{
  "study": "Blue Origin $130B valuation — Ohio live panel (reactive)",
  "news_hook": "LinkedIn News: Blue Origin eyes $130B valuation (July 8, 2026)",
  "run_started_at": "2026-07-08T22:01:46.416Z",
  "run_finished_at": "2026-07-08T22:04:43.008Z",
  "audience": {
    "label": "Ohio live panel (seed_ohio agents from ls_agents)",
    "market_id": "ohio",
    "n_requested": 2000,
    "n_sampled": 2000,
    "pct_with_persistent_beliefs": 100,
    "confidence_class": "benchmarked",
    "disclosure": "Live Ohio agents with persistent beliefs/salience where seeded. Synthetic panel methodology; not a probability sample. Reactive news read, not investment advice."
  },
  "methodology": {
    "model": "lewis-v17",
    "pipeline": "sampleAgentsForMarket(ohio) → buildStandardStudyContext (Sonnet + Brave) → dateline + news stimulus → runWave → applyTypeCalibration",
    "temporal_grounding": [
      "Today is Tuesday, July 8, 2026.",
      "News context: Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin is exploring its first outside funding round at roughly a $130 billion valuation, positioning against Elon Musk's SpaceX. SpaceX carries a much higher reported private valuation and operates the Starlink satellite internet business.",
      "Sonnet local brief per question (LEWIS_SONNET_CONTEXT=1)"
    ],
    "calibration": "classifyQuestionType + Dirichlet applyTypeCalibration"
  },
  "questions": [
    {
      "id": "q1_blue_valuation",
      "question": "Reports say Blue Origin may raise outside funding at about a $130 billion valuation. Which comes closest to your view?",
      "options": [
        "Way too high for what the company has delivered so far",
        "High, but reasonable if they eventually compete with SpaceX",
        "About right — private space is worth that much",
        "Too low — space will be a trillion-dollar industry",
        "Don't know enough to say"
      ],
      "question_type": "local_niche",
      "n_responses": 2000,
      "context": {
        "dateline": "Today is Tuesday, July 8, 2026.",
        "news_stimulus": "News context: Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin is exploring its first outside funding round at roughly a $130 billion valuation, positioning against Elon Musk's SpaceX. SpaceX carries a much higher reported private valuation and operates the Starlink satellite internet business.",
        "sonnet_brief": "Blue Origin is the private space company founded by Amazon's Jeff Bezos in 2000, headquartered in Kent, Washington, with significant operations in Texas and Florida. The company focuses on developing reusable rockets for space tourism and cargo missions, with its New Shepard vehicle conducting suborbital flights and the larger New Glenn rocket designed for orbital missions. Blue Origin competes in the commercial space industry alongside companies like SpaceX, Virgin Galactic, and traditional aerospace contractors, though it has achieved fewer high-profile milestones than some competitors. The company has secured contracts with NASA and other clients but has faced delays in some major projects. Supporters view Blue Origin as a long-term player building sustainable space infrastructure with significant financial backing; critics argue the company has been slow to deliver on ambitious timelines and lags behind competitors in operational achievements.",
        "brand_context_used": false
      },
      "distribution_calibrated": [
        {
          "option": "Way too high for what the company has delivered so far",
          "count": 1686,
          "pct": 84.4
        },
        {
          "option": "High, but reasonable if they eventually compete with SpaceX",
          "count": 247,
          "pct": 12.3
        },
        {
          "option": "About right — private space is worth that much",
          "count": 35,
          "pct": 1.7
        },
        {
          "option": "Too low — space will be a trillion-dollar industry",
          "count": 26,
          "pct": 1.3
        },
        {
          "option": "Don't know enough to say",
          "count": 6,
          "pct": 0.3
        }
      ],
      "crosstabs": {
        "party": [
          {
            "label": "Democrat",
            "dist": [
              71.4,
              20.2,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 622
          },
          {
            "label": "Independent",
            "dist": [
              73.1,
              18.3,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.9
            ],
            "n": 485
          },
          {
            "label": "Republican",
            "dist": [
              80.7,
              11,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 760
          }
        ],
        "age": [
          {
            "label": "18–34",
            "dist": [
              63,
              28.7,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 594
          },
          {
            "label": "35–54",
            "dist": [
              76,
              15.6,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 630
          },
          {
            "label": "55+",
            "dist": [
              86.4,
              5.1,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 776
          }
        ],
        "gender": [
          {
            "label": "Men",
            "dist": [
              75.2,
              16.5,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 961
          },
          {
            "label": "Women",
            "dist": [
              76.9,
              14.6,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 1039
          }
        ],
        "income": [
          {
            "label": "Under $25k",
            "dist": [
              89.2,
              2.7,
              2.7,
              2.7,
              2.7
            ],
            "n": 568
          },
          {
            "label": "$25k–$75k",
            "dist": [
              86,
              5.7,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 691
          },
          {
            "label": "$75k–$150k",
            "dist": [
              64.4,
              26.5,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              3.5
            ],
            "n": 435
          },
          {
            "label": "$150k+",
            "dist": [
              41.3,
              50.4,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 306
          }
        ],
        "education": [
          {
            "label": "HS or less",
            "dist": [
              78.4,
              13.2,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 1143
          },
          {
            "label": "Some college",
            "dist": [
              75.8,
              15.8,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 460
          },
          {
            "label": "College grad",
            "dist": [
              69.5,
              22.1,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 286
          },
          {
            "label": "Post-grad",
            "dist": [
              70.3,
              21.5,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 111
          }
        ],
        "party_group": [
          {
            "label": "Dem/lean D",
            "dist": [
              76.4,
              21.5,
              0,
              0,
              2.1
            ],
            "n": 622
          },
          {
            "label": "Independent",
            "dist": [
              77.5,
              19.4,
              0,
              0,
              3.1
            ],
            "n": 485
          },
          {
            "label": "Rep/lean R",
            "dist": [
              87.6,
              12,
              0,
              0,
              0.4
            ],
            "n": 760
          }
        ]
      },
      "signal": {
        "signal_score": 0.6764414612641367,
        "signal_label": "Strong",
        "signal_bars": 3,
        "reliability_score": 0.55,
        "reliability_label": "Medium",
        "reliability_tooltip": "Some demographic divergence detected — interpret with context.",
        "clarity_score": 0.8309810250314149,
        "clarity_label": "Clear",
        "clarity_tooltip": "A strong majority of agents aligned on this option.",
        "within_moe": false,
        "dominant_result": false,
        "not_sure_top": false
      },
      "elapsed_s": 61.3
    },
    {
      "id": "q2_more_inflated",
      "question": "SpaceX has been reported at a much higher private valuation than Blue Origin and already runs Starlink. Which company's valuation sounds MORE inflated relative to what it has actually delivered?",
      "options": [
        "SpaceX's valuation is more inflated",
        "Blue Origin's valuation is more inflated",
        "Both sound similarly overhyped",
        "Neither — both are justified",
        "Don't know enough to say"
      ],
      "question_type": "brand_national",
      "n_responses": 2000,
      "context": {
        "dateline": "Today is Tuesday, July 8, 2026.",
        "news_stimulus": "News context: Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin is exploring its first outside funding round at roughly a $130 billion valuation, positioning against Elon Musk's SpaceX. SpaceX carries a much higher reported private valuation and operates the Starlink satellite internet business.",
        "sonnet_brief": "SpaceX, founded by Elon Musk, is a private aerospace company that develops rockets and spacecraft, operates the Starlink satellite internet service, and holds contracts with NASA and the military for launches and missions. Blue Origin, founded by Amazon's Jeff Bezos, is also a private space company focused on rocket development and space tourism, though it has conducted fewer orbital missions to date. Both companies are privately held, meaning their valuations are set by private investors rather than public stock markets, and both compete in the growing commercial space industry alongside traditional contractors like Boeing and Lockheed Martin. The space sector has attracted significant venture capital and private investment in recent years as companies pursue opportunities in satellite services, space tourism, and government contracts.",
        "brand_context_used": false
      },
      "distribution_calibrated": [
        {
          "option": "SpaceX's valuation is more inflated",
          "count": 650,
          "pct": 32.5
        },
        {
          "option": "Blue Origin's valuation is more inflated",
          "count": 1225,
          "pct": 61.2
        },
        {
          "option": "Both sound similarly overhyped",
          "count": 59,
          "pct": 3
        },
        {
          "option": "Neither — both are justified",
          "count": 42,
          "pct": 2.1
        },
        {
          "option": "Don't know enough to say",
          "count": 24,
          "pct": 1.2
        }
      ],
      "crosstabs": {
        "party": [
          {
            "label": "Democrat",
            "dist": [
              24.5,
              67.3,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 622
          },
          {
            "label": "Independent",
            "dist": [
              14.6,
              77.1,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 485
          },
          {
            "label": "Republican",
            "dist": [
              9.2,
              82.6,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 760
          }
        ],
        "age": [
          {
            "label": "18–34",
            "dist": [
              18.2,
              73.5,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 594
          },
          {
            "label": "35–54",
            "dist": [
              13.7,
              78.1,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 630
          },
          {
            "label": "55+",
            "dist": [
              16.5,
              75.2,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 776
          }
        ],
        "gender": [
          {
            "label": "Men",
            "dist": [
              17.9,
              73.9,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 961
          },
          {
            "label": "Women",
            "dist": [
              14.5,
              77.2,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 1039
          }
        ],
        "income": [
          {
            "label": "Under $25k",
            "dist": [
              14.4,
              77.3,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 568
          },
          {
            "label": "$25k–$75k",
            "dist": [
              16.3,
              75.4,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 691
          },
          {
            "label": "$75k–$150k",
            "dist": [
              18.6,
              73.2,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 435
          },
          {
            "label": "$150k+",
            "dist": [
              15.3,
              76.5,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 306
          }
        ],
        "education": [
          {
            "label": "HS or less",
            "dist": [
              12.8,
              78.9,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 1143
          },
          {
            "label": "Some college",
            "dist": [
              18.9,
              72.8,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 460
          },
          {
            "label": "College grad",
            "dist": [
              18.9,
              72.8,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 286
          },
          {
            "label": "Post-grad",
            "dist": [
              31.4,
              60.3,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 111
          }
        ],
        "party_group": [
          {
            "label": "Dem/lean D",
            "dist": [
              26.7,
              73.3,
              0,
              0,
              0
            ],
            "n": 622
          },
          {
            "label": "Independent",
            "dist": [
              15.9,
              83.9,
              0.2,
              0,
              0
            ],
            "n": 485
          },
          {
            "label": "Rep/lean R",
            "dist": [
              10,
              90,
              0,
              0,
              0
            ],
            "n": 760
          }
        ]
      },
      "signal": {
        "signal_score": 0.743190957326846,
        "signal_label": "Strong",
        "signal_bars": 3,
        "reliability_score": 0.8787240912061953,
        "reliability_label": "Very High",
        "reliability_tooltip": "Lewis's panel produced a consistent, stable result across all demographic subgroups.",
        "clarity_score": 0.5775393492520856,
        "clarity_label": "Modest Lean",
        "clarity_tooltip": "One option leads, but a meaningful minority disagrees.",
        "within_moe": false,
        "dominant_result": false,
        "not_sure_top": false
      },
      "elapsed_s": 55.3
    },
    {
      "id": "q3_what_justifies",
      "question": "When you hear about a private space company valued above $100 billion, which factor matters MOST to you in justifying that number?",
      "options": [
        "Proven revenue businesses like satellite internet",
        "Launch contracts and NASA/government work",
        "The founder's capital and long-term vision",
        "None of these justify numbers that large",
        "Not sure"
      ],
      "question_type": "brand_national",
      "n_responses": 2000,
      "context": {
        "dateline": "Today is Tuesday, July 8, 2026.",
        "news_stimulus": "News context: Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin is exploring its first outside funding round at roughly a $130 billion valuation, positioning against Elon Musk's SpaceX. SpaceX carries a much higher reported private valuation and operates the Starlink satellite internet business.",
        "sonnet_brief": "Private space companies have emerged as a major sector in recent years, with several firms achieving multi-billion dollar valuations through activities including satellite launches, government contracts with NASA and the military, and commercial services like satellite internet. These companies typically generate revenue through launch services for other organizations, government partnerships for space missions, and direct-to-consumer offerings such as broadband internet via satellite constellations. The sector has attracted significant private investment, with valuations often based on projected future growth rather than current profitability. Business groups and technology investors typically emphasize the companies' innovation potential and expanding market opportunities; skeptics argue that current valuations may exceed what the underlying business fundamentals can support given the capital-intensive nature of space operations and uncertain long-term profitability.",
        "brand_context_used": false
      },
      "distribution_calibrated": [
        {
          "option": "Proven revenue businesses like satellite internet",
          "count": 335,
          "pct": 16.8
        },
        {
          "option": "Launch contracts and NASA/government work",
          "count": 329,
          "pct": 16.4
        },
        {
          "option": "The founder's capital and long-term vision",
          "count": 141,
          "pct": 7.1
        },
        {
          "option": "None of these justify numbers that large",
          "count": 1164,
          "pct": 58.2
        },
        {
          "option": "Not sure",
          "count": 30,
          "pct": 1.5
        }
      ],
      "crosstabs": {
        "party": [
          {
            "label": "Democrat",
            "dist": [
              2.8,
              3.9,
              2.8,
              87.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 622
          },
          {
            "label": "Independent",
            "dist": [
              2.8,
              2.8,
              2.8,
              89,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 485
          },
          {
            "label": "Republican",
            "dist": [
              2.8,
              9,
              2.8,
              82.7,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 760
          }
        ],
        "age": [
          {
            "label": "18–34",
            "dist": [
              2.8,
              6.3,
              2.8,
              85.2,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 594
          },
          {
            "label": "35–54",
            "dist": [
              2.8,
              6,
              2.8,
              85.6,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 630
          },
          {
            "label": "55+",
            "dist": [
              2.8,
              3.4,
              2.8,
              88.3,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 776
          }
        ],
        "gender": [
          {
            "label": "Men",
            "dist": [
              2.8,
              7.3,
              2.8,
              84.3,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 961
          },
          {
            "label": "Women",
            "dist": [
              2.8,
              3,
              2.8,
              88.6,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 1039
          }
        ],
        "income": [
          {
            "label": "Under $25k",
            "dist": [
              2.7,
              2.7,
              2.7,
              89.2,
              2.7
            ],
            "n": 568
          },
          {
            "label": "$25k–$75k",
            "dist": [
              2.8,
              3.3,
              2.8,
              88.4,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 691
          },
          {
            "label": "$75k–$150k",
            "dist": [
              2.8,
              6.8,
              2.8,
              84.8,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 435
          },
          {
            "label": "$150k+",
            "dist": [
              4.3,
              14.6,
              2.8,
              75.4,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 306
          }
        ],
        "education": [
          {
            "label": "HS or less",
            "dist": [
              2.8,
              4.4,
              2.8,
              87.3,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 1143
          },
          {
            "label": "Some college",
            "dist": [
              2.8,
              6.1,
              2.8,
              85.6,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 460
          },
          {
            "label": "College grad",
            "dist": [
              2.8,
              6.2,
              2.8,
              85.4,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 286
          },
          {
            "label": "Post-grad",
            "dist": [
              2.8,
              5.9,
              2.8,
              85.7,
              2.8
            ],
            "n": 111
          }
        ],
        "party_group": [
          {
            "label": "Dem/lean D",
            "dist": [
              1.1,
              4.2,
              0,
              94.7,
              0
            ],
            "n": 622
          },
          {
            "label": "Independent",
            "dist": [
              1.6,
              1.6,
              0,
              96.7,
              0
            ],
            "n": 485
          },
          {
            "label": "Rep/lean R",
            "dist": [
              0.4,
              9.7,
              0.3,
              89.6,
              0
            ],
            "n": 760
          }
        ]
      },
      "signal": {
        "signal_score": 0.7810934290271871,
        "signal_label": "Very Strong",
        "signal_bars": 4,
        "reliability_score": 0.8973466661478721,
        "reliability_label": "Very High",
        "reliability_tooltip": "Lewis's panel produced a consistent, stable result across all demographic subgroups.",
        "clarity_score": 0.6390061392130166,
        "clarity_label": "Modest Lean",
        "clarity_tooltip": "One option leads, but a meaningful minority disagrees.",
        "within_moe": false,
        "dominant_result": false,
        "not_sure_top": false
      },
      "elapsed_s": 58.9
    }
  ]
}