{
 "study": "The Lewsearch Report, Issue 03 \u2014 2026 U.S. Senate Pre-Registration",
 "published": "2026-07-30",
 "pre_registration": {
  "frozen_at_local": "2026-07-29 18:08 EDT (Tier 1) / 18:42 EDT (Tier 2 amendment)",
  "git_commits": [
   {
    "hash": "b7c50f3",
    "at": "2026-07-29 18:08:35 -0400",
    "what": "Tier 1 questions frozen (GA Ossoff/Collins, OH Brown/Husted, TX Talarico/Paxton)"
   },
   {
    "hash": "ad9e2c0",
    "at": "2026-07-29 18:10:14 -0400",
    "what": "Panel amendment: statewide pools (georgia/ohio/texas) instead of metro pools; wording unchanged. Committed before full fielding (only a 12-agent GA pilot had run)."
   },
   {
    "hash": "979867c",
    "at": "2026-07-29 18:42:29 -0400",
    "what": "Tier 2 added and frozen before Tier 2 fielding (NC Cooper/Whatley, ME Collins/Jackson). MI excluded until its Aug 4 primary resolves."
   }
  ],
  "fielded_at_local": "Tier 1: 2026-07-29 18:11-18:14 EDT. Tier 2: 18:42-18:44 EDT.",
  "resolution": "Certified 2026 general/special election results, November 3, 2026"
 },
 "methodology": {
  "model": "lewis-v17",
  "scoring": "first_token_logprobs",
  "inference": "first-token logprobs over answer letters, renormalized (top_logprobs=10, max_tokens=1, T=1.0); each respondent contributes a full probability distribution over options \u2014 the same method as the published router-parity benchmark",
  "aggregation": "toplines are the mean of per-respondent distributions; crosstab cells are probability-weighted sums within each group",
  "option_order": "per-respondent randomized option order",
  "dateline": "Today's date is July 30, 2026. Answer based on how you feel as of this date \u2014 not based on events after it.",
  "system_prompt_mode": "policy (all questions)",
  "calibration": "floor + Dirichlet-ODIR calibration (electoral bucket), applied to toplines",
  "uncertainty": "95% bootstrap CI, 1000 respondent resamples, calibration re-applied per resample",
  "published_error_rate": "7.47% mean absolute error on 418 ex-electoral questions of a 460-question benchmark vs real polls (Pew, Gallup, UT/Texas Politics Project, PPIC); electoral questions use a separate calibration bucket",
  "disclosure": "Synthetic panel of AI respondents. No humans were interviewed. Tier 1 (GA/OH/TX): statewide live panels (ls_agents) with persistent memory, daily news injection, and regional training corpus. Tier 2 (NC/ME): census-weighted agents generated from ACS REGIONAL frames (South/Northeast), relabeled to the state with a residency line; party mix reflects regional priors, not state party registration - directional only. All questions are unbenchmarked and pre-registered. Known instrument effect: the panel allocates far less probability mass to 'Undecided' than human polls do; two-way vote share is the primary pre-registered metric. Michigan excluded until its Aug 4 primary resolves."
 },
 "markets": [
  {
   "study": "The Lewsearch Report, Issue 03 \u2014 2026 U.S. Senate",
   "market_id": "ga",
   "state": "Georgia",
   "tier": 1,
   "run_finished_at": "2026-07-29T22:11:06.581100+00:00",
   "panel": {
    "supabase_city": "georgia",
    "panel_label": "Georgia statewide live panel (ls_agents)",
    "panel_size": 20638,
    "sample_n": 1000,
    "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=42"
   },
   "methodology": {
    "model": "lewis-v17",
    "scoring": "first_token_logprobs",
    "dateline": "Today's date is July 30, 2026. Answer based on how you feel as of this date \u2014 not based on events after it.",
    "calibration": "floor eps=0.03 + Dirichlet-ODIR, electoral bucket",
    "scaffold": "cursor-2026-07-29-directional"
   },
   "elapsed_seconds": 15.1,
   "response_rate": 1.0,
   "questions": [
    {
     "id": "ga_senate_matchup_2026",
     "benchmark_qid": null,
     "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Jon Ossoff or Republican Mike Collins?",
     "options": [
      "Jon Ossoff",
      "Mike Collins",
      "Undecided"
     ],
     "question_type": "electoral",
     "mode": "policy",
     "dem_option_indices": [
      0
     ],
     "human_benchmark_gt": null,
     "review_notes": "Verified 2026-07-29: Mike Collins won the GOP runoff Jun 16, 2026 (55.5% over Dooley); Buddy Carter was eliminated in the May 19 primary. Prior Emerson Ossoff/Carter benchmark question is a different matchup and no longer applies. Resolves against certified GA general-election result, Nov 3, 2026."
    }
   ],
   "results": {
    "ga_senate_matchup_2026": {
     "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Jon Ossoff or Republican Mike Collins?",
     "options": [
      "Jon Ossoff",
      "Mike Collins",
      "Undecided"
     ],
     "benchmark_qid": null,
     "human_benchmark_gt": null,
     "review_notes": "Verified 2026-07-29: Mike Collins won the GOP runoff Jun 16, 2026 (55.5% over Dooley); Buddy Carter was eliminated in the May 19 primary. Prior Emerson Ossoff/Carter benchmark question is a different matchup and no longer applies. Resolves against certified GA general-election result, Nov 3, 2026.",
     "n_answered": 1000,
     "weight_sums": [
      572.694521,
      405.76796,
      21.537561
     ],
     "raw_pct": {
      "Jon Ossoff": 57.3,
      "Mike Collins": 40.6,
      "Undecided": 2.2
     },
     "calibrated_pct": {
      "Jon Ossoff": 55.7,
      "Mike Collins": 44.2,
      "Undecided": 0.1
     },
     "dem_vote_share_raw_pct": 57.3,
     "dem_vote_share_calibrated_pct": 55.7,
     "calibration_meta": {
      "category": "electoral",
      "bucket_key": "electoral__3",
      "match": "exact",
      "expected_mae_pp": 10.203,
      "branch": "dirichlet_odir"
     },
     "crosstabs": {
      "party": {
       "Democrat": {
        "n": 339,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Jon Ossoff": 99.2,
         "Mike Collins": 0.3,
         "Undecided": 0.5
        }
       },
       "Independent": {
        "n": 181,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Jon Ossoff": 83.6,
         "Mike Collins": 10.3,
         "Undecided": 6.1
        }
       },
       "Other/Apolitical": {
        "n": 76,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Jon Ossoff": 79.3,
         "Mike Collins": 12.1,
         "Undecided": 8.6
        }
       },
       "Republican": {
        "n": 404,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Jon Ossoff": 6.1,
         "Mike Collins": 93.3,
         "Undecided": 0.5
        }
       }
      },
      "age": {
       "18-34": {
        "n": 298,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Jon Ossoff": 61.2,
         "Mike Collins": 36.3,
         "Undecided": 2.5
        }
       },
       "35-54": {
        "n": 266,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Jon Ossoff": 52.5,
         "Mike Collins": 45.2,
         "Undecided": 2.2
        }
       },
       "55-64": {
        "n": 151,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Jon Ossoff": 56.4,
         "Mike Collins": 40.9,
         "Undecided": 2.8
        }
       },
       "65+": {
        "n": 285,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Jon Ossoff": 58.1,
         "Mike Collins": 40.5,
         "Undecided": 1.4
        }
       }
      },
      "income": {
       "$125k or more": {
        "n": 172,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Jon Ossoff": 52.9,
         "Mike Collins": 45.8,
         "Undecided": 1.3
        }
       },
       "$35k-$74,999": {
        "n": 324,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Jon Ossoff": 62.0,
         "Mike Collins": 36.0,
         "Undecided": 2.0
        }
       },
       "$75k-$124,999": {
        "n": 234,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Jon Ossoff": 57.0,
         "Mike Collins": 40.0,
         "Undecided": 3.0
        }
       },
       "Under $35k": {
        "n": 270,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Jon Ossoff": 54.6,
         "Mike Collins": 43.3,
         "Undecided": 2.1
        }
       }
      }
     },
     "bootstrap": {
      "n_bootstrap": 1000,
      "dem_share_raw_ci95_pct": [
       54.4,
       60.0
      ],
      "dem_share_calibrated_ci95_pct": [
       53.3,
       58.1
      ]
     }
    }
   },
   "polling_context_at_publish": {
    "label": "Recent public polls (Ossoff vs Collins)",
    "detail": "Wick Jun 27-30: Ossoff +4 (47/43); Beacon/Shaw Jun 23-27: Ossoff +13 (56/43); Echelon Apr: Ossoff +7.",
    "dem_margin_pp": "+4 to +13"
   }
  },
  {
   "study": "The Lewsearch Report, Issue 03 \u2014 2026 U.S. Senate",
   "market_id": "oh",
   "state": "Ohio",
   "tier": 1,
   "run_finished_at": "2026-07-29T22:11:31.419908+00:00",
   "panel": {
    "supabase_city": "ohio",
    "panel_label": "Ohio statewide live panel (ls_agents)",
    "panel_size": 20638,
    "sample_n": 1000,
    "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=42"
   },
   "methodology": {
    "model": "lewis-v17",
    "scoring": "first_token_logprobs",
    "dateline": "Today's date is July 30, 2026. Answer based on how you feel as of this date \u2014 not based on events after it.",
    "calibration": "floor eps=0.03 + Dirichlet-ODIR, electoral bucket",
    "scaffold": "cursor-2026-07-29-directional"
   },
   "elapsed_seconds": 16.6,
   "response_rate": 1.0,
   "questions": [
    {
     "id": "oh_senate_matchup_2026",
     "benchmark_qid": "marietta_times_brown_husted_senate_mar_2026",
     "question": "If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, whom would you support?",
     "options": [
      "Sherrod Brown (D)",
      "Jon Husted (R)",
      "Undecided"
     ],
     "question_type": "electoral",
     "mode": "policy",
     "dem_option_indices": [
      0
     ],
     "human_benchmark_gt": [
      0.47,
      0.45,
      0.08
     ],
     "review_notes": "Verified 2026-07-29: this is the 2026 OH special election (Vance's former seat). Brown won the Dem primary with 89.4%; Husted is the appointed GOP incumbent. Matchup and benchmark wording are current. Reference poll: Mar 2026 (47/45/8); Jul 2026 polling averages ~Brown +1.3. Resolves against certified OH special-election result, Nov 3, 2026."
    }
   ],
   "results": {
    "oh_senate_matchup_2026": {
     "question": "If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, whom would you support?",
     "options": [
      "Sherrod Brown (D)",
      "Jon Husted (R)",
      "Undecided"
     ],
     "benchmark_qid": "marietta_times_brown_husted_senate_mar_2026",
     "human_benchmark_gt": [
      0.47,
      0.45,
      0.08
     ],
     "review_notes": "Verified 2026-07-29: this is the 2026 OH special election (Vance's former seat). Brown won the Dem primary with 89.4%; Husted is the appointed GOP incumbent. Matchup and benchmark wording are current. Reference poll: Mar 2026 (47/45/8); Jul 2026 polling averages ~Brown +1.3. Resolves against certified OH special-election result, Nov 3, 2026.",
     "n_answered": 1000,
     "weight_sums": [
      603.065687,
      363.554758,
      33.379571
     ],
     "raw_pct": {
      "Sherrod Brown (D)": 60.3,
      "Jon Husted (R)": 36.4,
      "Undecided": 3.3
     },
     "calibrated_pct": {
      "Sherrod Brown (D)": 59.1,
      "Jon Husted (R)": 40.7,
      "Undecided": 0.1
     },
     "dem_vote_share_raw_pct": 60.3,
     "dem_vote_share_calibrated_pct": 59.1,
     "calibration_meta": {
      "category": "electoral",
      "bucket_key": "electoral__3",
      "match": "exact",
      "expected_mae_pp": 10.203,
      "branch": "dirichlet_odir"
     },
     "crosstabs": {
      "party": {
       "Democrat": {
        "n": 326,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Sherrod Brown (D)": 99.1,
         "Jon Husted (R)": 0.2,
         "Undecided": 0.7
        }
       },
       "Independent": {
        "n": 243,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Sherrod Brown (D)": 86.0,
         "Jon Husted (R)": 5.3,
         "Undecided": 8.7
        }
       },
       "Other/Apolitical": {
        "n": 54,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Sherrod Brown (D)": 87.1,
         "Jon Husted (R)": 3.7,
         "Undecided": 9.2
        }
       },
       "Republican": {
        "n": 377,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Sherrod Brown (D)": 6.4,
         "Jon Husted (R)": 92.3,
         "Undecided": 1.4
        }
       }
      },
      "age": {
       "18-34": {
        "n": 276,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Sherrod Brown (D)": 60.1,
         "Jon Husted (R)": 35.2,
         "Undecided": 4.6
        }
       },
       "35-54": {
        "n": 333,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Sherrod Brown (D)": 57.9,
         "Jon Husted (R)": 38.6,
         "Undecided": 3.5
        }
       },
       "55-64": {
        "n": 153,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Sherrod Brown (D)": 66.9,
         "Jon Husted (R)": 30.4,
         "Undecided": 2.7
        }
       },
       "65+": {
        "n": 238,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Sherrod Brown (D)": 59.6,
         "Jon Husted (R)": 38.4,
         "Undecided": 2.0
        }
       }
      },
      "income": {
       "$125k or more": {
        "n": 170,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Sherrod Brown (D)": 60.7,
         "Jon Husted (R)": 36.3,
         "Undecided": 3.0
        }
       },
       "$35k-$74,999": {
        "n": 360,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Sherrod Brown (D)": 64.4,
         "Jon Husted (R)": 32.2,
         "Undecided": 3.4
        }
       },
       "$75k-$124,999": {
        "n": 226,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Sherrod Brown (D)": 58.4,
         "Jon Husted (R)": 38.3,
         "Undecided": 3.3
        }
       },
       "Under $35k": {
        "n": 244,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Sherrod Brown (D)": 55.7,
         "Jon Husted (R)": 40.8,
         "Undecided": 3.5
        }
       }
      }
     },
     "bootstrap": {
      "n_bootstrap": 1000,
      "dem_share_raw_ci95_pct": [
       57.9,
       63.3
      ],
      "dem_share_calibrated_ci95_pct": [
       57.0,
       61.8
      ]
     }
    }
   },
   "polling_context_at_publish": {
    "label": "Polling averages (Brown vs Husted), early Jul 2026",
    "detail": "270toWin avg Jul 3: Brown 48.0 / Husted 46.7 (Brown +1.3); DDHQ Brown +1.5; Race to the WH Brown +0.8.",
    "dem_margin_pp": "+1.3"
   }
  },
  {
   "study": "The Lewsearch Report, Issue 03 \u2014 2026 U.S. Senate",
   "market_id": "tx",
   "state": "Texas",
   "tier": 1,
   "run_finished_at": "2026-07-29T22:11:52.673621+00:00",
   "panel": {
    "supabase_city": "texas",
    "panel_label": "Texas statewide live panel (ls_agents)",
    "panel_size": 20637,
    "sample_n": 1000,
    "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=42"
   },
   "methodology": {
    "model": "lewis-v17",
    "scoring": "first_token_logprobs",
    "dateline": "Today's date is July 30, 2026. Answer based on how you feel as of this date \u2014 not based on events after it.",
    "calibration": "floor eps=0.03 + Dirichlet-ODIR, electoral bucket",
    "scaffold": "cursor-2026-07-29-directional"
   },
   "elapsed_seconds": 14.4,
   "response_rate": 1.0,
   "questions": [
    {
     "id": "tx_senate_matchup_2026",
     "benchmark_qid": null,
     "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat James Talarico or Republican Ken Paxton?",
     "options": [
      "James Talarico",
      "Ken Paxton",
      "Undecided"
     ],
     "question_type": "electoral",
     "mode": "policy",
     "dem_option_indices": [
      0
     ],
     "human_benchmark_gt": null,
     "review_notes": "Verified 2026-07-29: scaffold's Dem-primary question was stale \u2014 Talarico won the primary Mar 3, 2026 (52.4%, no runoff) and Paxton defeated Cornyn in the GOP runoff May 26, 2026 (63.8%). Fielding the actual general-election matchup instead. Resolves against certified TX general-election result, Nov 3, 2026."
    }
   ],
   "results": {
    "tx_senate_matchup_2026": {
     "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat James Talarico or Republican Ken Paxton?",
     "options": [
      "James Talarico",
      "Ken Paxton",
      "Undecided"
     ],
     "benchmark_qid": null,
     "human_benchmark_gt": null,
     "review_notes": "Verified 2026-07-29: scaffold's Dem-primary question was stale \u2014 Talarico won the primary Mar 3, 2026 (52.4%, no runoff) and Paxton defeated Cornyn in the GOP runoff May 26, 2026 (63.8%). Fielding the actual general-election matchup instead. Resolves against certified TX general-election result, Nov 3, 2026.",
     "n_answered": 1000,
     "weight_sums": [
      436.516087,
      547.768236,
      15.715689
     ],
     "raw_pct": {
      "James Talarico": 43.7,
      "Ken Paxton": 54.8,
      "Undecided": 1.6
     },
     "calibrated_pct": {
      "James Talarico": 44.6,
      "Ken Paxton": 55.3,
      "Undecided": 0.1
     },
     "dem_vote_share_raw_pct": 43.7,
     "dem_vote_share_calibrated_pct": 44.6,
     "calibration_meta": {
      "category": "electoral",
      "bucket_key": "electoral__3",
      "match": "exact",
      "expected_mae_pp": 10.203,
      "branch": "dirichlet_odir"
     },
     "crosstabs": {
      "party": {
       "Democrat": {
        "n": 292,
        "raw_pct": {
         "James Talarico": 97.9,
         "Ken Paxton": 1.4,
         "Undecided": 0.8
        }
       },
       "Independent": {
        "n": 153,
        "raw_pct": {
         "James Talarico": 57.4,
         "Ken Paxton": 37.6,
         "Undecided": 4.9
        }
       },
       "Other/Apolitical": {
        "n": 77,
        "raw_pct": {
         "James Talarico": 56.3,
         "Ken Paxton": 38.2,
         "Undecided": 5.5
        }
       },
       "Republican": {
        "n": 478,
        "raw_pct": {
         "James Talarico": 4.1,
         "Ken Paxton": 95.6,
         "Undecided": 0.4
        }
       }
      },
      "age": {
       "18-34": {
        "n": 347,
        "raw_pct": {
         "James Talarico": 51.6,
         "Ken Paxton": 46.2,
         "Undecided": 2.2
        }
       },
       "35-54": {
        "n": 293,
        "raw_pct": {
         "James Talarico": 43.9,
         "Ken Paxton": 54.7,
         "Undecided": 1.4
        }
       },
       "55-64": {
        "n": 172,
        "raw_pct": {
         "James Talarico": 37.2,
         "Ken Paxton": 61.7,
         "Undecided": 1.1
        }
       },
       "65+": {
        "n": 188,
        "raw_pct": {
         "James Talarico": 34.4,
         "Ken Paxton": 64.5,
         "Undecided": 1.1
        }
       }
      },
      "income": {
       "$125k or more": {
        "n": 162,
        "raw_pct": {
         "James Talarico": 53.2,
         "Ken Paxton": 45.5,
         "Undecided": 1.3
        }
       },
       "$35k-$74,999": {
        "n": 374,
        "raw_pct": {
         "James Talarico": 40.9,
         "Ken Paxton": 57.6,
         "Undecided": 1.5
        }
       },
       "$75k-$124,999": {
        "n": 250,
        "raw_pct": {
         "James Talarico": 43.2,
         "Ken Paxton": 55.4,
         "Undecided": 1.4
        }
       },
       "Under $35k": {
        "n": 214,
        "raw_pct": {
         "James Talarico": 41.8,
         "Ken Paxton": 56.2,
         "Undecided": 2.0
        }
       }
      }
     },
     "bootstrap": {
      "n_bootstrap": 1000,
      "dem_share_raw_ci95_pct": [
       40.7,
       46.2
      ],
      "dem_share_calibrated_ci95_pct": [
       42.3,
       46.6
      ]
     }
    }
   },
   "polling_context_at_publish": {
    "label": "Polling averages (Paxton vs Talarico), Jul 2026",
    "detail": "Aggregate of Apr-Jun polls: Talarico 45.4 / Paxton 45.0 (Talarico +0.4). NYT/Siena Jun: tied 47/47.",
    "dem_margin_pp": "+0.4"
   }
  },
  {
   "study": "The Lewsearch Report, Issue 03 \u2014 2026 U.S. Senate",
   "market_id": "nc",
   "state": "North Carolina",
   "tier": 2,
   "run_finished_at": "2026-07-29T22:43:00.989189+00:00",
   "panel": {
    "supabase_city": null,
    "agent_source": "census_generateAgent",
    "region_frame": "region_south",
    "panel_label": "Census-generated agents (ACS South region frame, state-relabeled)",
    "panel_size": 1000,
    "sample_n": 1000,
    "sampling": "census-weighted generation from ACS regional frame, seed=42"
   },
   "methodology": {
    "model": "lewis-v17",
    "scoring": "first_token_logprobs",
    "dateline": "Today's date is July 30, 2026. Answer based on how you feel as of this date \u2014 not based on events after it.\n\nYou live in North Carolina.",
    "calibration": "floor eps=0.03 + Dirichlet-ODIR, electoral bucket",
    "scaffold": "cursor-2026-07-29-directional"
   },
   "elapsed_seconds": 21.3,
   "response_rate": 1.0,
   "questions": [
    {
     "id": "nc_senate_matchup_2026",
     "benchmark_qid": null,
     "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Roy Cooper or Republican Michael Whatley?",
     "options": [
      "Roy Cooper",
      "Michael Whatley",
      "Undecided"
     ],
     "question_type": "electoral",
     "mode": "policy",
     "dem_option_indices": [
      0
     ],
     "human_benchmark_gt": null,
     "review_notes": "Verified 2026-07-29: open seat (Tillis retiring). Cooper won Dem primary (92%), Whatley won GOP primary (64.6%). Jul polling avg Cooper +8.4. Resolves against certified NC result Nov 3, 2026."
    }
   ],
   "results": {
    "nc_senate_matchup_2026": {
     "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Roy Cooper or Republican Michael Whatley?",
     "options": [
      "Roy Cooper",
      "Michael Whatley",
      "Undecided"
     ],
     "benchmark_qid": null,
     "human_benchmark_gt": null,
     "review_notes": "Verified 2026-07-29: open seat (Tillis retiring). Cooper won Dem primary (92%), Whatley won GOP primary (64.6%). Jul polling avg Cooper +8.4. Resolves against certified NC result Nov 3, 2026.",
     "n_answered": 1000,
     "weight_sums": [
      522.685828,
      457.120719,
      20.1935
     ],
     "raw_pct": {
      "Roy Cooper": 52.3,
      "Michael Whatley": 45.7,
      "Undecided": 2.0
     },
     "calibrated_pct": {
      "Roy Cooper": 51.6,
      "Michael Whatley": 48.3,
      "Undecided": 0.1
     },
     "dem_vote_share_raw_pct": 52.3,
     "dem_vote_share_calibrated_pct": 51.6,
     "calibration_meta": {
      "category": "electoral",
      "bucket_key": "electoral__3",
      "match": "exact",
      "expected_mae_pp": 10.203,
      "branch": "dirichlet_odir"
     },
     "crosstabs": {
      "party": {
       "Democrat": {
        "n": 319,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Roy Cooper": 98.9,
         "Michael Whatley": 0.3,
         "Undecided": 0.8
        }
       },
       "Independent": {
        "n": 158,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Roy Cooper": 87.7,
         "Michael Whatley": 5.7,
         "Undecided": 6.7
        }
       },
       "Other/Apolitical": {
        "n": 69,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Roy Cooper": 86.8,
         "Michael Whatley": 6.4,
         "Undecided": 6.8
        }
       },
       "Republican": {
        "n": 454,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Roy Cooper": 2.0,
         "Michael Whatley": 97.5,
         "Undecided": 0.5
        }
       }
      },
      "age": {
       "18-34": {
        "n": 286,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Roy Cooper": 49.6,
         "Michael Whatley": 47.3,
         "Undecided": 3.0
        }
       },
       "35-54": {
        "n": 314,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Roy Cooper": 51.8,
         "Michael Whatley": 46.3,
         "Undecided": 1.9
        }
       },
       "55-64": {
        "n": 177,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Roy Cooper": 54.5,
         "Michael Whatley": 43.9,
         "Undecided": 1.6
        }
       },
       "65+": {
        "n": 223,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Roy Cooper": 54.5,
         "Michael Whatley": 44.2,
         "Undecided": 1.3
        }
       }
      },
      "income": {
       "$125k or more": {
        "n": 348,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Roy Cooper": 50.5,
         "Michael Whatley": 48.0,
         "Undecided": 1.4
        }
       },
       "$35k-$74,999": {
        "n": 359,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Roy Cooper": 54.3,
         "Michael Whatley": 43.4,
         "Undecided": 2.4
        }
       },
       "$75k-$124,999": {
        "n": 120,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Roy Cooper": 52.2,
         "Michael Whatley": 45.7,
         "Undecided": 2.1
        }
       },
       "Under $35k": {
        "n": 173,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Roy Cooper": 51.7,
         "Michael Whatley": 45.9,
         "Undecided": 2.4
        }
       }
      }
     },
     "bootstrap": {
      "n_bootstrap": 1000,
      "dem_share_raw_ci95_pct": [
       49.4,
       55.3
      ],
      "dem_share_calibrated_ci95_pct": [
       49.2,
       54.1
      ]
     }
    }
   },
   "polling_context_at_publish": {
    "label": "Polling averages (Cooper vs Whatley), mid-Jul 2026",
    "detail": "Averages Jul 13: Cooper +8.4 (Race to the WH +7.4, 270toWin +10.5, RCP +7.3). PPP Jul 10-11: Cooper +4 (48/44).",
    "dem_margin_pp": "+8.4"
   }
  },
  {
   "study": "The Lewsearch Report, Issue 03 \u2014 2026 U.S. Senate",
   "market_id": "me",
   "state": "Maine",
   "tier": 2,
   "run_finished_at": "2026-07-29T22:43:15.556567+00:00",
   "panel": {
    "supabase_city": null,
    "agent_source": "census_generateAgent",
    "region_frame": "region_northeast",
    "panel_label": "Census-generated agents (ACS Northeast region frame, state-relabeled)",
    "panel_size": 1000,
    "sample_n": 1000,
    "sampling": "census-weighted generation from ACS regional frame, seed=42"
   },
   "methodology": {
    "model": "lewis-v17",
    "scoring": "first_token_logprobs",
    "dateline": "Today's date is July 30, 2026. Answer based on how you feel as of this date \u2014 not based on events after it.\n\nYou live in Maine.",
    "calibration": "floor eps=0.03 + Dirichlet-ODIR, electoral bucket",
    "scaffold": "cursor-2026-07-29-directional"
   },
   "elapsed_seconds": 14.5,
   "response_rate": 1.0,
   "questions": [
    {
     "id": "me_senate_matchup_2026",
     "benchmark_qid": null,
     "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Troy Jackson or Republican Susan Collins?",
     "options": [
      "Troy Jackson",
      "Susan Collins",
      "Undecided"
     ],
     "question_type": "electoral",
     "mode": "policy",
     "dem_option_indices": [
      0
     ],
     "human_benchmark_gt": null,
     "review_notes": "Verified 2026-07-29: Platner won the Jun 9 Dem primary but withdrew Jul 8; Maine Democratic Party nominated Troy Jackson at the Jul 25 convention. Collins is the five-term GOP incumbent. No public polling of this matchup exists yet. Resolves against certified ME result Nov 3, 2026."
    }
   ],
   "results": {
    "me_senate_matchup_2026": {
     "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Troy Jackson or Republican Susan Collins?",
     "options": [
      "Troy Jackson",
      "Susan Collins",
      "Undecided"
     ],
     "benchmark_qid": null,
     "human_benchmark_gt": null,
     "review_notes": "Verified 2026-07-29: Platner won the Jun 9 Dem primary but withdrew Jul 8; Maine Democratic Party nominated Troy Jackson at the Jul 25 convention. Collins is the five-term GOP incumbent. No public polling of this matchup exists yet. Resolves against certified ME result Nov 3, 2026.",
     "n_answered": 1000,
     "weight_sums": [
      299.031018,
      682.546952,
      18.422036
     ],
     "raw_pct": {
      "Troy Jackson": 29.9,
      "Susan Collins": 68.3,
      "Undecided": 1.8
     },
     "calibrated_pct": {
      "Troy Jackson": 34.0,
      "Susan Collins": 65.9,
      "Undecided": 0.1
     },
     "dem_vote_share_raw_pct": 29.9,
     "dem_vote_share_calibrated_pct": 34.0,
     "calibration_meta": {
      "category": "electoral",
      "bucket_key": "electoral__3",
      "match": "exact",
      "expected_mae_pp": 10.203,
      "branch": "dirichlet_odir"
     },
     "crosstabs": {
      "party": {
       "Democrat": {
        "n": 372,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Troy Jackson": 74.0,
         "Susan Collins": 24.7,
         "Undecided": 1.3
        }
       },
       "Independent": {
        "n": 168,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Troy Jackson": 7.6,
         "Susan Collins": 88.0,
         "Undecided": 4.4
        }
       },
       "Other/Apolitical": {
        "n": 118,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Troy Jackson": 7.6,
         "Susan Collins": 88.4,
         "Undecided": 4.0
        }
       },
       "Republican": {
        "n": 342,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Troy Jackson": 0.6,
         "Susan Collins": 98.9,
         "Undecided": 0.5
        }
       }
      },
      "age": {
       "18-34": {
        "n": 277,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Troy Jackson": 37.6,
         "Susan Collins": 59.2,
         "Undecided": 3.2
        }
       },
       "35-54": {
        "n": 302,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Troy Jackson": 30.9,
         "Susan Collins": 67.5,
         "Undecided": 1.6
        }
       },
       "55-64": {
        "n": 176,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Troy Jackson": 26.0,
         "Susan Collins": 72.9,
         "Undecided": 1.2
        }
       },
       "65+": {
        "n": 245,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Troy Jackson": 22.9,
         "Susan Collins": 76.1,
         "Undecided": 1.0
        }
       }
      },
      "income": {
       "$125k or more": {
        "n": 420,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Troy Jackson": 26.9,
         "Susan Collins": 71.7,
         "Undecided": 1.4
        }
       },
       "$35k-$74,999": {
        "n": 312,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Troy Jackson": 30.4,
         "Susan Collins": 67.7,
         "Undecided": 1.9
        }
       },
       "$75k-$124,999": {
        "n": 121,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Troy Jackson": 30.6,
         "Susan Collins": 66.8,
         "Undecided": 2.6
        }
       },
       "Under $35k": {
        "n": 147,
        "raw_pct": {
         "Troy Jackson": 36.7,
         "Susan Collins": 60.7,
         "Undecided": 2.5
        }
       }
      }
     },
     "bootstrap": {
      "n_bootstrap": 1000,
      "dem_share_raw_ci95_pct": [
       27.6,
       32.4
      ],
      "dem_share_calibrated_ci95_pct": [
       32.1,
       35.9
      ]
     }
    }
   },
   "polling_context_at_publish": {
    "label": "Collins vs Jackson - no public polling yet",
    "detail": "Jackson became the Democratic nominee July 25 (convention replacement after Platner withdrew July 8). No public poll of this matchup existed at pre-registration.",
    "dem_margin_pp": "n/a"
   }
  }
 ]
}