{ "study": "The Lewsearch Report, Issue 04 — 225 Pre-Registered Predictions for 2026–27", "published": "2026-09-01", "verdict": "pending", "status_label": "Pre-registered · resolves Jan 8, 2027", "n_questions": 225, "pre_registration": { "frozen_at_local": "2026-09-01 — official book is the 225 KEEP subset of v1. v1 item list remains the record at cbfa9db9ba0232d909142388a89a6853ab4bb5b52d105877c2d9957cc94ceab3. SHA-256 of this tree in commitment_issue_04_final.sha256. Lewis distributions are verbalized elicitation plus a probability floor; no temperature.", "git_commits": [ { "hash": null, "at": "2026-09-01", "what": "Issue 04 official book: 225 respondent-framed questions (KEEP subset of the 252 frozen at cbfa9db9…)." } ], "fielded_at_local": "2026-09-01T21:34:58Z", "fielding_pending": false, "resolution": "Named print or certified result per item. Official-book clock 2027-01-08T23:59:59-05:00. Latest resolve_by in this issue: 2027-01-08." }, "methodology": { "model": "lewis-v17", "scoring": "verbalized", "inference": "Each respondent states its option probabilities directly; a small probability floor is applied. No further calibration.", "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901", "option_order": "per-respondent randomized option order", "dateline": "Today's date is September 1, 2026. Answer based on how you feel as of this date — not based on events after it. Book A: no temporal_context.anchor_date.", "system_prompt_mode": "policy (all questions)", "calibration": "identity (no Dirichlet-ODIR); ε=0.03 minority-option floor after aggregation", "uncertainty": null, "published_error_rate": "Headline metric for this issue is winner-call rate, not MAE. This book is pre-registered and unscored until named prints resolve.", "disclosure": "Synthetic panel of AI respondents. No humans were interviewed. n=1000 per item. National items: ACS-raked US adult draw. State items: that state's PUMS panel, DC omitted from the scored state map. All 225 questions are unbenchmarked and pre-registered. Three Gallup September GPSS items are in_field_watch and drop if interviewing has opened before publication. Twenty-seven forecast-framed items from the v1 draft were withheld; 25 are re-asked as respondent items in Issue 05." }, "scoring": { "headline": "per_item_mae_and_same_decision", "headline_definition": "All 225 items are scored. None are dropped after the fact. Published metrics are per-item option-share MAE and same-decision versus an always-first floor. Each item grades as its named source publishes, through 2027-01-08.", "mae": "per-item option-share MAE on all 225 items; none dropped after the fact", "dk_default": "park", "call_types": [ "two_way", "three_way", "likert_poles", "plurality_band", "mean_side", "election_twoway", "election_plurality", "exchange_binary" ], "freeze_clock": "2026-09-05 23:59:59 America/New_York (may close sooner)", "resolve_clock": "2027-01-08T23:59:59-05:00", "scorecard_instant": "2027-01-08T23:59:59-05:00", "n_per_item": 1000, "same_decision": "frozen top option versus published result, reported beside the always-first floor", "n_scored": 225, "none_dropped_after_the_fact": true, "comparison_arm": "letter+T post-fielding f4763bdd2ea0d3720401a892a11ee24fff31c7a48740b9f53b7dcc9d03c63bf0 remains archived and is scored at resolution; it is not the headline" }, "source_freeze_date": "2026-09-05", "config": { "model_id": "lewis-v17", "n_per_item": 1000, "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901", "floor": 0.03, "calibrator": "identity", "calibrator_bundle_id": null, "fielding_pending": false, "elicitation": "verbalized", "temperature": "none", "n": 1000, "seed": 20260901, "model": "lewis-v17" }, "category_mix": { "civic_opinion": 7, "consumer_macro": 29, "consumer_yougov": 16, "politics_ballot": 62, "politics_election": 101, "politics_map": 3, "politics_tracker": 7 }, "n_national": 59, "n_state": 166, "n_in_field_watch": 3, "latest_resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "provenance": { "kind": "keep_subset_of_v1", "n": 225, "parent_book": "eval/forward_book_v1/issue_04.json", "parent_v1_prefielding_sha256": "cbfa9db9ba0232d909142388a89a6853ab4bb5b52d105877c2d9957cc94ceab3", "note": "The 225 KEEP items are a subset of the v1 set frozen at cbfa9db9ba0232d909142388a89a6853ab4bb5b52d105877c2d9957cc94ceab3. Distributions are verbalized elicitation plus ε=0.03 floor (no temperature).", "excluded_ids": [ "HOL-001", "HOL-002", "HOL-003", "HOL-004", "HOL-005", "HOL-006", "HOL-007", "HOL-008", "HOL-009", "HOL-010", "HOL-011", "HOL-012", "HOL-013", "HOL-039", "HOL-040", "HOL-041", "HOL-042", "HOL-043", "NS-027", "NS-034", "NS-038", "NS-044", "NS-092", "NS-094", "e2026_ctrl_house", "e2026_ctrl_senate", "e2026_house_popular_vote" ], "excluded_reason": "forecast-framed; re-asked as respondent items in Issue 05", "rewrite_parent_ids": [ "HOL-001", "HOL-002", "HOL-003", "HOL-004", "HOL-005", "HOL-006", "HOL-007", "HOL-008", "HOL-009", "HOL-010", "HOL-011", "HOL-012", "HOL-013", "HOL-039", "HOL-040", "HOL-041", "HOL-042", "HOL-043", "NS-034", "NS-044", "NS-092", "NS-094", "e2026_ctrl_house", "e2026_ctrl_senate", "e2026_house_popular_vote" ], "dropped_ids": [ "NS-027", "NS-038" ], "distribution_config": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901", "pre_fielding_sha256": "c73a440e650f76f58f0da2d2f9e033ae06a3b92362320f31c4cbfc72c1d5abb4", "post_fielding_sha256": "801ed3f3bdb6f3c82bc2dd018b77c1ed4156b3f9a72560a5251440a38b03b90c" }, "markets": [ { "market_id": "us", "state": "United States", "geography": "national", "usps": "US", "n_questions": 59, "panel": { "panel_label": "ACS-raked US adult draw (50 states + DC agents allowed)", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "NS-011", "prediction_id": "NS-011", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "Overall, how would you describe the problem of crime in the United States today — is it extremely serious, very serious, moderately serious, or not serious?", "options": [ "Extremely or very serious", "Moderately serious or not serious" ], "question_type": "civic_opinion", "category": "civic_opinion", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-11-15", "gt_source": { "name": "Gallup GPSS Crime 2026 printed topline (news.gallup.com)", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/697124/crime.aspx" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Use first 2026 Crime article. Collapse extremely+very vs moderately+not, matching Gallup's published serious split.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality of the two scored options matches the published plurality. Tie at reported rounding VOID.", "series_id": "Gallup GPSS Crime", "unique_stem": "NS-011", "kill_if": "Published 2026 stem differs from freeze wording; or item dropped from the wave. Or: Named wave does not publish a public topline by resolve_by.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Extremely or very serious": 68.5, "Moderately serious or not serious": 31.5 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Use first 2026 Crime article. Collapse extremely+very vs moderately+not, matching Gallup's published serious split." }, { "id": "NS-012", "prediction_id": "NS-012", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "Is there more crime in the U.S. than there was a year ago, or less?", "options": [ "More", "Less" ], "question_type": "civic_opinion", "category": "civic_opinion", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-11-15", "gt_source": { "name": "Gallup GPSS Crime 2026 printed topline (news.gallup.com)", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/697124/crime.aspx" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Use first 2026 Crime article. Score More vs Less. Same/DK not scored unless Gallup prints them as a plurality.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality of the two scored options matches the published plurality. Tie at reported rounding VOID.", "series_id": "Gallup GPSS Crime", "unique_stem": "NS-012", "kill_if": "Published 2026 stem differs from freeze wording; or item dropped from the wave. Or: Named wave does not publish a public topline by resolve_by.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "More": 66.4, "Less": 33.6 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Use first 2026 Crime article. Score More vs Less. Same/DK not scored unless Gallup prints them as a plurality." }, { "id": "NS-013", "prediction_id": "NS-013", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "Is there more crime in your area than there was a year ago, or less?", "options": [ "More", "Less" ], "question_type": "civic_opinion", "category": "civic_opinion", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-11-15", "gt_source": { "name": "Gallup GPSS Crime 2026 printed topline (news.gallup.com)", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/697124/crime.aspx" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Use first 2026 Crime article. Score More vs Less.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality of the two scored options matches the published plurality. Tie at reported rounding VOID.", "series_id": "Gallup GPSS Crime", "unique_stem": "NS-013", "kill_if": "Published 2026 stem differs from freeze wording; or item dropped from the wave. Or: Named wave does not publish a public topline by resolve_by.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "More": 54.8, "Less": 45.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Use first 2026 Crime article. Score More vs Less." }, { "id": "NS-014", "prediction_id": "NS-014", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "Is there any area near where you live — that is, within a mile — where you would be afraid to walk alone at night?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "civic_opinion", "category": "civic_opinion", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-11-15", "gt_source": { "name": "Gallup GPSS Crime 2026 printed topline (news.gallup.com)", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/697124/crime.aspx" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Use first 2026 Crime article. Score Yes vs No.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality of the two scored options matches the published plurality. Tie at reported rounding VOID.", "series_id": "Gallup GPSS Crime", "unique_stem": "NS-014", "kill_if": "Published 2026 stem differs from freeze wording; or item dropped from the wave. Or: Named wave does not publish a public topline by resolve_by.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 21.8, "No": 78.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Use first 2026 Crime article. Score Yes vs No." }, { "id": "NS-015", "prediction_id": "NS-015", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "Overall, how would you describe the problem of crime in the area where you live — is it extremely serious, very serious, moderately serious, or not serious?", "options": [ "Extremely or very serious", "Moderately serious or not serious" ], "question_type": "civic_opinion", "category": "civic_opinion", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-11-15", "gt_source": { "name": "Gallup GPSS Crime 2026 printed topline (news.gallup.com)", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/697124/crime.aspx" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Use first 2026 Crime article. Collapse extremely+very vs moderately+not.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality of the two scored options matches the published plurality. Tie at reported rounding VOID.", "series_id": "Gallup GPSS Crime", "unique_stem": "NS-015", "kill_if": "Published 2026 stem differs from freeze wording; or item dropped from the wave. Or: Named wave does not publish a public topline by resolve_by.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Extremely or very serious": 54.0, "Moderately serious or not serious": 46.0 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Use first 2026 Crime article. Collapse extremely+very vs moderately+not." }, { "id": "NS-016", "prediction_id": "NS-016", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the cost of healthcare in the United States today?", "options": [ "Satisfied", "Dissatisfied" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-31", "gt_source": { "name": "West Health-Gallup GPSS Health 2026 printed topline", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/699770/cost-leads-americans-top-mind-healthcare-concerns.aspx" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Use first 2026 Health article that prints the national-cost satisfaction stem.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality of the two scored options matches the published plurality. Tie at reported rounding VOID.", "series_id": "Gallup GPSS Health", "unique_stem": "NS-016", "kill_if": "Published 2026 stem differs from freeze wording; or item dropped from the wave. Or: Named wave does not publish a public topline by resolve_by.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Satisfied": 7.5, "Dissatisfied": 92.5 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Use first 2026 Health article that prints the national-cost satisfaction stem." }, { "id": "NS-017", "prediction_id": "NS-017", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the cost of healthcare you yourself receive?", "options": [ "Satisfied", "Dissatisfied" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-31", "gt_source": { "name": "West Health-Gallup GPSS Health 2026 printed topline", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/699770/cost-leads-americans-top-mind-healthcare-concerns.aspx" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Use first 2026 Health article that prints own-cost satisfaction.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality of the two scored options matches the published plurality. Tie at reported rounding VOID.", "series_id": "Gallup GPSS Health", "unique_stem": "NS-017", "kill_if": "Published 2026 stem differs from freeze wording; or item dropped from the wave. Or: Named wave does not publish a public topline by resolve_by.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Satisfied": 21.2, "Dissatisfied": 78.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Use first 2026 Health article that prints own-cost satisfaction." }, { "id": "NS-018", "prediction_id": "NS-018", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "Which of these statements do you think best describes the U.S. healthcare system today: it is in a state of crisis, it has major problems, it has minor problems, or it does not have any problems?", "options": [ "Crisis or major problems", "Minor problems or no problems" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-31", "gt_source": { "name": "West Health-Gallup GPSS Health 2026 printed topline", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/699770/cost-leads-americans-top-mind-healthcare-concerns.aspx" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Collapse crisis+major vs minor+none, matching how Gallup discusses the system.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality of the two scored options matches the published plurality. Tie at reported rounding VOID.", "series_id": "Gallup GPSS Health", "unique_stem": "NS-018", "kill_if": "Published 2026 stem differs from freeze wording; or item dropped from the wave. Or: Named wave does not publish a public topline by resolve_by.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Crisis or major problems": 90.1, "Minor problems or no problems": 9.9 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Collapse crisis+major vs minor+none, matching how Gallup discusses the system." }, { "id": "NS-019", "prediction_id": "NS-019", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "What is the most urgent health problem facing the United States today?", "options": [ "Cost", "Access or coverage", "Obesity", "Other coded mention" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "three_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-31", "gt_source": { "name": "West Health-Gallup GPSS Health 2026 printed topline", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/699770/cost-leads-americans-top-mind-healthcare-concerns.aspx" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Winner is the plurality coded category on the published most-urgent-problem table.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality among scored options matches the published plurality. If the print is a tie at the reported rounding, or DK/other is the plurality, VOID.", "series_id": "Gallup GPSS Health", "unique_stem": "NS-019", "kill_if": "Coding scheme changes; or item dropped; or no coded table by resolve_by.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Cost": 45.7, "Access or coverage": 35.3, "Obesity": 13.6, "Other coded mention": 5.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Winner is the plurality coded category on the published most-urgent-problem table." }, { "id": "NS-020", "prediction_id": "NS-020", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the quality of healthcare you yourself receive?", "options": [ "Satisfied", "Dissatisfied" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-31", "gt_source": { "name": "West Health-Gallup GPSS Health 2026 printed topline", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/699770/cost-leads-americans-top-mind-healthcare-concerns.aspx" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Use first 2026 Health article that prints own-quality satisfaction.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality of the two scored options matches the published plurality. Tie at reported rounding VOID.", "series_id": "Gallup GPSS Health", "unique_stem": "NS-020", "kill_if": "Published 2026 stem differs from freeze wording; or item dropped from the wave. Or: Named wave does not publish a public topline by resolve_by.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Satisfied": 51.2, "Dissatisfied": 48.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Use first 2026 Health article that prints own-quality satisfaction." }, { "id": "NS-022", "prediction_id": "NS-022", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an independent?", "options": [ "Republican", "Democrat", "Independent" ], "question_type": "civic_opinion", "category": "civic_opinion", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "three_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "Gallup Party Affiliation quarterly/annual print (news.gallup.com/poll/15370)", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Use Gallup's Q4 2026 or December 2026 published party-ID table, whichever prints first with a 2026 year-end reading.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality among scored options matches the published plurality. If the print is a tie at the reported rounding, or DK/other is the plurality, VOID.", "series_id": "Gallup Party ID", "unique_stem": "NS-022", "kill_if": "No Q4/Dec 2026 party-ID table by Jan 7; or stem rewritten.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Republican": 41.2, "Democrat": 35.0, "Independent": 23.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Use Gallup's Q4 2026 or December 2026 published party-ID table, whichever prints first with a 2026 year-end reading." }, { "id": "NS-023", "prediction_id": "NS-023", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an independent? [IF INDEPENDENT] As of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?", "options": [ "Democrat or lean Democrat", "Republican or lean Republican" ], "question_type": "civic_opinion", "category": "civic_opinion", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "Gallup Party Affiliation leaned-PID table", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Use the same Q4/Dec 2026 print as NS-022. Score leaned two-way, excluding pure independents from the plurality unless Gallup prints them as a third scored bar.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality of the two scored options matches the published plurality. Tie at reported rounding VOID.", "series_id": "Gallup Party ID", "unique_stem": "NS-023", "kill_if": "No leaned-PID table by Jan 7; or stem rewritten.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Democrat or lean Democrat": 47.5, "Republican or lean Republican": 52.5 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Use the same Q4/Dec 2026 print as NS-022. Score leaned two-way, excluding pure independents from the plurality unless Gallup prints them as a third scored bar." }, { "id": "NS-028", "prediction_id": "NS-028", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?", "options": [ "Better", "Worse" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults (Surveys of Consumers national sample)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-18", "gt_source": { "name": "University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final tables (data.sca.isr.umich.edu)", "url": "https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score against the December 2026 FINAL tables, not the Dec 4 prelim. Score PAGO better vs worse. Same/DK residual.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality of the two scored options matches the published plurality. Tie at reported rounding VOID.", "series_id": "University of Michigan ICS", "unique_stem": "NS-028", "kill_if": "Published 2026 stem differs from freeze wording; or item dropped from the wave.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Better": 38.0, "Worse": 62.0 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score against the December 2026 FINAL tables, not the Dec 4 prelim. Score PAGO better vs worse. Same/DK residual." }, { "id": "NS-029", "prediction_id": "NS-029", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "Now looking ahead — do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, worse off, or just about the same as now?", "options": [ "Better", "Worse", "Same" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "three_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults (Surveys of Consumers national sample)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-18", "gt_source": { "name": "University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final tables (data.sca.isr.umich.edu)", "url": "https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score against the December 2026 FINAL tables, not the Dec 4 prelim. Score PEXP three-way plurality.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality among scored options matches the published plurality. If the print is a tie at the reported rounding, or DK/other is the plurality, VOID.", "series_id": "University of Michigan ICS", "unique_stem": "NS-029", "kill_if": "Published 2026 stem differs from freeze wording; or item dropped from the wave.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Better": 18.3, "Worse": 34.3, "Same": 47.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score against the December 2026 FINAL tables, not the Dec 4 prelim. Score PEXP three-way plurality." }, { "id": "NS-030", "prediction_id": "NS-030", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole — do you think that during the next 12 months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?", "options": [ "Good times", "Bad times" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults (Surveys of Consumers national sample)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-18", "gt_source": { "name": "University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final tables (data.sca.isr.umich.edu)", "url": "https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score against the December 2026 FINAL tables, not the Dec 4 prelim. Score BUS12 good vs bad. Uncertain residual.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality of the two scored options matches the published plurality. Tie at reported rounding VOID.", "series_id": "University of Michigan ICS", "unique_stem": "NS-030", "kill_if": "Published 2026 stem differs from freeze wording; or item dropped from the wave.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Good times": 31.3, "Bad times": 68.7 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score against the December 2026 FINAL tables, not the Dec 4 prelim. Score BUS12 good vs bad. Uncertain residual." }, { "id": "NS-031", "prediction_id": "NS-031", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely — that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?", "options": [ "Continuous good times", "Widespread unemployment or depression" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults (Surveys of Consumers national sample)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-18", "gt_source": { "name": "University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final tables (data.sca.isr.umich.edu)", "url": "https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score against the December 2026 FINAL tables, not the Dec 4 prelim. Score BUS5 good vs unemployment/depression. Uncertain residual.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality of the two scored options matches the published plurality. Tie at reported rounding VOID.", "series_id": "University of Michigan ICS", "unique_stem": "NS-031", "kill_if": "Published 2026 stem differs from freeze wording; or item dropped from the wave.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Continuous good times": 27.7, "Widespread unemployment or depression": 72.3 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score against the December 2026 FINAL tables, not the Dec 4 prelim. Score BUS5 good vs unemployment/depression. Uncertain residual." }, { "id": "NS-032", "prediction_id": "NS-032", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "About the big things people buy for their homes — such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or a bad time for people to buy major household items?", "options": [ "Good time to buy", "Bad time to buy" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults (Surveys of Consumers national sample)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-18", "gt_source": { "name": "University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final tables (data.sca.isr.umich.edu)", "url": "https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score against the December 2026 FINAL tables, not the Dec 4 prelim. Score DUR good vs bad. Uncertain residual.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality of the two scored options matches the published plurality. Tie at reported rounding VOID.", "series_id": "University of Michigan ICS", "unique_stem": "NS-032", "kill_if": "Published 2026 stem differs from freeze wording; or item dropped from the wave.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Good time to buy": 37.2, "Bad time to buy": 62.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score against the December 2026 FINAL tables, not the Dec 4 prelim. Score DUR good vs bad. Uncertain residual." }, { "id": "NS-033", "prediction_id": "NS-033", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "During the next 12 months, do you think that prices in general will go up, go down, or stay where they are now?", "options": [ "Go up", "Stay the same or go down" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults (Surveys of Consumers national sample)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-18", "gt_source": { "name": "University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final tables (data.sca.isr.umich.edu)", "url": "https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score against the December 2026 FINAL tables, not the Dec 4 prelim. Score PX1 qualitative. Stay+down collapsed as the not-up side.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality of the two scored options matches the published plurality. Tie at reported rounding VOID.", "series_id": "University of Michigan ICS", "unique_stem": "NS-033", "kill_if": "Published 2026 stem differs from freeze wording; or item dropped from the wave.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Go up": 74.1, "Stay the same or go down": 25.9 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score against the December 2026 FINAL tables, not the Dec 4 prelim. Score PX1 qualitative. Stay+down collapsed as the not-up side." }, { "id": "NS-039", "prediction_id": "NS-039", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "How would you rate present general business conditions in your area — good, normal, or bad?", "options": [ "Good", "Bad" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. household heads (Conference Board / Toluna Consumer Confidence Survey)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-29", "gt_source": { "name": "Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index press release (conference-board.org)", "url": "https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score printed share good vs bad. Normal residual. Aug 2026: 18.9% good, 17.6% bad.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality of the two scored options matches the published plurality. Tie at reported rounding VOID.", "series_id": "Conference Board Consumer Confidence", "unique_stem": "NS-039", "kill_if": "Published 2026 stem differs from freeze wording; or item dropped from the wave. Or: Named wave does not publish a public topline by resolve_by.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Good": 46.8, "Bad": 53.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score printed share good vs bad. Normal residual. Aug 2026: 18.9% good, 17.6% bad." }, { "id": "NS-040", "prediction_id": "NS-040", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "How would you rate job availability in your area — plentiful, not so plentiful, or hard to get?", "options": [ "Plentiful", "Hard to get" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. household heads (Conference Board / Toluna Consumer Confidence Survey)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-29", "gt_source": { "name": "Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index press release (conference-board.org)", "url": "https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score printed plentiful vs hard-to-get. Not-so-plentiful residual. Aug 2026: 27.0% vs 19.5%.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality of the two scored options matches the published plurality. Tie at reported rounding VOID.", "series_id": "Conference Board Consumer Confidence", "unique_stem": "NS-040", "kill_if": "Published 2026 stem differs from freeze wording; or item dropped from the wave. Or: Named wave does not publish a public topline by resolve_by.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Plentiful": 42.4, "Hard to get": 57.6 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score printed plentiful vs hard-to-get. Not-so-plentiful residual. Aug 2026: 27.0% vs 19.5%." }, { "id": "NS-041", "prediction_id": "NS-041", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "Six months from now, do you expect business conditions to be better, the same, or worse?", "options": [ "Better", "Worse" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. household heads (Conference Board / Toluna Consumer Confidence Survey)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-29", "gt_source": { "name": "Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index press release (conference-board.org)", "url": "https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score printed better vs worse. Same residual. Aug 2026: 16.8% better, 23.1% worse.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality of the two scored options matches the published plurality. Tie at reported rounding VOID.", "series_id": "Conference Board Consumer Confidence", "unique_stem": "NS-041", "kill_if": "Published 2026 stem differs from freeze wording; or item dropped from the wave. Or: Named wave does not publish a public topline by resolve_by.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Better": 37.0, "Worse": 63.0 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score printed better vs worse. Same residual. Aug 2026: 16.8% better, 23.1% worse." }, { "id": "NS-042", "prediction_id": "NS-042", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "Six months from now, do you expect there to be more jobs, the same, or fewer jobs?", "options": [ "More jobs", "Fewer jobs" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. household heads (Conference Board / Toluna Consumer Confidence Survey)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-29", "gt_source": { "name": "Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index press release (conference-board.org)", "url": "https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score printed more vs fewer. Same residual. Aug 2026: 14.6% more, 26.1% fewer.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality of the two scored options matches the published plurality. Tie at reported rounding VOID.", "series_id": "Conference Board Consumer Confidence", "unique_stem": "NS-042", "kill_if": "Published 2026 stem differs from freeze wording; or item dropped from the wave. Or: Named wave does not publish a public topline by resolve_by.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "More jobs": 40.4, "Fewer jobs": 59.6 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score printed more vs fewer. Same residual. Aug 2026: 14.6% more, 26.1% fewer." }, { "id": "NS-043", "prediction_id": "NS-043", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "Six months from now, do you expect your family income to increase, stay the same, or decrease?", "options": [ "Increase", "Decrease" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. household heads (Conference Board / Toluna Consumer Confidence Survey)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-29", "gt_source": { "name": "Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index press release (conference-board.org)", "url": "https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score printed increase vs decrease. Same residual. Aug 2026: 17.6% increase, 13.8% decrease.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality of the two scored options matches the published plurality. Tie at reported rounding VOID.", "series_id": "Conference Board Consumer Confidence", "unique_stem": "NS-043", "kill_if": "Published 2026 stem differs from freeze wording; or item dropped from the wave. Or: Named wave does not publish a public topline by resolve_by.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Increase": 38.4, "Decrease": 61.6 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score printed increase vs decrease. Same residual. Aug 2026: 17.6% increase, 13.8% decrease." }, { "id": "NS-045", "prediction_id": "NS-045", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "How likely is a U.S. recession over the next 12 months?", "options": [ "Very likely", "Not very likely or not likely" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. household heads (Conference Board / Toluna Consumer Confidence Survey)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-29", "gt_source": { "name": "Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index press release (conference-board.org)", "url": "https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Use the printed recession-likelihood item if present in the Dec release (not in the CCI formula).", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality of the two scored options matches the published plurality. Tie at reported rounding VOID.", "series_id": "Conference Board Consumer Confidence", "unique_stem": "NS-045", "kill_if": "Recession-likelihood item not printed in Dec 2026.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Very likely": 47.3, "Not very likely or not likely": 52.7 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Use the printed recession-likelihood item if present in the Dec release (not in the CCI formula)." }, { "id": "NS-048", "prediction_id": "NS-048", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "Getting enough food can be a problem for some people. In the LAST 7 DAYS, which of these statements best describes the food eaten in your household?", "options": [ "Enough of the kinds of food wanted", "Enough but not always the kinds wanted", "Sometimes not enough", "Often not enough" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "three_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults in sampled households (HTOPS / Household Pulse, Census)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-15", "gt_source": { "name": "Census HTOPS public tables / PUF (census.gov/data/tables/2026/demo/hhp)", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/household-pulse-survey/data/tables.html" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Use the first public HTOPS table for this wave that prints FD1 food sufficiency. National adults / all households, matching the March 2026 table stub.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality among scored options matches the published plurality. If the print is a tie at the reported rounding, or DK/other is the plurality, VOID.", "series_id": "Census HTOPS / Household Pulse", "unique_stem": "NS-048", "kill_if": "Instrument drops the item; or no public table by resolve_by; or OMB collection cancelled.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Enough of the kinds of food wanted": 46.0, "Enough but not always the kinds wanted": 24.9, "Sometimes not enough": 19.6, "Often not enough": 9.6 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Use the first public HTOPS table for this wave that prints FD1 food sufficiency. National adults / all households, matching the March 2026 table stub." }, { "id": "NS-049", "prediction_id": "NS-049", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "In the LAST 2 MONTHS, how difficult has it been for your household to pay for usual household expenses, including but not limited to food, rent or mortgage, car payments, medical expenses, student loans, and so on?", "options": [ "Not at all difficult", "A little difficult", "Somewhat difficult", "Very difficult" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "likert_poles", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults in sampled households (HTOPS / Household Pulse, Census)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-15", "gt_source": { "name": "Census HTOPS public tables / PUF (census.gov/data/tables/2026/demo/hhp)", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/household-pulse-survey/data/tables.html" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Use the first public HTOPS table for this wave that prints SPN4 difficulty paying expenses. National adults / all households, matching the March 2026 table stub.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality among scored options matches the published plurality. If the print is a tie at the reported rounding, or DK/other is the plurality, VOID.", "series_id": "Census HTOPS / Household Pulse", "unique_stem": "NS-049", "kill_if": "Instrument drops the item; or no public table by resolve_by; or OMB collection cancelled.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Not at all difficult": 34.4, "A little difficult": 22.1, "Somewhat difficult": 27.3, "Very difficult": 16.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Use the first public HTOPS table for this wave that prints SPN4 difficulty paying expenses. National adults / all households, matching the March 2026 table stub." }, { "id": "NS-050", "prediction_id": "NS-050", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "In the area where you live and shop, do you think prices in general have changed IN THE LAST 2 MONTHS?", "options": [ "Prices have increased", "Prices have not changed", "Prices have decreased" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "three_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults in sampled households (HTOPS / Household Pulse, Census)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-15", "gt_source": { "name": "Census HTOPS public tables / PUF (census.gov/data/tables/2026/demo/hhp)", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/household-pulse-survey/data/tables.html" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Use the first public HTOPS table for this wave that prints INFLATE1 price change. National adults / all households, matching the March 2026 table stub.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality of the two scored options matches the published plurality. Tie at reported rounding VOID.", "series_id": "Census HTOPS / Household Pulse", "unique_stem": "NS-050", "kill_if": "Instrument drops the item; or no public table by resolve_by; or OMB collection cancelled.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Prices have increased": 82.8, "Prices have not changed": 10.2, "Prices have decreased": 7.0 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Use the first public HTOPS table for this wave that prints INFLATE1 price change. National adults / all households, matching the March 2026 table stub." }, { "id": "NS-051", "prediction_id": "NS-051", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "In the area you live and shop, how concerned are you, if at all, that prices will increase IN THE NEXT 6 MONTHS?", "options": [ "Very concerned", "Somewhat concerned", "A little concerned", "Not at all concerned" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "likert_poles", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults in sampled households (HTOPS / Household Pulse, Census)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-15", "gt_source": { "name": "Census HTOPS public tables / PUF (census.gov/data/tables/2026/demo/hhp)", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/household-pulse-survey/data/tables.html" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Use the first public HTOPS table for this wave that prints INFLATE4 price concern. National adults / all households, matching the March 2026 table stub.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality among scored options matches the published plurality. If the print is a tie at the reported rounding, or DK/other is the plurality, VOID.", "series_id": "Census HTOPS / Household Pulse", "unique_stem": "NS-051", "kill_if": "Instrument drops the item; or no public table by resolve_by; or OMB collection cancelled.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Very concerned": 53.1, "Somewhat concerned": 31.7, "A little concerned": 12.2, "Not at all concerned": 2.9 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Use the first public HTOPS table for this wave that prints INFLATE4 price concern. National adults / all households, matching the March 2026 table stub." }, { "id": "NS-052", "prediction_id": "NS-052", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "Over the LAST 2 WEEKS, how often have you been bothered by feeling nervous, anxious, or on edge?", "options": [ "Not at all", "Several days or more" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults in sampled households (HTOPS / Household Pulse, Census)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-15", "gt_source": { "name": "Census HTOPS public tables / PUF (census.gov/data/tables/2026/demo/hhp)", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/household-pulse-survey/data/tables.html" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Use the first public HTOPS table for this wave that prints HLTH1 anxiety. National adults / all households, matching the March 2026 table stub.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality of the two scored options matches the published plurality. Tie at reported rounding VOID.", "series_id": "Census HTOPS / Household Pulse", "unique_stem": "NS-052", "kill_if": "Instrument drops the item; or no public table by resolve_by; or OMB collection cancelled.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Not at all": 54.9, "Several days or more": 45.1 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Use the first public HTOPS table for this wave that prints HLTH1 anxiety. National adults / all households, matching the March 2026 table stub." }, { "id": "NS-053", "prediction_id": "NS-053", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "Over the LAST 2 WEEKS, how often have you been bothered by having little interest or pleasure in doing things?", "options": [ "Not at all", "Several days or more" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults in sampled households (HTOPS / Household Pulse, Census)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-15", "gt_source": { "name": "Census HTOPS public tables / PUF (census.gov/data/tables/2026/demo/hhp)", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/household-pulse-survey/data/tables.html" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Use the first public HTOPS table for this wave that prints HLTH3 depression anhedonia. National adults / all households, matching the March 2026 table stub.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality of the two scored options matches the published plurality. Tie at reported rounding VOID.", "series_id": "Census HTOPS / Household Pulse", "unique_stem": "NS-053", "kill_if": "Instrument drops the item; or no public table by resolve_by; or OMB collection cancelled.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Not at all": 76.5, "Several days or more": 23.5 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Use the first public HTOPS table for this wave that prints HLTH3 depression anhedonia. National adults / all households, matching the March 2026 table stub." }, { "id": "NS-091", "prediction_id": "NS-091", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "Over the next 12 months, do you think that there will be inflation or deflation? (SCE Q8v2)", "options": [ "Inflation", "Deflation" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. household heads (NY Fed SCE rotating panel, ~1,300)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-15", "gt_source": { "name": "NY Fed SCE monthly press release (newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce)", "url": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Use the November 2026 SCE release (expected ~Dec 8). Score Q8v2 inflation vs deflation if they print the qualitative split; else VOID and use NS-092 only.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality of the two scored options matches the published plurality. Tie at reported rounding VOID.", "series_id": "NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations", "unique_stem": "NS-091", "kill_if": "Qualitative inflation/deflation split not printed; or Nov release slips past Dec 15.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Inflation": 81.6, "Deflation": 18.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Use the November 2026 SCE release (expected ~Dec 8). Score Q8v2 inflation vs deflation if they print the qualitative split; else VOID and use NS-092 only." }, { "id": "NS-093", "prediction_id": "NS-093", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "And looking ahead to 12 months from now, do you expect your household's financial situation to be better, the same, or worse than it is today?", "options": [ "Better", "Worse" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "named_survey", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. household heads (NY Fed SCE rotating panel, ~1,300)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-15", "gt_source": { "name": "NY Fed SCE monthly press release (newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce)", "url": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Use the November 2026 SCE household-finance section. Same residual.", "winner_call_definition": "Predicted plurality of the two scored options matches the published plurality. Tie at reported rounding VOID.", "series_id": "NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations", "unique_stem": "NS-093", "kill_if": "Item not in the Nov press release.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Better": 39.6, "Worse": 60.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Use the November 2026 SCE household-finance section. Same residual." }, { "id": "t1000_gallup_congress_approval_202609", "prediction_id": "t1000_gallup_congress_approval_202609", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[2026-09 GPSS / Governance] Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?", "options": [ "Approve", "Disapprove", "No opinion" ], "question_type": "politics_tracker", "category": "politics_tracker", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "likert_poles", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults 18+ (Gallup GPSS; Lewsearch n=1000)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-10-15", "gt_source": { "name": "Gallup Poll Social Series monthly article + Trends A-Z tables on news.gallup.com (public).", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/1600/congress-public.aspx" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Read the GPSS wave fielded in this calendar month (or the first GPSS article that reports the stem for that month). Use national adults. Do not use Gallup presidential approval — that series is dead.", "winner_call_definition": "Scored poles: Approve vs Disapprove. Winner is the larger of the two scored poles on the published topline. Not sure / DK / skipped / Other / will-not-vote are not scored and cannot win. Tie (rounded shares equal, or |margin| < 1pp after standard rounding) is VOID.", "series_id": "gallup_congress_approval", "unique_stem": "fam_congress_approval", "kill_if": "Kill if September 2026 GPSS (Governance) is not published, or if this core stem is dropped from the monthly battery.", "in_field_watch": true, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Approve": 5.4, "Disapprove": 84.8, "No opinion": 9.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "in_field_watch: drop if Gallup has begun interviewing before publication (09 §3.2). Latest public Congress article as of 2026-09-01 is April 2026; 2025 Governance fielded Sep 2–16. Read the GPSS wave fielded in this calendar month (or the first GPSS article that reports the stem for that month). Use national adults. Do not use Gallup presidential approval — that series is dead." }, { "id": "t1000_gallup_job_market_202609", "prediction_id": "t1000_gallup_job_market_202609", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[2026-09 GPSS / Governance] Thinking now about the job situation in America today, would you say that it is now a good time or a bad time to find a quality job?", "options": [ "Good time", "Bad time", "No opinion" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "likert_poles", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults 18+ (Gallup GPSS; Lewsearch n=1000)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-10-15", "gt_source": { "name": "Gallup Poll Social Series monthly article + Trends A-Z tables on news.gallup.com (public).", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/1654/finding-quality-job.aspx" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Read the GPSS wave fielded in this calendar month (or the first GPSS article that reports the stem for that month). Use national adults. Do not use Gallup presidential approval — that series is dead.", "winner_call_definition": "Scored poles: Good time vs Bad time. Winner is the larger of the two scored poles on the published topline. Not sure / DK / skipped / Other / will-not-vote are not scored and cannot win. Tie (rounded shares equal, or |margin| < 1pp after standard rounding) is VOID.", "series_id": "gallup_job_market", "unique_stem": "fam_job_market", "kill_if": "Kill if September 2026 GPSS (Governance) is not published, or if this core stem is dropped from the monthly battery.", "in_field_watch": true, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Good time": 33.8, "Bad time": 56.0, "No opinion": 10.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "in_field_watch: drop if Gallup has begun interviewing before publication (09 §3.2). Latest public Congress article as of 2026-09-01 is April 2026; 2025 Governance fielded Sep 2–16. Read the GPSS wave fielded in this calendar month (or the first GPSS article that reports the stem for that month). Use national adults. Do not use Gallup presidential approval — that series is dead." }, { "id": "t1000_gallup_satisfaction_202609", "prediction_id": "t1000_gallup_satisfaction_202609", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[2026-09 GPSS / Governance] In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?", "options": [ "Satisfied", "Dissatisfied", "No opinion" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "likert_poles", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adults 18+ (Gallup GPSS; Lewsearch n=1000)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-10-15", "gt_source": { "name": "Gallup Poll Social Series monthly article + Trends A-Z tables on news.gallup.com (public).", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/1669/general-mood-country.aspx" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Read the GPSS wave fielded in this calendar month (or the first GPSS article that reports the stem for that month). Use national adults. Do not use Gallup presidential approval — that series is dead.", "winner_call_definition": "Scored poles: Satisfied vs Dissatisfied. Winner is the larger of the two scored poles on the published topline. Not sure / DK / skipped / Other / will-not-vote are not scored and cannot win. Tie (rounded shares equal, or |margin| < 1pp after standard rounding) is VOID.", "series_id": "gallup_satisfaction", "unique_stem": "fam_satisfaction", "kill_if": "Kill if September 2026 GPSS (Governance) is not published, or if this core stem is dropped from the monthly battery.", "in_field_watch": true, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Satisfied": 12.6, "Dissatisfied": 79.8, "No opinion": 7.6 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "in_field_watch: drop if Gallup has begun interviewing before publication (09 §3.2). Latest public Congress article as of 2026-09-01 is April 2026; 2025 Governance fielded Sep 2–16. Read the GPSS wave fielded in this calendar month (or the first GPSS article that reports the stem for that month). Use national adults. Do not use Gallup presidential approval — that series is dead." }, { "id": "t1000_yg29_availability-of-employment_next", "prediction_id": "t1000_yg29_availability-of-employment_next", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[Next unpublished weekly wave after 2026-09-05; last print 2026-08-02] If you lost your job, how hard would it be for you to find a new job that paid as much as you are making now?", "options": [ "Very hard -- I would probably have to take a pay cut.", "Somewhat hard -- It might take a while before I found a job that paid as much.", "Not very hard", "Not sure" ], "question_type": "consumer_yougov", "category": "consumer_yougov", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "three_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "US adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-09-18", "gt_source": { "name": "YouGov US tracker https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/availability-of-employment — next unpublished weekly wave after freeze (not the 2026-08-02 print)", "url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/availability-of-employment" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-02 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK.", "winner_call_definition": "Lewis n=1000 US adults. Call = plurality among listed options after dropping blank/DK. Hit if call equals the printed YouGov All-adults winner.", "series_id": "yg29_availability-of-employment", "unique_stem": "yg29_availability-of-employment", "kill_if": "No post-freeze wave prints by resolve_by; series discontinued; option set rewritten; or the printed wave's field opened before 2026-09-05 freeze.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Very hard -- I would probably have to take a pay cut.": 46.1, "Somewhat hard -- It might take a while before I found a job that paid as much.": 40.7, "Not very hard": 10.3, "Not sure": 2.9 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-02 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK." }, { "id": "t1000_yg29_brands-point-of-view-on-society_next", "prediction_id": "t1000_yg29_brands-point-of-view-on-society_next", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[Next unpublished quarterly wave after 2026-09-05; last print 2026-08-20] How important, or not, is it to you that the brands you like have a clear/transparent point of view on wider issues in society?", "options": [ "Not at all important", "Not very important", "Somewhat important", "Very important", "Don't know" ], "question_type": "consumer_yougov", "category": "consumer_yougov", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "three_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "US adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-15", "gt_source": { "name": "YouGov US tracker https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/brands-point-of-view-on-society — next unpublished quarterly wave after freeze (not the 2026-08-20 print)", "url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/brands-point-of-view-on-society" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-20 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK.", "winner_call_definition": "Lewis n=1000 US adults. Call = plurality among listed options after dropping blank/DK. Hit if call equals the printed YouGov All-adults winner.", "series_id": "yg29_brands-point-of-view-on-society", "unique_stem": "yg29_brands-point-of-view-on-society", "kill_if": "No post-freeze wave prints by resolve_by; series discontinued; option set rewritten; or the printed wave's field opened before 2026-09-05 freeze.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Not at all important": 2.9, "Not very important": 11.5, "Somewhat important": 27.6, "Very important": 55.2, "Don't know": 2.9 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-20 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK." }, { "id": "t1000_yg29_financial-situation-compared-in-the-next-12-months_next", "prediction_id": "t1000_yg29_financial-situation-compared-in-the-next-12-months_next", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[Next unpublished monthly wave after 2026-09-05; last print 2026-08-27] And how do you imagine your household's financial situation to be 12 months from now, in comparison to your present financial situation?", "options": [ "Worse", "No change", "Better", "Don't know" ], "question_type": "consumer_yougov", "category": "consumer_yougov", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "three_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "US adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-10-15", "gt_source": { "name": "YouGov US tracker https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/financial-situation-compared-in-the-next-12-months — next unpublished monthly wave after freeze (not the 2026-08-27 print)", "url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/financial-situation-compared-in-the-next-12-months" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-27 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK.", "winner_call_definition": "Lewis n=1000 US adults. Call = plurality among listed options after dropping blank/DK. Hit if call equals the printed YouGov All-adults winner.", "series_id": "yg29_financial-situation-compared-in-the-next-12-months", "unique_stem": "yg29_financial-situation-compared-in-the-next-12-months", "kill_if": "No post-freeze wave prints by resolve_by; series discontinued; option set rewritten; or the printed wave's field opened before 2026-09-05 freeze.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Worse": 28.6, "No change": 51.4, "Better": 16.8, "Don't know": 3.3 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-27 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK." }, { "id": "t1000_yg29_financially-coping_next", "prediction_id": "t1000_yg29_financially-coping_next", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[Next unpublished quarterly wave after 2026-09-05; last print 2026-08-20] Which of the statements below best describes how well you are coping financially at the moment?", "options": [ "Living comfortably", "Not living comfortably but coping", "Finding it a little difficult", "Finding it very difficult", "Don’t know" ], "question_type": "consumer_yougov", "category": "consumer_yougov", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "three_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "US adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-15", "gt_source": { "name": "YouGov US tracker https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/financially-coping — next unpublished quarterly wave after freeze (not the 2026-08-20 print)", "url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/financially-coping" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-20 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK.", "winner_call_definition": "Lewis n=1000 US adults. Call = plurality among listed options after dropping blank/DK. Hit if call equals the printed YouGov All-adults winner.", "series_id": "yg29_financially-coping", "unique_stem": "yg29_financially-coping", "kill_if": "No post-freeze wave prints by resolve_by; series discontinued; option set rewritten; or the printed wave's field opened before 2026-09-05 freeze.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Living comfortably": 34.8, "Not living comfortably but coping": 27.3, "Finding it a little difficult": 19.9, "Finding it very difficult": 15.0, "Don’t know": 2.9 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-20 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK." }, { "id": "t1000_yg29_health-of-eating-habits_next", "prediction_id": "t1000_yg29_health-of-eating-habits_next", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[Next unpublished quarterly wave after 2026-09-05; last print 2026-08-20] Generally speaking, how healthy would you say your eating habits are?", "options": [ "Very healthy", "Fairly healthy", "Not very healthy", "Not healthy at all", "Don't know" ], "question_type": "consumer_yougov", "category": "consumer_yougov", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "three_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "US adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-15", "gt_source": { "name": "YouGov US tracker https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/health-of-eating-habits — next unpublished quarterly wave after freeze (not the 2026-08-20 print)", "url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/health-of-eating-habits" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-20 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK.", "winner_call_definition": "Lewis n=1000 US adults. Call = plurality among listed options after dropping blank/DK. Hit if call equals the printed YouGov All-adults winner.", "series_id": "yg29_health-of-eating-habits", "unique_stem": "yg29_health-of-eating-habits", "kill_if": "No post-freeze wave prints by resolve_by; series discontinued; option set rewritten; or the printed wave's field opened before 2026-09-05 freeze.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Very healthy": 14.3, "Fairly healthy": 48.7, "Not very healthy": 30.2, "Not healthy at all": 3.8, "Don't know": 2.9 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-20 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK." }, { "id": "t1000_yg29_sector-favorability-groceries_next", "prediction_id": "t1000_yg29_sector-favorability-groceries_next", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[Next unpublished monthly wave after 2026-09-05; last print 2026-08-27] How favorable or unfavorable do you feel about each of the following sectors in the US? Please consider the organisations in each sector, their products and services, and their general operations: Groceries(food, cleeaning products etc.)", "options": [ "Very favorable", "Somewhat favorable", "Neither favorable nor unfavorable", "Somewhat unfavorable", "Very unfavorable", "Don't know" ], "question_type": "consumer_yougov", "category": "consumer_yougov", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "three_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "US adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-10-15", "gt_source": { "name": "YouGov US tracker https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/sector-favorability-groceries — next unpublished monthly wave after freeze (not the 2026-08-27 print)", "url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/sector-favorability-groceries" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-27 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK.", "winner_call_definition": "Lewis n=1000 US adults. Call = plurality among listed options after dropping blank/DK. Hit if call equals the printed YouGov All-adults winner.", "series_id": "yg29_sector-favorability-groceries", "unique_stem": "yg29_sector-favorability-groceries", "kill_if": "No post-freeze wave prints by resolve_by; series discontinued; option set rewritten; or the printed wave's field opened before 2026-09-05 freeze.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Very favorable": 2.9, "Somewhat favorable": 45.7, "Neither favorable nor unfavorable": 17.8, "Somewhat unfavorable": 26.1, "Very unfavorable": 4.6, "Don't know": 2.9 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-27 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK." }, { "id": "t1000_yg29_sector-favorability-supermarkets_next", "prediction_id": "t1000_yg29_sector-favorability-supermarkets_next", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[Next unpublished monthly wave after 2026-09-05; last print 2026-08-27] How favorable or unfavorable do you feel about each of the following sectors in the US? Please consider the organisations in each sector, their products and services, and their general operations: Supermarkets", "options": [ "Very favorable", "Somewhat favorable", "Neither favorable nor unfavorable", "Somewhat unfavorable", "Very unfavorable", "Don't know" ], "question_type": "consumer_yougov", "category": "consumer_yougov", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "three_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "US adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-10-15", "gt_source": { "name": "YouGov US tracker https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/sector-favorability-supermarkets — next unpublished monthly wave after freeze (not the 2026-08-27 print)", "url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/sector-favorability-supermarkets" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-27 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK.", "winner_call_definition": "Lewis n=1000 US adults. Call = plurality among listed options after dropping blank/DK. Hit if call equals the printed YouGov All-adults winner.", "series_id": "yg29_sector-favorability-supermarkets", "unique_stem": "yg29_sector-favorability-supermarkets", "kill_if": "No post-freeze wave prints by resolve_by; series discontinued; option set rewritten; or the printed wave's field opened before 2026-09-05 freeze.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Very favorable": 6.9, "Somewhat favorable": 52.4, "Neither favorable nor unfavorable": 18.0, "Somewhat unfavorable": 16.8, "Very unfavorable": 3.1, "Don't know": 2.9 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-27 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK." }, { "id": "t1000_yg29_sector-favorability-tobacco_next", "prediction_id": "t1000_yg29_sector-favorability-tobacco_next", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[Next unpublished monthly wave after 2026-09-05; last print 2026-08-27] How favorable or unfavorable do you feel about each of the following sectors in the US? Please consider the organisations in each sector, their products and services, and their general operations: Tobacco", "options": [ "Very favorable", "Somewhat favorable", "Neither favorable nor unfavorable", "Somewhat unfavorable", "Very unfavorable", "Don't know" ], "question_type": "consumer_yougov", "category": "consumer_yougov", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "three_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "US adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-10-15", "gt_source": { "name": "YouGov US tracker https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/sector-favorability-tobacco — next unpublished monthly wave after freeze (not the 2026-08-27 print)", "url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/sector-favorability-tobacco" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-27 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK.", "winner_call_definition": "Lewis n=1000 US adults. Call = plurality among listed options after dropping blank/DK. Hit if call equals the printed YouGov All-adults winner.", "series_id": "yg29_sector-favorability-tobacco", "unique_stem": "yg29_sector-favorability-tobacco", "kill_if": "No post-freeze wave prints by resolve_by; series discontinued; option set rewritten; or the printed wave's field opened before 2026-09-05 freeze.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Very favorable": 2.8, "Somewhat favorable": 5.8, "Neither favorable nor unfavorable": 8.3, "Somewhat unfavorable": 34.6, "Very unfavorable": 45.6, "Don't know": 2.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-27 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK." }, { "id": "t1000_yg29_shopping-online-in-store-clothing_next", "prediction_id": "t1000_yg29_shopping-online-in-store-clothing_next", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[Next unpublished quarterly wave after 2026-09-05; last print 2026-08-20] Do you do the majority of your shopping in each of the following areas online, or in-store? Clothing", "options": [ "Online", "In-store", "Neither - I don't buy such items", "Don't know" ], "question_type": "consumer_yougov", "category": "consumer_yougov", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "three_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "US adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-15", "gt_source": { "name": "YouGov US tracker https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/shopping-online-in-store-clothing — next unpublished quarterly wave after freeze (not the 2026-08-20 print)", "url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/shopping-online-in-store-clothing" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-20 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK.", "winner_call_definition": "Lewis n=1000 US adults. Call = plurality among listed options after dropping blank/DK. Hit if call equals the printed YouGov All-adults winner.", "series_id": "yg29_shopping-online-in-store-clothing", "unique_stem": "yg29_shopping-online-in-store-clothing", "kill_if": "No post-freeze wave prints by resolve_by; series discontinued; option set rewritten; or the printed wave's field opened before 2026-09-05 freeze.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Online": 33.8, "In-store": 60.6, "Neither - I don't buy such items": 2.8, "Don't know": 2.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-20 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK." }, { "id": "t1000_yg29_shopping-online-in-store-food-and-drink_next", "prediction_id": "t1000_yg29_shopping-online-in-store-food-and-drink_next", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[Next unpublished quarterly wave after 2026-09-05; last print 2026-08-20] Do you do the majority of your shopping in each of the following areas online, or in-store? Food & drink", "options": [ "Online", "In-store", "Neither - I don't buy such items", "Don't know" ], "question_type": "consumer_yougov", "category": "consumer_yougov", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "three_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "US adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-15", "gt_source": { "name": "YouGov US tracker https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/shopping-online-in-store-food-and-drink — next unpublished quarterly wave after freeze (not the 2026-08-20 print)", "url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/shopping-online-in-store-food-and-drink" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-20 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK.", "winner_call_definition": "Lewis n=1000 US adults. Call = plurality among listed options after dropping blank/DK. Hit if call equals the printed YouGov All-adults winner.", "series_id": "yg29_shopping-online-in-store-food-and-drink", "unique_stem": "yg29_shopping-online-in-store-food-and-drink", "kill_if": "No post-freeze wave prints by resolve_by; series discontinued; option set rewritten; or the printed wave's field opened before 2026-09-05 freeze.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Online": 17.6, "In-store": 76.8, "Neither - I don't buy such items": 2.8, "Don't know": 2.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-20 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK." }, { "id": "t1000_yg29_shopping-online-in-store-gifts_next", "prediction_id": "t1000_yg29_shopping-online-in-store-gifts_next", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[Next unpublished quarterly wave after 2026-09-05; last print 2026-08-20] Do you do the majority of your shopping in each of the following areas online, or in-store? Gifts", "options": [ "Online", "In-store", "Neither - I don't buy such items", "Don't know" ], "question_type": "consumer_yougov", "category": "consumer_yougov", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "three_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "US adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-15", "gt_source": { "name": "YouGov US tracker https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/shopping-online-in-store-gifts — next unpublished quarterly wave after freeze (not the 2026-08-20 print)", "url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/shopping-online-in-store-gifts" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-20 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK.", "winner_call_definition": "Lewis n=1000 US adults. Call = plurality among listed options after dropping blank/DK. Hit if call equals the printed YouGov All-adults winner.", "series_id": "yg29_shopping-online-in-store-gifts", "unique_stem": "yg29_shopping-online-in-store-gifts", "kill_if": "No post-freeze wave prints by resolve_by; series discontinued; option set rewritten; or the printed wave's field opened before 2026-09-05 freeze.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Online": 31.5, "In-store": 62.8, "Neither - I don't buy such items": 2.8, "Don't know": 2.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-20 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK." }, { "id": "t1000_yg29_shopping-online-in-store-health-beauty-products_next", "prediction_id": "t1000_yg29_shopping-online-in-store-health-beauty-products_next", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[Next unpublished quarterly wave after 2026-09-05; last print 2026-08-20] Do you do the majority of your shopping in each of the following areas online, or in-store? Health & beauty products", "options": [ "Online", "In-store", "Neither - I don't buy such items", "Don't know" ], "question_type": "consumer_yougov", "category": "consumer_yougov", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "three_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "US adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-15", "gt_source": { "name": "YouGov US tracker https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/shopping-online-in-store-health-beauty-products — next unpublished quarterly wave after freeze (not the 2026-08-20 print)", "url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/shopping-online-in-store-health-beauty-products" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-20 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK.", "winner_call_definition": "Lewis n=1000 US adults. Call = plurality among listed options after dropping blank/DK. Hit if call equals the printed YouGov All-adults winner.", "series_id": "yg29_shopping-online-in-store-health-beauty-products", "unique_stem": "yg29_shopping-online-in-store-health-beauty-products", "kill_if": "No post-freeze wave prints by resolve_by; series discontinued; option set rewritten; or the printed wave's field opened before 2026-09-05 freeze.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Online": 28.8, "In-store": 65.5, "Neither - I don't buy such items": 2.8, "Don't know": 2.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-20 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK." }, { "id": "t1000_yg29_shopping-online-in-store-holiday-bookings_next", "prediction_id": "t1000_yg29_shopping-online-in-store-holiday-bookings_next", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[Next unpublished quarterly wave after 2026-09-05; last print 2026-08-20] Do you do the majority of your shopping in each of the following areas online, or in-store? Holiday bookings", "options": [ "Online", "In-store", "Neither - I don't buy such items", "Don't know" ], "question_type": "consumer_yougov", "category": "consumer_yougov", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "three_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "US adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-15", "gt_source": { "name": "YouGov US tracker https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/shopping-online-in-store-holiday-bookings — next unpublished quarterly wave after freeze (not the 2026-08-20 print)", "url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/shopping-online-in-store-holiday-bookings" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-20 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK.", "winner_call_definition": "Lewis n=1000 US adults. Call = plurality among listed options after dropping blank/DK. Hit if call equals the printed YouGov All-adults winner.", "series_id": "yg29_shopping-online-in-store-holiday-bookings", "unique_stem": "yg29_shopping-online-in-store-holiday-bookings", "kill_if": "No post-freeze wave prints by resolve_by; series discontinued; option set rewritten; or the printed wave's field opened before 2026-09-05 freeze.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Online": 31.6, "In-store": 62.8, "Neither - I don't buy such items": 2.8, "Don't know": 2.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-20 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK." }, { "id": "t1000_yg29_shopping-online-in-store-homeware_next", "prediction_id": "t1000_yg29_shopping-online-in-store-homeware_next", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[Next unpublished quarterly wave after 2026-09-05; last print 2026-08-20] Do you do the majority of your shopping in each of the following areas online, or in-store? Homeware", "options": [ "Online", "In-store", "Neither - I don't buy such items", "Don't know" ], "question_type": "consumer_yougov", "category": "consumer_yougov", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "three_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "US adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-15", "gt_source": { "name": "YouGov US tracker https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/shopping-online-in-store-homeware — next unpublished quarterly wave after freeze (not the 2026-08-20 print)", "url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/shopping-online-in-store-homeware" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-20 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK.", "winner_call_definition": "Lewis n=1000 US adults. Call = plurality among listed options after dropping blank/DK. Hit if call equals the printed YouGov All-adults winner.", "series_id": "yg29_shopping-online-in-store-homeware", "unique_stem": "yg29_shopping-online-in-store-homeware", "kill_if": "No post-freeze wave prints by resolve_by; series discontinued; option set rewritten; or the printed wave's field opened before 2026-09-05 freeze.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Online": 29.8, "In-store": 64.5, "Neither - I don't buy such items": 2.8, "Don't know": 2.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-20 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK." }, { "id": "t1000_yg29_shopping-online-in-store-shoes_next", "prediction_id": "t1000_yg29_shopping-online-in-store-shoes_next", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[Next unpublished quarterly wave after 2026-09-05; last print 2026-08-20] Do you do the majority of your shopping in each of the following areas online, or in-store? Shoes", "options": [ "Online", "In-store", "Neither - I don't buy such items", "Don't know" ], "question_type": "consumer_yougov", "category": "consumer_yougov", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "three_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "US adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-15", "gt_source": { "name": "YouGov US tracker https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/shopping-online-in-store-shoes — next unpublished quarterly wave after freeze (not the 2026-08-20 print)", "url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/shopping-online-in-store-shoes" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-20 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK.", "winner_call_definition": "Lewis n=1000 US adults. Call = plurality among listed options after dropping blank/DK. Hit if call equals the printed YouGov All-adults winner.", "series_id": "yg29_shopping-online-in-store-shoes", "unique_stem": "yg29_shopping-online-in-store-shoes", "kill_if": "No post-freeze wave prints by resolve_by; series discontinued; option set rewritten; or the printed wave's field opened before 2026-09-05 freeze.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Online": 31.0, "In-store": 63.4, "Neither - I don't buy such items": 2.8, "Don't know": 2.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-20 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK." }, { "id": "t1000_yg29_shopping-online-in-store-technology-and-electronic_next", "prediction_id": "t1000_yg29_shopping-online-in-store-technology-and-electronic_next", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[Next unpublished quarterly wave after 2026-09-05; last print 2026-08-20] Do you do the majority of your shopping in each of the following areas online, or in-store? Technology & electronic", "options": [ "Online", "In-store", "Neither - I don't buy such items", "Don't know" ], "question_type": "consumer_yougov", "category": "consumer_yougov", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "three_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "US adults 18+", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-12-15", "gt_source": { "name": "YouGov US tracker https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/shopping-online-in-store-technology-and-electronic — next unpublished quarterly wave after freeze (not the 2026-08-20 print)", "url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/trackers/shopping-online-in-store-technology-and-electronic" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-20 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK.", "winner_call_definition": "Lewis n=1000 US adults. Call = plurality among listed options after dropping blank/DK. Hit if call equals the printed YouGov All-adults winner.", "series_id": "yg29_shopping-online-in-store-technology-and-electronic", "unique_stem": "yg29_shopping-online-in-store-technology-and-electronic", "kill_if": "No post-freeze wave prints by resolve_by; series discontinued; option set rewritten; or the printed wave's field opened before 2026-09-05 freeze.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Online": 49.1, "In-store": 41.5, "Neither - I don't buy such items": 6.4, "Don't know": 2.9 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Score the first All-adults wave dated after 2026-09-05 on this slug. Do not resolve against the already-printed 2026-08-20 column. Plurality among live options after parking DK." }, { "id": "t1000_yg_direction_20260911", "prediction_id": "t1000_yg_direction_20260911", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[Week of 2026-09-11] Would you say things in this country today are...", "options": [ "Generally headed in the right direction", "Off on the wrong track", "Not sure" ], "question_type": "politics_tracker", "category": "politics_tracker", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "likert_poles", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adult citizens (YouGov published frame; Lewsearch n=1000)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-09-18", "gt_source": { "name": "Economist/YouGov weekly poll toplines PDF on yougov.com/en-us/content/the-economist (also CloudFront econtoplines_*.pdf). All-adult-citizen table unless notes say RV.", "url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/content/the-economist" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Read the wave whose interviewing dates cover this Friday field-start. Use the published all-adult-citizen topline. If YouGov prints both intensity and collapsed totals, score the collapsed totals named in winner_call_definition.", "winner_call_definition": "Scored poles: right direction vs wrong track. Winner is the larger of the two scored poles on the published topline. Not sure / DK / skipped / Other / will-not-vote are not scored and cannot win. Tie (rounded shares equal, or |margin| < 1pp after standard rounding) is VOID.", "series_id": "yg_direction", "unique_stem": "fam_right_track", "kill_if": "Kill if the direction stem is dropped from that week's toplines. Kill if this Friday has no published wave for this series.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Generally headed in the right direction": 20.4, "Off on the wrong track": 68.0, "Not sure": 11.6 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Read the wave whose interviewing dates cover this Friday field-start. Use the published all-adult-citizen topline. If YouGov prints both intensity and collapsed totals, score the collapsed totals named in winner_call_definition." }, { "id": "t1000_yg_econ_dir_20260911", "prediction_id": "t1000_yg_econ_dir_20260911", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[Week of 2026-09-11] Overall, do you think the economy is getting better or worse?", "options": [ "Getting better", "About the same", "Getting worse", "Not sure" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "three_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adult citizens (YouGov published frame; Lewsearch n=1000)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-09-18", "gt_source": { "name": "Economist/YouGov weekly poll toplines PDF on yougov.com/en-us/content/the-economist (also CloudFront econtoplines_*.pdf). All-adult-citizen table unless notes say RV.", "url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/content/the-economist" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Read the wave whose interviewing dates cover this Friday field-start. Use the published all-adult-citizen topline. If YouGov prints both intensity and collapsed totals, score the collapsed totals named in winner_call_definition.", "winner_call_definition": "Scored options: Getting better | About the same | Getting worse. Winner is the single listed option with the highest published share among scored options. Not sure / DK / skipped are not scored unless they are an explicit listed option and the series publishes them as a share. Tie (rounded shares equal, or |margin| < 1pp) is VOID.", "series_id": "yg_econ_dir", "unique_stem": "fam_econ_dir", "kill_if": "Kill if this Friday has no published wave for this series.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Getting better": 15.3, "About the same": 28.9, "Getting worse": 51.6, "Not sure": 4.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Read the wave whose interviewing dates cover this Friday field-start. Use the published all-adult-citizen topline. If YouGov prints both intensity and collapsed totals, score the collapsed totals named in winner_call_definition." }, { "id": "t1000_yg_econ_now_20260911", "prediction_id": "t1000_yg_econ_now_20260911", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[Week of 2026-09-11] How would you describe the current state of the American economy?", "options": [ "Excellent", "Good", "Fair", "Poor", "Don't know" ], "question_type": "consumer_macro", "category": "consumer_macro", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "likert_poles", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adult citizens (YouGov published frame; Lewsearch n=1000)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-09-18", "gt_source": { "name": "Economist/YouGov weekly poll toplines PDF on yougov.com/en-us/content/the-economist (also CloudFront econtoplines_*.pdf). All-adult-citizen table unless notes say RV.", "url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/content/the-economist" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Read the wave whose interviewing dates cover this Friday field-start. Use the published all-adult-citizen topline. If YouGov prints both intensity and collapsed totals, score the collapsed totals named in winner_call_definition.", "winner_call_definition": "Scored poles: Total Excellent/Good vs Total Fair/Poor (as YouGov prints them). Winner is the larger of the two scored poles on the published topline. Not sure / DK / skipped / Other / will-not-vote are not scored and cannot win. Tie (rounded shares equal, or |margin| < 1pp after standard rounding) is VOID.", "series_id": "yg_econ_now", "unique_stem": "fam_econ_now", "kill_if": "Kill if this Friday has no published wave for this series.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Excellent": 2.9, "Good": 12.0, "Fair": 41.6, "Poor": 40.6, "Don't know": 2.9 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Read the wave whose interviewing dates cover this Friday field-start. Use the published all-adult-citizen topline. If YouGov prints both intensity and collapsed totals, score the collapsed totals named in winner_call_definition." }, { "id": "t1000_yg_house_ballot_20260911", "prediction_id": "t1000_yg_house_ballot_20260911", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[Week of 2026-09-11] In the elections for U.S. Congress in November, who will you vote for in the district where you live?", "options": [ "The Democratic candidate", "The Republican candidate", "Other", "Not sure", "I will not vote" ], "question_type": "politics_tracker", "category": "politics_tracker", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "likert_poles", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adult citizens (YouGov published frame; Lewsearch n=1000)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-09-18", "gt_source": { "name": "Economist/YouGov weekly poll toplines PDF on yougov.com/en-us/content/the-economist (also CloudFront econtoplines_*.pdf). All-adult-citizen table unless notes say RV.", "url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/content/the-economist" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Read the wave whose interviewing dates cover this Friday field-start. Use the published all-adult-citizen topline. If YouGov prints both intensity and collapsed totals, score the collapsed totals named in winner_call_definition.", "winner_call_definition": "Scored poles: Democratic candidate vs Republican candidate on the all-adults topline. Other / Not sure / I will not vote are not scored. Winner is the larger of the two scored poles on the published topline. Not sure / DK / skipped / Other / will-not-vote are not scored and cannot win. Tie (rounded shares equal, or |margin| < 1pp after standard rounding) is VOID.", "series_id": "yg_house_ballot", "unique_stem": "fam_house_ballot", "kill_if": "Kill if field dates are after 2026-11-03, or if YouGov switches to a voted-ballot / recalled-vote stem. Kill if this Friday has no published wave for this series.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "The Democratic candidate": 40.8, "The Republican candidate": 46.9, "Other": 3.0, "Not sure": 4.3, "I will not vote": 5.0 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Read the wave whose interviewing dates cover this Friday field-start. Use the published all-adult-citizen topline. If YouGov prints both intensity and collapsed totals, score the collapsed totals named in winner_call_definition." }, { "id": "t1000_yg_house_majority_20260911", "prediction_id": "t1000_yg_house_majority_20260911", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[Week of 2026-09-11] Which party do you think will have a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives after the elections in November?", "options": [ "Democratic Party", "Republican Party", "Not sure" ], "question_type": "politics_tracker", "category": "politics_tracker", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "likert_poles", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adult citizens (YouGov published frame; Lewsearch n=1000)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-09-18", "gt_source": { "name": "Economist/YouGov weekly poll toplines PDF on yougov.com/en-us/content/the-economist (also CloudFront econtoplines_*.pdf). All-adult-citizen table unless notes say RV.", "url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/content/the-economist" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Read the wave whose interviewing dates cover this Friday field-start. Use the published all-adult-citizen topline. If YouGov prints both intensity and collapsed totals, score the collapsed totals named in winner_call_definition.", "winner_call_definition": "Scored poles: Democratic Party vs Republican Party. Not sure is not scored. Winner is the larger of the two scored poles on the published topline. Not sure / DK / skipped / Other / will-not-vote are not scored and cannot win. Tie (rounded shares equal, or |margin| < 1pp after standard rounding) is VOID.", "series_id": "yg_house_majority", "unique_stem": "fam_house_majority", "kill_if": "Kill if field dates are after 2026-11-03 or the stem is omitted. Kill if this Friday has no published wave for this series.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Democratic Party": 36.1, "Republican Party": 46.7, "Not sure": 17.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Read the wave whose interviewing dates cover this Friday field-start. Use the published all-adult-citizen topline. If YouGov prints both intensity and collapsed totals, score the collapsed totals named in winner_call_definition." }, { "id": "t1000_yg_mip_20260911", "prediction_id": "t1000_yg_mip_20260911", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[Week of 2026-09-11] Which of these is the most important issue for you?", "options": [ "Inflation/prices", "Jobs and the economy", "Health care", "Immigration", "Taxes and government spending", "Climate change and the environment", "Civil rights", "National Security", "Civil liberties", "Crime", "Education", "Abortion", "Guns", "Foreign policy", "Criminal justice reform" ], "question_type": "politics_tracker", "category": "politics_tracker", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "three_way", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adult citizens (YouGov published frame; Lewsearch n=1000)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-09-18", "gt_source": { "name": "Economist/YouGov weekly poll toplines PDF on yougov.com/en-us/content/the-economist (also CloudFront econtoplines_*.pdf). All-adult-citizen table unless notes say RV.", "url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/content/the-economist" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Read the wave whose interviewing dates cover this Friday field-start. Use the published all-adult-citizen topline. If YouGov prints both intensity and collapsed totals, score the collapsed totals named in winner_call_definition.", "winner_call_definition": "Plurality among the 15 closed issues. Winner is the single listed option with the highest published share among scored options. Not sure / DK / skipped are not scored unless they are an explicit listed option and the series publishes them as a share. Tie (rounded shares equal, or |margin| < 1pp) is VOID.", "series_id": "yg_mip", "unique_stem": "fam_mip", "kill_if": "Kill if the closed issue list changes enough that the plurality is not comparable. Kill if this Friday has no published wave for this series.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Inflation/prices": 14.5, "Jobs and the economy": 13.4, "Health care": 8.4, "Immigration": 2.5, "Taxes and government spending": 9.2, "Climate change and the environment": 12.1, "Civil rights": 2.5, "National Security": 2.5, "Civil liberties": 2.5, "Crime": 2.5, "Education": 7.8, "Abortion": 8.7, "Guns": 8.2, "Foreign policy": 2.5, "Criminal justice reform": 2.5 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Read the wave whose interviewing dates cover this Friday field-start. Use the published all-adult-citizen topline. If YouGov prints both intensity and collapsed totals, score the collapsed totals named in winner_call_definition." }, { "id": "t1000_yg_senate_majority_20260911", "prediction_id": "t1000_yg_senate_majority_20260911", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[Week of 2026-09-11] Which party do you think will have a majority in the U.S. Senate after the elections in November?", "options": [ "Democratic Party", "Republican Party", "Not sure" ], "question_type": "politics_tracker", "category": "politics_tracker", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "likert_poles", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adult citizens (YouGov published frame; Lewsearch n=1000)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-09-18", "gt_source": { "name": "Economist/YouGov weekly poll toplines PDF on yougov.com/en-us/content/the-economist (also CloudFront econtoplines_*.pdf). All-adult-citizen table unless notes say RV.", "url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/content/the-economist" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Read the wave whose interviewing dates cover this Friday field-start. Use the published all-adult-citizen topline. If YouGov prints both intensity and collapsed totals, score the collapsed totals named in winner_call_definition.", "winner_call_definition": "Scored poles: Democratic Party vs Republican Party. Not sure is not scored. Winner is the larger of the two scored poles on the published topline. Not sure / DK / skipped / Other / will-not-vote are not scored and cannot win. Tie (rounded shares equal, or |margin| < 1pp after standard rounding) is VOID.", "series_id": "yg_senate_majority", "unique_stem": "fam_senate_majority", "kill_if": "Kill if field dates are after 2026-11-03 or the stem is omitted. Kill if this Friday has no published wave for this series.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Democratic Party": 36.0, "Republican Party": 44.0, "Not sure": 20.0 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Read the wave whose interviewing dates cover this Friday field-start. Use the published all-adult-citizen topline. If YouGov prints both intensity and collapsed totals, score the collapsed totals named in winner_call_definition." }, { "id": "t1000_yg_trump_approval_20260911", "prediction_id": "t1000_yg_trump_approval_20260911", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "[Week of 2026-09-11] Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?", "options": [ "Strongly approve", "Somewhat approve", "Somewhat disapprove", "Strongly disapprove", "Not sure" ], "question_type": "politics_tracker", "category": "politics_tracker", "bucket": "trackers", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "likert_poles", "geography": { "kind": "national", "state": "US", "label": "United States" }, "universe": "U.S. adult citizens (YouGov published frame; Lewsearch n=1000)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2026-09-18", "gt_source": { "name": "Economist/YouGov weekly poll toplines PDF on yougov.com/en-us/content/the-economist (also CloudFront econtoplines_*.pdf). All-adult-citizen table unless notes say RV.", "url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/content/the-economist" }, "gt_source_type": "named_survey", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Read the wave whose interviewing dates cover this Friday field-start. Use the published all-adult-citizen topline. If YouGov prints both intensity and collapsed totals, score the collapsed totals named in winner_call_definition.", "winner_call_definition": "Scored poles: Total Approve vs Total Disapprove (collapse intensity). Winner is the larger of the two scored poles on the published topline. Not sure / DK / skipped / Other / will-not-vote are not scored and cannot win. Tie (rounded shares equal, or |margin| < 1pp after standard rounding) is VOID.", "series_id": "yg_trump_approval", "unique_stem": "fam_trump_approval", "kill_if": "Kill if Trump leaves office or the stem is reworded away from this exact job-approval form. Kill if this Friday has no published wave for this series.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Strongly approve": 33.9, "Somewhat approve": 9.6, "Somewhat disapprove": 11.4, "Strongly disapprove": 37.9, "Not sure": 7.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 20260901, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Read the wave whose interviewing dates cover this Friday field-start. Use the published all-adult-citizen topline. If YouGov prints both intensity and collapsed totals, score the collapsed totals named in winner_call_definition." } ] }, { "market_id": "ak", "state": "Alaska", "geography": "state", "usps": "AK", "n_questions": 7, "panel": { "panel_label": "Alaska statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_ak_bm2_rcv", "prediction_id": "b_ak_bm2_rcv", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Alaska general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Ballot Measure 2, which would repeal the top-four primary and ranked-choice voting system adopted in 2020?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "AK", "label": "Alaska" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Alaska", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_ak_bm2_rcv", "kill_if": "Kill if Alaska Division of Elections removes BM2 from the Nov 3 certified ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 51.3, "No": 48.7 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3786308053, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_ak_bm3_citizenship", "prediction_id": "b_ak_bm3_citizenship", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Alaska general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Ballot Measure 3, which would provide that only a U.S. citizen may vote in any Alaska election?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "AK", "label": "Alaska" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Alaska", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_ak_bm3_citizenship", "kill_if": "Kill if removed from the Nov 3 certified ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 72.4, "No": 27.6 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 4095064447, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "e2026_gov_ak", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_ak", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Alaska were held today, who would you rank first among the top-four general-election candidates?", "options": [ "Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins", "Bernadette Wilson", "Dave Bronson", "Candi English", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_plurality", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "AK", "label": "Alaska" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Alaska (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified RCV winner after Nov 3 2026 top-four general.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: certified first-place finisher (plurality or RCV final). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: share of the named winner among named options after dropping Undecided.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_ak", "kill_if": "The certified Nov 3 top-four field differs from these four names, or a write-in/other wins RCV", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins": 23.0, "Bernadette Wilson": 10.0, "Dave Bronson": 38.1, "Candi English": 12.7, "Undecided": 16.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 4204865011, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified RCV winner after Nov 3 2026 top-four general." }, { "id": "e2026_sen_ak", "prediction_id": "e2026_sen_ak", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate in Alaska were held today, who would you rank first: Democrat Mary Peltola or Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan?", "options": [ "Mary Peltola", "Dan Sullivan", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "AK", "label": "Alaska" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Alaska (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified RCV final after Nov 3 2026 top-four general. Grade on AK Division of Elections ranked-choice winner.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: certified RCV winner. If the other advanced candidate named Dan J. Sullivan (unaffiliated schoolteacher) wins the RCV, this two-way item is killed. MAE: Peltola vs Dan S. Sullivan first-choice or final-round two-way if both reach the final.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "e2026_sen_ak", "kill_if": "Peltola or Sen. Dan Sullivan not in the RCV field, or the other Dan Sullivan wins", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Mary Peltola": 39.1, "Dan Sullivan": 57.8, "Undecided": 3.1 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2470666205, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified RCV final after Nov 3 2026 top-four general. Grade on AK Division of Elections ranked-choice winner." }, { "id": "sm_civiqs_abortion_AK", "prediction_id": "sm_civiqs_abortion_AK", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "Do you think abortion should be:", "options": [ "Legal in all cases", "Legal in most cases", "Illegal in most cases", "Illegal in all cases", "Unsure" ], "question_type": "politics_map", "category": "politics_map", "bucket": "state_map", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "likert_poles", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "AK", "label": "Alaska" }, "universe": "Civiqs registered-voter MRP state cell (GT). Lewsearch fields n=1000 from that state's ACS PUMS adult panel. RV GT vs adult panel is labeled, not silently treated as the same frame.", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "Civiqs public results dashboard, Map View, 3-month window, registered voters. https://civiqs.com/results/abortion_legal?map=true (verified live Aug 2026; abortion_legal)", "url": "https://civiqs.com/results/abortion_legal?map=true" }, "gt_source_type": "tracker", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Open the named Civiqs URL. Click Map View. Set the window to 3M (three months). Read the cell for this state from the last print dated on or before 2027-01-07. Do not use the cumulative Jan-2025 window (that is the Tuesday backtest object). Do not use a 3M print whose window opened before 2026-10-01. Official winner call is the Legal vs Illegal collapse Civiqs already prints (sumTotals). Log the 4-way; do not grade modal box as the headline.", "winner_call_definition": "likert_poles. Collapse the two legal boxes vs the two illegal boxes (Civiqs already prints this collapse as Legal / Illegal). Unsure parked. Winner is the pole with more published mass. Model pole-tie = miss. Actual pole-tie = unscorable. Cluster: this stem is one family.", "series_id": "civiqs_abortion", "unique_stem": "civiqs_abortion", "kill_if": "Kill if Map View does not print a number for this state on the 3M window. Kill if Civiqs drops the stem or rewords a live option. Kill if the only available print is the cumulative pre-freeze window. Kill if this is the Aug 2026 Tuesday backtest cell. Kill if Civiqs drops the Legal/Illegal collapse.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Legal in all cases": 20.2, "Legal in most cases": 22.9, "Illegal in most cases": 33.7, "Illegal in all cases": 20.2, "Unsure": 3.0 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 747442122, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Open the named Civiqs URL. Click Map View. Set the window to 3M (three months). Read the cell for this state from the last print dated on or before 2027-01-07. Do not use the cumulative Jan-2025 window (that is the Tuesday backtest object). Do not use a 3M print whose window opened before 2026-10-01. Official winner call is the Legal vs Illegal collapse Civiqs already prints (sumTotals). Log the 4-way; do not grade modal box as the headline." }, { "id": "sm_civiqs_immigration_AK", "prediction_id": "sm_civiqs_immigration_AK", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "Should the United States deport immigrants living here illegally, or offer them a path to citizenship?", "options": [ "Offer path to citizenship", "Deport", "Neither", "Unsure" ], "question_type": "politics_map", "category": "politics_map", "bucket": "state_map", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "likert_poles", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "AK", "label": "Alaska" }, "universe": "Civiqs registered-voter MRP state cell (GT). Lewsearch fields n=1000 from that state's ACS PUMS adult panel. RV GT vs adult panel is labeled, not silently treated as the same frame.", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "Civiqs public results dashboard, Map View, 3-month window, registered voters. https://civiqs.com/results/immigrants_citizenship?map=true (verified live Aug 2026; immigrants_citizenship)", "url": "https://civiqs.com/results/immigrants_citizenship?map=true" }, "gt_source_type": "tracker", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Open the named Civiqs URL. Click Map View. Set the window to 3M (three months). Read the cell for this state from the last print dated on or before 2027-01-07. Do not use the cumulative Jan-2025 window (that is the Tuesday backtest object). Do not use a 3M print whose window opened before 2026-10-01.", "winner_call_definition": "two_way. Park DK labels (Neither / Unsure / Don't know / no opinion / Both parties). Winner is the larger of the two scored poles on the named print. Model tie or abstain = miss. Actual tie or |margin| < 1pp after the source's own rounding = unscorable. Cluster: this stem is one family, not 50 independent items.", "series_id": "civiqs_immigration", "unique_stem": "civiqs_immigration", "kill_if": "Kill if Map View does not print a number for this state on the 3M window. Kill if Civiqs drops the stem or rewords a live option. Kill if the only available print is the cumulative pre-freeze window. Kill if this is the Aug 2026 Tuesday backtest cell.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Offer path to citizenship": 45.5, "Deport": 48.7, "Neither": 2.9, "Unsure": 2.9 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 1809131780, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Open the named Civiqs URL. Click Map View. Set the window to 3M (three months). Read the cell for this state from the last print dated on or before 2027-01-07. Do not use the cumulative Jan-2025 window (that is the Tuesday backtest object). Do not use a 3M print whose window opened before 2026-10-01." }, { "id": "sm_civiqs_party_concern_AK", "prediction_id": "sm_civiqs_party_concern_AK", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "Which political party do you think is more concerned with the needs of people like you?", "options": [ "Democrats", "Republicans", "Neither", "Both parties/Unsure" ], "question_type": "politics_map", "category": "politics_map", "bucket": "state_map", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "likert_poles", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "AK", "label": "Alaska" }, "universe": "Civiqs registered-voter MRP state cell (GT). Lewsearch fields n=1000 from that state's ACS PUMS adult panel. RV GT vs adult panel is labeled, not silently treated as the same frame.", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "Civiqs public results dashboard, Map View, 3-month window, registered voters. https://civiqs.com/results/party_concerned_more (verified live Aug 2026; party_concerned_more)", "url": "https://civiqs.com/results/party_concerned_more" }, "gt_source_type": "tracker", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Open the named Civiqs URL. Click Map View. Set the window to 3M (three months). Read the cell for this state from the last print dated on or before 2027-01-07. Do not use the cumulative Jan-2025 window (that is the Tuesday backtest object). Do not use a 3M print whose window opened before 2026-10-01.", "winner_call_definition": "two_way. Park DK labels (Neither / Unsure / Don't know / no opinion / Both parties). Winner is the larger of the two scored poles on the named print. Model tie or abstain = miss. Actual tie or |margin| < 1pp after the source's own rounding = unscorable. Cluster: this stem is one family, not 50 independent items.", "series_id": "civiqs_party_concern", "unique_stem": "civiqs_party_concern", "kill_if": "Kill if Map View does not print a number for this state on the 3M window. Kill if Civiqs drops the stem or rewords a live option. Kill if the only available print is the cumulative pre-freeze window. Kill if this is the Aug 2026 Tuesday backtest cell.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Democrats": 31.9, "Republicans": 49.6, "Neither": 15.0, "Both parties/Unsure": 3.5 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3041816953, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Open the named Civiqs URL. Click Map View. Set the window to 3M (three months). Read the cell for this state from the last print dated on or before 2027-01-07. Do not use the cumulative Jan-2025 window (that is the Tuesday backtest object). Do not use a 3M print whose window opened before 2026-10-01." } ] }, { "market_id": "al", "state": "Alabama", "geography": "state", "usps": "AL", "n_questions": 2, "panel": { "panel_label": "Alabama statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "e2026_gov_al", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_al", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Alabama were held today, would you vote for Democrat Doug Jones or Republican Tommy Tuberville?", "options": [ "Doug Jones", "Tommy Tuberville", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "AL", "label": "Alabama" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Alabama (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_al", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Doug Jones": 31.9, "Tommy Tuberville": 63.9, "Undecided": 4.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 4255197868, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_sen_al", "prediction_id": "e2026_sen_al", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Everett Wess or Republican Barry Moore?", "options": [ "Everett Wess", "Barry Moore", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "AL", "label": "Alabama" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Alabama (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "e2026_sen_al", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Everett Wess": 31.7, "Barry Moore": 61.4, "Undecided": 6.9 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2588109538, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "ar", "state": "Arkansas", "geography": "state", "usps": "AR", "n_questions": 3, "panel": { "panel_label": "Arkansas statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_ar_citizenship", "prediction_id": "b_ar_citizenship", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Arkansas general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on the Citizenship Voting Requirement Amendment, which would provide that only a U.S. citizen may vote in an Arkansas election?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "AR", "label": "Arkansas" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Arkansas", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_ar_citizenship", "kill_if": "Kill if not on the Arkansas SoS Nov 3 certified list.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 87.5, "No": 12.5 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3455020593, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "e2026_gov_ar", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_ar", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Arkansas were held today, would you vote for Democrat Fredrick Love or Republican Sarah Huckabee Sanders?", "options": [ "Fredrick Love", "Sarah Huckabee Sanders", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "AR", "label": "Arkansas" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Arkansas (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_ar", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Fredrick Love": 27.1, "Sarah Huckabee Sanders": 68.2, "Undecided": 4.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3818979774, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_sen_ar", "prediction_id": "e2026_sen_ar", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Hallie Shoffner or Republican Tom Cotton?", "options": [ "Hallie Shoffner", "Tom Cotton", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "AR", "label": "Arkansas" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Arkansas (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "e2026_sen_ar", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Hallie Shoffner": 29.1, "Tom Cotton": 65.8, "Undecided": 5.1 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2621664776, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "az", "state": "Arizona", "geography": "state", "usps": "AZ", "n_questions": 8, "panel": { "panel_label": "Arizona statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_az_p144_elections", "prediction_id": "b_az_p144_elections", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Arizona general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Proposition 144, the legislative constitutional amendment that would require government-issued ID to vote and specify that only U.S. citizens may vote in Arizona elections?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "AZ", "label": "Arizona" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Arizona", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://azsos.gov/elections/ballot-measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_az_p144_elections", "kill_if": "Kill if Prop 144 is pulled by court or legislature before freeze.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 67.7, "No": 32.3 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3207149519, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_az_p318_facilities", "prediction_id": "b_az_p318_facilities", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Arizona general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Proposition 318, which would prohibit schools and athletic associations from allowing a person to use a restroom, locker room, or other private facility not designated for their sex?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "AZ", "label": "Arizona" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Arizona", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://azsos.gov/elections/ballot-measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_az_p318_facilities", "kill_if": "Kill if removed from the Nov 3 certified ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 40.1, "No": 59.9 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3986392687, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_az_sc_lopez", "prediction_id": "b_az_sc_lopez", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Arizona Supreme Court retention election were held today, would you vote to retain or not retain Justice John Lopez IV?", "options": [ "Retain", "Do not retain" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "AZ", "label": "Arizona" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Arizona", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://azsos.gov/elections/ballot-measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified retain vs do-not-retain. Simple majority retains.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Retain share of Retain+Do-not-retain (or Yes+No retain language). Winner is Retain if Retain > 50% of those votes (NM 57% threshold does not apply to these rows). Tie is a miss.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_az_sc_lopez", "kill_if": "Kill if Lopez leaves the court before the election or the retention question is removed.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Retain": 69.4, "Do not retain": 30.6 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 19011748, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified retain vs do-not-retain. Simple majority retains." }, { "id": "e2026_bm_az_142", "prediction_id": "e2026_bm_az_142", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 statewide election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Arizona Proposition 142, prohibiting race- or ethnicity-based preferential treatment in government and public education?", "options": [ "Yes", "No", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "AZ", "label": "Arizona" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Arizona (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified Yes/No on the named measure", "url": "https://azsos.gov/elections/ballot-measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified statewide canvass for the named Nov 3 2026 measure.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: Yes if certified Yes > No; No otherwise. Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: Yes share of Yes+No.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "e2026_bm_az_142", "kill_if": "Measure pulled from the Nov 3 2026 ballot, or already decided before freeze", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 53.5, "No": 42.4, "Undecided": 4.0 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 942785175, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified statewide canvass for the named Nov 3 2026 measure." }, { "id": "e2026_bm_az_317", "prediction_id": "e2026_bm_az_317", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 statewide election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Arizona Proposition 317, designating drug cartels as terrorist organizations?", "options": [ "Yes", "No", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "AZ", "label": "Arizona" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Arizona (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified Yes/No on the named measure", "url": "https://azsos.gov/elections/ballot-measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified statewide canvass for the named Nov 3 2026 measure.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: Yes if certified Yes > No; No otherwise. Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: Yes share of Yes+No.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "e2026_bm_az_317", "kill_if": "Measure pulled from the Nov 3 2026 ballot, or already decided before freeze", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 76.5, "No": 20.5, "Undecided": 3.0 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 509193971, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified statewide canvass for the named Nov 3 2026 measure." }, { "id": "e2026_gov_az", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_az", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Arizona were held today, would you vote for Democrat Katie Hobbs or Republican Andy Biggs?", "options": [ "Katie Hobbs", "Andy Biggs", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "AZ", "label": "Arizona" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Arizona (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_az", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Katie Hobbs": 43.1, "Andy Biggs": 51.4, "Undecided": 5.5 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3953200726, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_az01", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_az01", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Arizona's 1st Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Amish Shah or Republican Jay Feely?", "options": [ "Amish Shah", "Jay Feely", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "AZ", "label": "Arizona" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in AZ 1st CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_toss_up", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_az01", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Amish Shah": 43.1, "Jay Feely": 51.5, "Undecided": 5.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2867213883, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_az06", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_az06", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Arizona's 6th Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat JoAnna Mendoza or Republican Juan Ciscomani?", "options": [ "JoAnna Mendoza", "Juan Ciscomani", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "AZ", "label": "Arizona" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in AZ 6th CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_toss_up", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_az06", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "JoAnna Mendoza": 41.0, "Juan Ciscomani": 53.9, "Undecided": 5.1 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2917546740, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "ca", "state": "California", "geography": "state", "usps": "CA", "n_questions": 10, "panel": { "panel_label": "California statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_ca_p39_voter_id", "prediction_id": "b_ca_p39_voter_id", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 California general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Proposition 39, which would require voters to present government-issued identification when voting?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "CA", "label": "California" }, "universe": "Likely voters, California", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ballot-measures/qualified-ballot-measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_ca_p39_voter_id", "kill_if": "Kill if CA SOS removes Prop 39 from the qualified Nov 3 list.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 61.4, "No": 38.6 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3325351129, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_ca_p3_high_income_tax", "prediction_id": "b_ca_p3_high_income_tax", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 California general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Proposition 3, which would extend the existing high-income tax that funds schools and health care?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "CA", "label": "California" }, "universe": "Likely voters, California", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ballot-measures/qualified-ballot-measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_ca_p3_high_income_tax", "kill_if": "Kill if CA SOS removes Prop 3 from the qualified Nov 3 list.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 55.7, "No": 44.3 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 957186690, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_ca_p40_billionaire_tax", "prediction_id": "b_ca_p40_billionaire_tax", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 California general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Proposition 40, the one-time tax on certain ultra-high-net-worth taxpayers (the billionaire wealth tax)?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "CA", "label": "California" }, "universe": "Likely voters, California", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ballot-measures/qualified-ballot-measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_ca_p40_billionaire_tax", "kill_if": "Kill if withdrawn by proponents or removed by court/SOS before freeze.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 49.2, "No": 50.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2142517715, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_ca_p42_no_new_savings_tax", "prediction_id": "b_ca_p42_no_new_savings_tax", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 California general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Proposition 42, which would prohibit new state personal-property taxes and certain retroactive state taxes, including new taxes on retirement holdings and personal savings?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "CA", "label": "California" }, "universe": "Likely voters, California", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ballot-measures/qualified-ballot-measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_ca_p42_no_new_savings_tax", "kill_if": "Kill if CA SOS removes Prop 42 from the qualified Nov 3 list.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 48.6, "No": 51.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 4203732837, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_ca_p43_local_tax_supermajority", "prediction_id": "b_ca_p43_local_tax_supermajority", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 California general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Proposition 43, which would limit voters' ability to raise revenues for local government services, including a two-thirds vote to enact or increase local special taxes?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "CA", "label": "California" }, "universe": "Likely voters, California", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ballot-measures/qualified-ballot-measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_ca_p43_local_tax_supermajority", "kill_if": "Kill if CA SOS removes Prop 43 from the qualified Nov 3 list.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 34.7, "No": 65.3 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2730003190, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "e2026_bm_ca_4", "prediction_id": "e2026_bm_ca_4", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 statewide election were held today, would you vote yes or no on California Proposition 4, allowing public financing of election campaigns?", "options": [ "Yes", "No", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "CA", "label": "California" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in California (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified Yes/No on the named measure", "url": "https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ballot-measures/qualified-ballot-measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified statewide canvass for the named Nov 3 2026 measure.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: Yes if certified Yes > No; No otherwise. Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: Yes share of Yes+No.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "e2026_bm_ca_4", "kill_if": "Measure pulled from the Nov 3 2026 ballot, or already decided before freeze", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 61.8, "No": 33.0, "Undecided": 5.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 716221549, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified statewide canvass for the named Nov 3 2026 measure." }, { "id": "e2026_gov_ca", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_ca", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of California were held today, would you vote for Democrat Xavier Becerra or Republican Steve Hilton?", "options": [ "Xavier Becerra", "Steve Hilton", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "CA", "label": "California" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in California (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_ca", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Xavier Becerra": 62.7, "Steve Hilton": 30.0, "Undecided": 7.3 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3835463203, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_ca13", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_ca13", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in California's 13th Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Adam Gray or Republican Kevin Lincoln II?", "options": [ "Adam Gray", "Kevin Lincoln II", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "CA", "label": "California" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in CA 13th CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_lean_d", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_ca13", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Adam Gray": 61.4, "Kevin Lincoln II": 32.6, "Undecided": 6.1 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3695407551, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_ca22", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_ca22", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in California's 22nd Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Randy Villegas or Republican David Valadao?", "options": [ "Randy Villegas", "David Valadao", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "CA", "label": "California" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in CA 22nd CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_toss_up", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_ca22", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Randy Villegas": 53.6, "David Valadao": 37.2, "Undecided": 9.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 1262211511, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_ca48", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_ca48", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in California's 48th Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Marni von Wilpert or Republican Jim Desmond?", "options": [ "Marni von Wilpert", "Jim Desmond", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "CA", "label": "California" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in CA 48th CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_lean_d", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_ca48", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Marni von Wilpert": 62.8, "Jim Desmond": 30.1, "Undecided": 7.0 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3577125575, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "co", "state": "Colorado", "geography": "state", "usps": "CO", "n_questions": 9, "panel": { "panel_label": "Colorado statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_co_mail_voter_id", "prediction_id": "b_co_mail_voter_id", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Colorado general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on the initiative requiring voters who cast mail ballots to provide a Real ID or equivalent voter identification with the ballot?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "CO", "label": "Colorado" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Colorado", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_co_mail_voter_id", "kill_if": "Kill if not on the Colorado SOS certified Nov 3 list.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 84.8, "No": 15.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2380123686, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_co_minor_surgery", "prediction_id": "b_co_minor_surgery", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Colorado general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on the measure prohibiting health-care professionals from providing surgeries to people under 18 as treatment in response to a minor's perception of sex or gender?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "CO", "label": "Colorado" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Colorado", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_co_minor_surgery", "kill_if": "Kill if not on the Colorado SOS certified Nov 3 list.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 37.9, "No": 62.1 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 129378735, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_co_prop_nn", "prediction_id": "b_co_prop_nn", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Colorado general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Proposition NN, which would increase the TABOR revenue cap and use surplus funds for K-12 education?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "CO", "label": "Colorado" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Colorado", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_co_prop_nn", "kill_if": "Kill if Prop NN is not on the certified Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 57.0, "No": 43.0 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 762572930, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_co_sports_sex", "prediction_id": "b_co_sports_sex", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Colorado general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on the initiative requiring K-12 and collegiate sports teams to be separated by biological sex, unless the team is co-ed?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "CO", "label": "Colorado" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Colorado", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_co_sports_sex", "kill_if": "Kill if not on the Colorado SOS certified Nov 3 list.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 59.3, "No": 40.7 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 884459686, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_co_tax_cap_44", "prediction_id": "b_co_tax_cap_44", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Colorado general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on the initiative to establish a 4.4 percent cap on individual and corporate income tax rates?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "CO", "label": "Colorado" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Colorado", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_co_tax_cap_44", "kill_if": "Kill if Colorado SOS does not list it on the certified Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 58.9, "No": 41.1 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 460610891, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "e2026_bm_co_ice", "prediction_id": "e2026_bm_co_ice", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 statewide election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Colorado's initiative requiring law enforcement to notify Homeland Security after charging certain non-citizens?", "options": [ "Yes", "No", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "CO", "label": "Colorado" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Colorado (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified Yes/No on the named measure", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified statewide canvass for the named Nov 3 2026 measure.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: Yes if certified Yes > No; No otherwise. Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: Yes share of Yes+No.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "e2026_bm_co_ice", "kill_if": "Measure pulled from the Nov 3 2026 ballot, or already decided before freeze", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 51.4, "No": 45.2, "Undecided": 3.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3890180202, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified statewide canvass for the named Nov 3 2026 measure." }, { "id": "e2026_gov_co", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_co", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Colorado were held today, would you vote for Democrat Phil Weiser or Republican Victor Marx?", "options": [ "Phil Weiser", "Victor Marx", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "CO", "label": "Colorado" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Colorado (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_co", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Phil Weiser": 48.9, "Victor Marx": 43.7, "Undecided": 7.5 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3734797489, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_co08", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_co08", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Colorado's 8th Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Manny Rutinel or Republican Gabe Evans?", "options": [ "Manny Rutinel", "Gabe Evans", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "CO", "label": "Colorado" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in CO 8th CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_toss_up", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_co08", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Manny Rutinel": 47.2, "Gabe Evans": 47.1, "Undecided": 5.6 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 1133059257, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_sen_co", "prediction_id": "e2026_sen_co", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat John Hickenlooper or Republican Mark Baisley?", "options": [ "John Hickenlooper", "Mark Baisley", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "CO", "label": "Colorado" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Colorado (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "e2026_sen_co", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "John Hickenlooper": 53.6, "Mark Baisley": 43.0, "Undecided": 3.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2538070871, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "ct", "state": "Connecticut", "geography": "state", "usps": "CT", "n_questions": 1, "panel": { "panel_label": "Connecticut statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "e2026_gov_ct", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_ct", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Connecticut were held today, would you vote for Democrat Ned Lamont or Republican Ryan Fazio?", "options": [ "Ned Lamont", "Ryan Fazio", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "CT", "label": "Connecticut" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Connecticut (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_ct", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Ned Lamont": 51.9, "Ryan Fazio": 42.4, "Undecided": 5.7 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 4187793202, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "fl", "state": "Florida", "geography": "state", "usps": "FL", "n_questions": 6, "panel": { "panel_label": "Florida statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_fl_amd3_homestead", "prediction_id": "b_fl_amd3_homestead", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Florida general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Amendment 3, which would increase the homestead tax exemption, lower the non-homestead assessment-increase cap, and limit how municipalities can spend property-tax revenue?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "FL", "label": "Florida" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Florida", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Adopted only if Yes is at least 60% of Yes+No (Florida constitutional-amendment rule). Certified Division of Elections canvass.", "winner_call_definition": "Predict Yes only if certified Yes share of Yes+No is >= 60.0%. Otherwise No. A 50-59% Yes plurality is a REJECT / No win.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_fl_amd3_homestead", "kill_if": "Kill if Amendment 3 is not on the FL Division of Elections Nov 3 list.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 79.0, "No": 21.0 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 4116248368, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Adopted only if Yes is at least 60% of Yes+No (Florida constitutional-amendment rule). Certified Division of Elections canvass." }, { "id": "e2026_gov_fl", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_fl", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Florida were held today, would you vote for Democrat David Jolly or Republican Byron Donalds?", "options": [ "David Jolly", "Byron Donalds", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "FL", "label": "Florida" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Florida (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_fl", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "David Jolly": 39.9, "Byron Donalds": 55.7, "Undecided": 4.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3684905917, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_fl14", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_fl14", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Florida's 14th Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Kathy Castor or Republican Mike Beltran?", "options": [ "Kathy Castor", "Mike Beltran", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "FL", "label": "Florida" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in FL 14th CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_toss_up", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_fl14", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Kathy Castor": 42.3, "Mike Beltran": 52.1, "Undecided": 5.6 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2655083714, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_fl22", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_fl22", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Florida's 22nd Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Pia Dandiya or Republican Casey Askar?", "options": [ "Pia Dandiya", "Casey Askar", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "FL", "label": "Florida" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in FL 22nd CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_lean_r", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_fl22", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Pia Dandiya": 39.6, "Casey Askar": 53.1, "Undecided": 7.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 507798745, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_fl25", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_fl25", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Florida's 25th Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Jared Moskowitz or Republican Scott Singer?", "options": [ "Jared Moskowitz", "Scott Singer", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "FL", "label": "Florida" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in FL 25th CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_toss_up", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_fl25", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Jared Moskowitz": 44.6, "Scott Singer": 51.8, "Undecided": 3.6 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 491021126, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_sen_fl_special", "prediction_id": "e2026_sen_fl_special", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 special election for U.S. Senate in Florida were held today, would you vote for Democrat Angie Nixon or Republican Ashley Moody?", "options": [ "Angie Nixon", "Ashley Moody", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "FL", "label": "Florida" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Florida (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate_special", "unique_stem": "e2026_sen_fl_special", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Angie Nixon": 38.1, "Ashley Moody": 55.3, "Undecided": 6.6 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 1807630275, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "ga", "state": "Georgia", "geography": "state", "usps": "GA", "n_questions": 2, "panel": { "panel_label": "Georgia statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "e2026_gov_ga", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_ga", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Georgia were held today, would you vote for Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms or Republican Rick Jackson?", "options": [ "Keisha Lance Bottoms", "Rick Jackson", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "GA", "label": "Georgia" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Georgia (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_ga", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Keisha Lance Bottoms": 45.5, "Rick Jackson": 47.2, "Undecided": 7.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 4238714439, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "ga_senate_matchup_2026", "prediction_id": "ga_senate_matchup_2026", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Jon Ossoff or Republican Mike Collins?", "options": [ "Jon Ossoff", "Mike Collins", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "GA", "label": "Georgia" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Georgia (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "ga_senate_matchup_2026", "kill_if": "Ossoff or Collins not on the general/runoff ballot", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Jon Ossoff": 45.8, "Mike Collins": 48.0, "Undecided": 6.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3056779643, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Question text previously frozen on /predictions (Issue 03 Senate); the November 2026 certified result does not yet exist. Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "hi", "state": "Hawaii", "geography": "state", "usps": "HI", "n_questions": 1, "panel": { "panel_label": "Hawaii statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "e2026_gov_hi", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_hi", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Hawaii were held today, would you vote for Democrat Josh Green or Republican Gary Cordery?", "options": [ "Josh Green", "Gary Cordery", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "HI", "label": "Hawaii" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Hawaii (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_hi", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Josh Green": 64.6, "Gary Cordery": 29.1, "Undecided": 6.3 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3834330370, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "ia", "state": "Iowa", "geography": "state", "usps": "IA", "n_questions": 6, "panel": { "panel_label": "Iowa statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_ia_amd1_tax_supermajority", "prediction_id": "b_ia_amd1_tax_supermajority", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Iowa general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Amendment 1, which would require a two-thirds vote of both legislative chambers to pass a bill that increases the individual or corporate income-tax rate?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "IA", "label": "Iowa" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Iowa", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_ia_amd1_tax_supermajority", "kill_if": "Kill if not on the Iowa SoS Nov 3 certified list.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 27.2, "No": 72.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 459722822, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "e2026_gov_ia", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_ia", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Iowa were held today, would you vote for Democrat Rob Sand or Republican Zach Lahn?", "options": [ "Rob Sand", "Zach Lahn", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "IA", "label": "Iowa" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Iowa (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_ia", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Rob Sand": 37.8, "Zach Lahn": 56.1, "Undecided": 6.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 9283501, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_ia01", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_ia01", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Iowa's 1st Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Christina Bohannan or Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks?", "options": [ "Christina Bohannan", "Mariannette Miller-Meeks", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "IA", "label": "Iowa" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in IA 1st CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_toss_up", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_ia01", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Christina Bohannan": 37.8, "Mariannette Miller-Meeks": 59.2, "Undecided": 3.0 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 569275824, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_ia02", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_ia02", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Iowa's 2nd Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Lindsay James or Republican Joe Mitchell?", "options": [ "Lindsay James", "Joe Mitchell", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "IA", "label": "Iowa" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in IA 2nd CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_lean_r", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_ia02", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Lindsay James": 37.6, "Joe Mitchell": 54.9, "Undecided": 7.5 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 586053443, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_ia03", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_ia03", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Iowa's 3rd Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott or Republican Zach Nunn?", "options": [ "Sarah Trone Garriott", "Zach Nunn", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "IA", "label": "Iowa" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in IA 3rd CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_toss_up", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_ia03", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Sarah Trone Garriott": 38.5, "Zach Nunn": 56.7, "Undecided": 4.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 602831062, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_sen_ia", "prediction_id": "e2026_sen_ia", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Josh Turek or Republican Ashley Hinson?", "options": [ "Josh Turek", "Ashley Hinson", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "IA", "label": "Iowa" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Iowa (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "e2026_sen_ia", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Josh Turek": 34.9, "Ashley Hinson": 59.9, "Undecided": 5.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3176606131, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "id", "state": "Idaho", "geography": "state", "usps": "ID", "n_questions": 4, "panel": { "panel_label": "Idaho statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_id_hjr4_marijuana", "prediction_id": "b_id_hjr4_marijuana", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Idaho general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on HJR 4, which would provide that only the state legislature has the authority to legalize marijuana, narcotics, or other psychoactive substances?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "ID", "label": "Idaho" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Idaho", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_id_hjr4_marijuana", "kill_if": "Kill if not on the Idaho SoS Nov 3 certified list.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 63.8, "No": 36.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3448008732, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_id_p1_abortion", "prediction_id": "b_id_p1_abortion", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Idaho general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Proposition 1, which would provide in statute that people have a right to reproductive freedom and privacy, defined as the right to make and carry out one's own reproductive decisions?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "ID", "label": "Idaho" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Idaho", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_id_p1_abortion", "kill_if": "Kill if Idaho SoS removes Prop 1 from the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 36.9, "No": 63.1 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3920268377, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "e2026_gov_id", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_id", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Idaho were held today, would you vote for Democrat Terri Pickens or Republican Brad Little?", "options": [ "Terri Pickens", "Brad Little", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "ID", "label": "Idaho" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Idaho (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_id", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Terri Pickens": 25.9, "Brad Little": 69.9, "Undecided": 4.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 93171596, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_sen_id", "prediction_id": "e2026_sen_id", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat David Roth or Republican Jim Risch?", "options": [ "David Roth", "Jim Risch", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "ID", "label": "Idaho" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Idaho (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "e2026_sen_id", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "David Roth": 24.7, "Jim Risch": 70.0, "Undecided": 5.3 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3260494226, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "il", "state": "Illinois", "geography": "state", "usps": "IL", "n_questions": 2, "panel": { "panel_label": "Illinois statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "e2026_gov_il", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_il", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Illinois were held today, would you vote for Democrat JB Pritzker or Republican Darren Bailey?", "options": [ "JB Pritzker", "Darren Bailey", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "IL", "label": "Illinois" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Illinois (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_il", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "JB Pritzker": 58.5, "Darren Bailey": 36.7, "Undecided": 4.9 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 4253917940, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_sen_il", "prediction_id": "e2026_sen_il", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Juliana Stratton or Republican Don Tracy?", "options": [ "Juliana Stratton", "Don Tracy", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "IL", "label": "Illinois" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Illinois (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "e2026_sen_il", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Juliana Stratton": 53.5, "Don Tracy": 40.5, "Undecided": 6.0 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3126273274, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "ks", "state": "Kansas", "geography": "state", "usps": "KS", "n_questions": 4, "panel": { "panel_label": "Kansas statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_ks_citizenship", "prediction_id": "b_ks_citizenship", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Kansas general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on the Citizenship Voting Requirement Amendment, which would state that only a U.S. citizen is eligible to vote?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "KS", "label": "Kansas" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Kansas", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_ks_citizenship", "kill_if": "Kill if not on the Kansas SoS Nov 3 certified list.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 77.9, "No": 22.1 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2701794690, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_ks_sc_rosen", "prediction_id": "b_ks_sc_rosen", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Kansas Supreme Court retention election were held today, would you vote to retain or not retain Justice Eric Rosen?", "options": [ "Retain", "Do not retain" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "KS", "label": "Kansas" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Kansas", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified retain vs do-not-retain. Simple majority retains.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Retain share of Retain+Do-not-retain (or Yes+No retain language). Winner is Retain if Retain > 50% of those votes (NM 57% threshold does not apply to these rows). Tie is a miss.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_ks_sc_rosen", "kill_if": "Kill if Rosen leaves the court or the retention question is removed.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Retain": 64.0, "Do not retain": 36.0 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 1543083840, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified retain vs do-not-retain. Simple majority retains." }, { "id": "e2026_gov_ks", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_ks", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Kansas were held today, would you vote for Democrat Cindy Holscher or Republican Ty Masterson?", "options": [ "Cindy Holscher", "Ty Masterson", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "KS", "label": "Kansas" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Kansas (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_ks", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Cindy Holscher": 32.8, "Ty Masterson": 62.0, "Undecided": 5.3 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3800628037, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_sen_ks", "prediction_id": "e2026_sen_ks", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Adam Hamilton or Republican Roger Marshall?", "options": [ "Adam Hamilton", "Roger Marshall", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "KS", "label": "Kansas" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Kansas (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "e2026_sen_ks", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Adam Hamilton": 33.6, "Roger Marshall": 60.1, "Undecided": 6.3 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2606461275, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "ky", "state": "Kentucky", "geography": "state", "usps": "KY", "n_questions": 1, "panel": { "panel_label": "Kentucky statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "e2026_sen_ky", "prediction_id": "e2026_sen_ky", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Charles Booker or Republican Andy Barr?", "options": [ "Charles Booker", "Andy Barr", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "KY", "label": "Kentucky" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Kentucky (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "e2026_sen_ky", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Charles Booker": 27.4, "Andy Barr": 65.2, "Undecided": 7.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2707126989, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "la", "state": "Louisiana", "geography": "state", "usps": "LA", "n_questions": 1, "panel": { "panel_label": "Louisiana statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "e2026_sen_la", "prediction_id": "e2026_sen_la", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Jamie Davis or Republican Julia Letlow?", "options": [ "Jamie Davis", "Julia Letlow", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "LA", "label": "Louisiana" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Louisiana (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "e2026_sen_la", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Jamie Davis": 34.3, "Julia Letlow": 58.7, "Undecided": 7.0 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2975715988, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "ma", "state": "Massachusetts", "geography": "state", "usps": "MA", "n_questions": 7, "panel": { "panel_label": "Massachusetts statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_ma_q3_toptwo", "prediction_id": "b_ma_q3_toptwo", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Massachusetts general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Question 3, which would eliminate party primaries for state elections and create a single top-two primary listing candidates regardless of party?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "MA", "label": "Massachusetts" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Massachusetts", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_ma_q3_toptwo", "kill_if": "Kill if MA SoS removes Q3 from the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 41.4, "No": 58.6 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3550433130, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_ma_q4_same_day", "prediction_id": "b_ma_q4_same_day", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Massachusetts general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Question 4, which would provide for same-day voter registration?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "MA", "label": "Massachusetts" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Massachusetts", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_ma_q4_same_day", "kill_if": "Kill if MA SoS removes Q4 from the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 76.3, "No": 23.7 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 1248990427, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_ma_q5_revenue_limit", "prediction_id": "b_ma_q5_revenue_limit", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Massachusetts general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Question 5, which would change the limit on how much revenue the state can collect in a given year?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "MA", "label": "Massachusetts" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Massachusetts", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_ma_q5_revenue_limit", "kill_if": "Kill if MA SoS removes Q5 from the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 56.2, "No": 43.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 624938437, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_ma_q7_housing", "prediction_id": "b_ma_q7_housing", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Massachusetts general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Question 7, which would require cities and towns to allow single-family homes on residentially zoned lots of at least 5,000 square feet?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "MA", "label": "Massachusetts" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Massachusetts", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_ma_q7_housing", "kill_if": "Kill if MA SoS removes Q7 from the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 49.6, "No": 50.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 110208002, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_ma_q8_marijuana_repeal", "prediction_id": "b_ma_q8_marijuana_repeal", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Massachusetts general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Question 8, which would repeal laws that permit the sale of recreational marijuana and home cultivation of cannabis?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "MA", "label": "Massachusetts" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Massachusetts", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_ma_q8_marijuana_repeal", "kill_if": "Kill if MA SoS removes Q8 from the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 28.1, "No": 71.9 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2187281420, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_ma_q9_guns", "prediction_id": "b_ma_q9_guns", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Massachusetts general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Question 9, the veto referendum on whether to uphold the 2024 Act Modernizing Firearm Laws (H.4885)?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "MA", "label": "Massachusetts" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Massachusetts", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Yes/No on the referendum as printed. Yes upholds H.4885; No repeals it. Confirm official ballot Yes/No mapping on the MA SoS pamphlet before freeze.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner is the certified plurality of Yes vs No as printed on the ballot. Confirm Yes=uphold before scoring.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_ma_q9_guns", "kill_if": "Kill if Q9 is not on the MA SoS Nov 3 ballot, or if official Yes/No mapping cannot be locked by Sep 5.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 64.7, "No": 35.3 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 128286656, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Yes/No on the referendum as printed. Yes upholds H.4885; No repeals it. Confirm official ballot Yes/No mapping on the MA SoS pamphlet before freeze." }, { "id": "e2026_gov_ma", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_ma", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Massachusetts were held today, would you vote for Democrat Maura Healey or Republican Brian Shortsleeve?", "options": [ "Maura Healey", "Brian Shortsleeve", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "MA", "label": "Massachusetts" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Massachusetts (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_ma", "kill_if": "Named candidate loses a remaining primary or is replaced on the Nov 3 ballot", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Maura Healey": 62.8, "Brian Shortsleeve": 31.0, "Undecided": 6.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3633837585, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "md", "state": "Maryland", "geography": "state", "usps": "MD", "n_questions": 2, "panel": { "panel_label": "Maryland statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_md_q3_redistricting", "prediction_id": "b_md_q3_redistricting", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Maryland general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Question 3, which would provide that constitutional requirements for legislative districts apply only to state legislative districts and not to congressional districts?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "MD", "label": "Maryland" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Maryland", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_md_q3_redistricting", "kill_if": "Kill if MD State Board of Elections does not list Question 3 on the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 58.8, "No": 41.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2268481483, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "e2026_gov_md", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_md", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Maryland were held today, would you vote for Democrat Wes Moore or Republican Dan Cox?", "options": [ "Wes Moore", "Dan Cox", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "MD", "label": "Maryland" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Maryland (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_md", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Wes Moore": 66.3, "Dan Cox": 28.6, "Undecided": 5.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3583504728, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "me", "state": "Maine", "geography": "state", "usps": "ME", "n_questions": 1, "panel": { "panel_label": "Maine statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "e2026_gov_me", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_me", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Maine were held today, would you vote for Democrat Hannah Pingree or Republican Robert B. Charles?", "options": [ "Hannah Pingree", "Robert B. Charles", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "ME", "label": "Maine" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Maine (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_me", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Hannah Pingree": 47.9, "Robert B. Charles": 45.1, "Undecided": 7.0 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3566727109, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "mi", "state": "Michigan", "geography": "state", "usps": "MI", "n_questions": 6, "panel": { "panel_label": "Michigan statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_mi_concon", "prediction_id": "b_mi_concon", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Michigan general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on the automatic ballot question asking whether Michigan should hold a state constitutional convention?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "MI", "label": "Michigan" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Michigan", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_mi_concon", "kill_if": "Kill only if the automatic question is removed (should not happen).", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 42.6, "No": 57.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 4126776606, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "e2026_gov_mi", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_mi", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Michigan were held today, would you vote for Democrat Jocelyn Benson or Republican John James?", "options": [ "Jocelyn Benson", "John James", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "MI", "label": "Michigan" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Michigan (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_mi", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Jocelyn Benson": 43.6, "John James": 49.8, "Undecided": 6.6 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3768058537, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_mi04", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_mi04", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Michigan's 4th Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Sean McCann or Republican Bill Huizenga?", "options": [ "Sean McCann", "Bill Huizenga", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "MI", "label": "Michigan" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in MI 4th CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_lean_r", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_mi04", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Sean McCann": 42.2, "Bill Huizenga": 52.3, "Undecided": 5.5 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 24875341, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_mi07", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_mi07", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Michigan's 7th Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat William Lawrence or Republican Tom Barrett?", "options": [ "William Lawrence", "Tom Barrett", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "MI", "label": "Michigan" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in MI 7th CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_toss_up", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_mi07", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "William Lawrence": 43.2, "Tom Barrett": 51.4, "Undecided": 5.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 75208198, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_mi10", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_mi10", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Michigan's 10th Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Christina Hines or Republican Michael Bouchard?", "options": [ "Christina Hines", "Michael Bouchard", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "MI", "label": "Michigan" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in MI 10th CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_toss_up", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_mi10", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Christina Hines": 44.5, "Michael Bouchard": 51.2, "Undecided": 4.3 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 192798626, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_sen_mi", "prediction_id": "e2026_sen_mi", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Abdul El-Sayed or Republican Mike Rogers?", "options": [ "Abdul El-Sayed", "Mike Rogers", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "MI", "label": "Michigan" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Michigan (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "e2026_sen_mi", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Abdul El-Sayed": 37.3, "Mike Rogers": 55.1, "Undecided": 7.6 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2640310703, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "mn", "state": "Minnesota", "geography": "state", "usps": "MN", "n_questions": 2, "panel": { "panel_label": "Minnesota statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "e2026_gov_mn", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_mn", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Minnesota were held today, would you vote for Democrat Amy Klobuchar or Republican Lisa Demuth?", "options": [ "Amy Klobuchar", "Lisa Demuth", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "MN", "label": "Minnesota" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Minnesota (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_mn", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Amy Klobuchar": 48.8, "Lisa Demuth": 47.0, "Undecided": 4.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3751280918, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_sen_mn", "prediction_id": "e2026_sen_mn", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Peggy Flanagan or Republican Michele Tafoya?", "options": [ "Peggy Flanagan", "Michele Tafoya", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "MN", "label": "Minnesota" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Minnesota (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "e2026_sen_mn", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Peggy Flanagan": 47.3, "Michele Tafoya": 48.3, "Undecided": 4.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2556422608, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "mo", "state": "Missouri", "geography": "state", "usps": "MO", "n_questions": 2, "panel": { "panel_label": "Missouri statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_mo_amd3_abortion", "prediction_id": "b_mo_amd3_abortion", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Missouri general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Amendment 3, which would prohibit abortion in most cases and prohibit gender-transition procedures for minors under 18?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "MO", "label": "Missouri" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Missouri", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_mo_amd3_abortion", "kill_if": "Kill if MO SoS removes Amendment 3 from the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 56.6, "No": 43.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2570042510, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_mo_sc_wilson", "prediction_id": "b_mo_sc_wilson", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Missouri Supreme Court retention election were held today, would you vote to retain or not retain Justice Paul Wilson?", "options": [ "Retain", "Do not retain" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "MO", "label": "Missouri" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Missouri", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified retain vs do-not-retain. Simple majority retains.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Retain share of Retain+Do-not-retain (or Yes+No retain language). Winner is Retain if Retain > 50% of those votes (NM 57% threshold does not apply to these rows). Tie is a miss.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_mo_sc_wilson", "kill_if": "Kill if there is no public poll and no organized anti-retention campaign by Sep 5 (optional kill for un-polled retention).", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Retain": 69.9, "Do not retain": 30.1 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 227256943, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified retain vs do-not-retain. Simple majority retains." } ] }, { "market_id": "ms", "state": "Mississippi", "geography": "state", "usps": "MS", "n_questions": 1, "panel": { "panel_label": "Mississippi statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "e2026_sen_ms", "prediction_id": "e2026_sen_ms", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Scott Colom or Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith?", "options": [ "Scott Colom", "Cindy Hyde-Smith", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "MS", "label": "Mississippi" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Mississippi (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "e2026_sen_ms", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Scott Colom": 33.2, "Cindy Hyde-Smith": 61.1, "Undecided": 5.7 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2740976417, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "mt", "state": "Montana", "geography": "state", "usps": "MT", "n_questions": 2, "panel": { "panel_label": "Montana statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_mt_ci132_nonpartisan", "prediction_id": "b_mt_ci132_nonpartisan", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Montana general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on CI-132, which would require all judicial elections in Montana to be nonpartisan?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "MT", "label": "Montana" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Montana", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_mt_ci132_nonpartisan", "kill_if": "Kill if Montana SOS removes CI-132 from the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 51.9, "No": 48.1 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 1086703833, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "e2026_sen_mt", "prediction_id": "e2026_sen_mt", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Alani Bankhead or Republican Kurt Alme?", "options": [ "Alani Bankhead", "Kurt Alme", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "MT", "label": "Montana" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Montana (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "e2026_sen_mt", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Alani Bankhead": 32.3, "Kurt Alme": 59.1, "Undecided": 8.7 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2724198798, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "nc", "state": "North Carolina", "geography": "state", "usps": "NC", "n_questions": 5, "panel": { "panel_label": "North Carolina statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_nc_tax_cap", "prediction_id": "b_nc_tax_cap", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 North Carolina general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on the constitutional amendment reducing the maximum allowable state income-tax rate from 7 percent to 3.5 percent?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "NC", "label": "North Carolina" }, "universe": "Likely voters, North Carolina", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_nc_tax_cap", "kill_if": "Kill if not on the NC Nov 3 certified list.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 56.8, "No": 43.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3654942281, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_nc_voter_id", "prediction_id": "b_nc_voter_id", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 North Carolina general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on the constitutional amendment requiring photographic identification to vote for all voters, not just those voting in person?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "NC", "label": "North Carolina" }, "universe": "Likely voters, North Carolina", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_nc_voter_id", "kill_if": "Kill if NC State Board of Elections does not list it on the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 84.6, "No": 15.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2972841329, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "e2026_house_nc01", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_nc01", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in North Carolina's 1st Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Don Davis or Republican Laurie Buckhout?", "options": [ "Don Davis", "Laurie Buckhout", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "NC", "label": "North Carolina" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in NC 1st CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_lean_r", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_nc01", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Don Davis": 45.0, "Laurie Buckhout": 49.2, "Undecided": 5.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 201628039, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_nc11", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_nc11", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in North Carolina's 11th Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Jamie Ager or Republican Jennifer Balkcom?", "options": [ "Jamie Ager", "Jennifer Balkcom", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "NC", "label": "North Carolina" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in NC 11th CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_lean_r", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_nc11", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Jamie Ager": 42.0, "Jennifer Balkcom": 50.3, "Undecided": 7.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 134370468, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "nc_senate_matchup_2026", "prediction_id": "nc_senate_matchup_2026", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Roy Cooper or Republican Michael Whatley?", "options": [ "Roy Cooper", "Michael Whatley", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "NC", "label": "North Carolina" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in North Carolina (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "nc_senate_matchup_2026", "kill_if": "Cooper or Whatley not on the Nov 3 ballot", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Roy Cooper": 43.7, "Michael Whatley": 52.7, "Undecided": 3.6 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 1583228154, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Question text previously frozen on /predictions (Issue 03 Senate); the November 2026 certified result does not yet exist. Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "nd", "state": "North Dakota", "geography": "state", "usps": "ND", "n_questions": 1, "panel": { "panel_label": "North Dakota statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_nd_m1_supermajority", "prediction_id": "b_nd_m1_supermajority", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 North Dakota general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Constitutional Measure 1, which would require future constitutional amendments to receive a 60 percent supermajority to be adopted?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "ND", "label": "North Dakota" }, "universe": "Likely voters, North Dakota", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_nd_m1_supermajority", "kill_if": "Kill if ND SoS removes Measure 1 from the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 61.2, "No": 38.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2018537609, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." } ] }, { "market_id": "ne", "state": "Nebraska", "geography": "state", "usps": "NE", "n_questions": 6, "panel": { "panel_label": "Nebraska statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_ne_sports_const", "prediction_id": "b_ne_sports_const", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Nebraska general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on the constitutional amendment authorizing the legislature to enact laws governing online sports betting?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "NE", "label": "Nebraska" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Nebraska", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_ne_sports_const", "kill_if": "Kill if Nebraska SoS does not list it on the certified Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 53.8, "No": 46.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3374474468, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_ne_sports_sex", "prediction_id": "b_ne_sports_sex", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Nebraska general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on the initiative requiring schools to designate sports teams as male, female, or co-ed and prohibiting male participation on female sports teams?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "NE", "label": "Nebraska" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Nebraska", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_ne_sports_sex", "kill_if": "Kill if Nebraska SoS certification deadline (Sep 11) does not include this measure. Re-check Sep 5.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 56.3, "No": 43.7 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 414801813, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_ne_sports_statute", "prediction_id": "b_ne_sports_statute", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Nebraska general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on the initiative authorizing and regulating online sports betting and directing the state gaming commission to adopt rules?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "NE", "label": "Nebraska" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Nebraska", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_ne_sports_statute", "kill_if": "Kill if Nebraska SoS does not list it on the certified Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 48.9, "No": 51.1 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2065926515, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "e2026_gov_ne", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_ne", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Nebraska were held today, would you vote for Democrat Lynne Walz or Republican Jim Pillen?", "options": [ "Lynne Walz", "Jim Pillen", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "NE", "label": "Nebraska" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Nebraska (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_ne", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Lynne Walz": 29.2, "Jim Pillen": 65.3, "Undecided": 5.5 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3834624560, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_ne02", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_ne02", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Denise Powell or Republican Brinker Harding?", "options": [ "Denise Powell", "Brinker Harding", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "NE", "label": "Nebraska" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in NE 2nd CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_lean_d", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_ne02", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Denise Powell": 29.3, "Brinker Harding": 65.4, "Undecided": 5.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 4115484606, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_sen_ne", "prediction_id": "e2026_sen_ne", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate in Nebraska were held today, would you vote for independent Dan Osborn or Republican Pete Ricketts?", "options": [ "Dan Osborn", "Pete Ricketts", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "NE", "label": "Nebraska" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Nebraska (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "e2026_sen_ne", "kill_if": "Osborn or Ricketts not on the Nov 3 ballot, or a Democratic nominee is added and finishes first", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Dan Osborn": 29.8, "Pete Ricketts": 67.2, "Undecided": 3.0 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3244452082, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "nj", "state": "New Jersey", "geography": "state", "usps": "NJ", "n_questions": 2, "panel": { "panel_label": "New Jersey statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "e2026_house_nj07", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_nj07", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in New Jersey's 7th Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Rebecca Bennett or Republican Thomas Kean Jr.?", "options": [ "Rebecca Bennett", "Thomas Kean Jr.", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "NJ", "label": "New Jersey" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in NJ 7th CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_toss_up", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_nj07", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Rebecca Bennett": 51.6, "Thomas Kean Jr.": 44.2, "Undecided": 4.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 847687032, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_sen_nj", "prediction_id": "e2026_sen_nj", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Cory Booker or Republican Justin Murphy?", "options": [ "Cory Booker", "Justin Murphy", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "NJ", "label": "New Jersey" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in New Jersey (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "e2026_sen_nj", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Cory Booker": 62.3, "Justin Murphy": 33.6, "Undecided": 4.0 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2992787797, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "nm", "state": "New Mexico", "geography": "state", "usps": "NM", "n_questions": 3, "panel": { "panel_label": "New Mexico statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "e2026_gov_nm", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_nm", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of New Mexico were held today, would you vote for Democrat Deb Haaland or Republican Gregg Hull?", "options": [ "Deb Haaland", "Gregg Hull", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "NM", "label": "New Mexico" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in New Mexico (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_nm", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Deb Haaland": 55.3, "Gregg Hull": 40.3, "Undecided": 4.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3700403608, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_nm02", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_nm02", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Gabe Vasquez or Republican Greg Cunningham?", "options": [ "Gabe Vasquez", "Greg Cunningham", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "NM", "label": "New Mexico" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in NM 2nd CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_lean_d", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_nm02", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Gabe Vasquez": 51.6, "Greg Cunningham": 42.1, "Undecided": 6.3 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2657538086, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_sen_nm", "prediction_id": "e2026_sen_nm", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate in New Mexico were held today, would you vote for Democrat Ben Ray Luján or Republican Larry Marker?", "options": [ "Ben Ray Luján", "Larry Marker", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "NM", "label": "New Mexico" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in New Mexico (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "e2026_sen_nm", "kill_if": "Luján or Marker not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Ben Ray Luján": 53.0, "Larry Marker": 40.3, "Undecided": 6.7 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3110231130, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "nv", "state": "Nevada", "geography": "state", "usps": "NV", "n_questions": 4, "panel": { "panel_label": "Nevada statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_nv_q6_abortion", "prediction_id": "b_nv_q6_abortion", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Nevada general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Question 6, which would provide a state constitutional right to abortion before fetal viability?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "NV", "label": "Nevada" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Nevada", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_nv_q6_abortion", "kill_if": "Kill if NV SoS does not list this amendment on the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 52.2, "No": 47.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 424124770, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_nv_q7_voter_id", "prediction_id": "b_nv_q7_voter_id", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Nevada general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Question 7, which would require photo ID to vote in person or the last four digits of a driver's license or Social Security number to vote by mail?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "NV", "label": "Nevada" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Nevada", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_nv_q7_voter_id", "kill_if": "Kill if NV SoS does not list this measure on the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 83.2, "No": 16.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 1804797519, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "e2026_gov_nv", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_nv", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Nevada were held today, would you vote for Democrat Aaron Ford or Republican Joe Lombardo?", "options": [ "Aaron Ford", "Joe Lombardo", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "NV", "label": "Nevada" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Nevada (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_nv", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Aaron Ford": 42.2, "Joe Lombardo": 51.6, "Undecided": 6.1 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 4119844083, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_nv03", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_nv03", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Nevada's 3rd Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Susie Lee or Republican Marty O'Donnell?", "options": [ "Susie Lee", "Marty O'Donnell", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "NV", "label": "Nevada" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in NV 3rd CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_lean_d", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_nv03", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Susie Lee": 46.2, "Marty O'Donnell": 46.9, "Undecided": 6.9 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2741449088, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "ny", "state": "New York", "geography": "state", "usps": "NY", "n_questions": 4, "panel": { "panel_label": "New York statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "e2026_gov_ny", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_ny", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of New York were held today, would you vote for Democrat Kathy Hochul or Republican Bruce Blakeman?", "options": [ "Kathy Hochul", "Bruce Blakeman", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "NY", "label": "New York" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in New York (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_ny", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Kathy Hochul": 58.5, "Bruce Blakeman": 33.1, "Undecided": 8.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 4035955988, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_ny03", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_ny03", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in New York's 3rd Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Tom Suozzi or Republican Michael LiPetri Jr.?", "options": [ "Tom Suozzi", "Michael LiPetri Jr.", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "NY", "label": "New York" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in NY 3rd CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_lean_d", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_ny03", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Tom Suozzi": 60.5, "Michael LiPetri Jr.": 33.6, "Undecided": 5.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 172444751, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_ny04", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_ny04", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in New York's 4th Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Laura Gillen or Republican Jeanine Driscoll?", "options": [ "Laura Gillen", "Jeanine Driscoll", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "NY", "label": "New York" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in NY 4th CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_lean_d", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_ny04", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Laura Gillen": 59.3, "Jeanine Driscoll": 33.6, "Undecided": 7.1 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 88556656, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_ny17", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_ny17", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in New York's 17th Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Cait Conley or Republican Michael Lawler?", "options": [ "Cait Conley", "Michael Lawler", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "NY", "label": "New York" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in NY 17th CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_toss_up", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_ny17", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Cait Conley": 56.4, "Michael Lawler": 37.1, "Undecided": 6.5 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 105187180, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "oh", "state": "Ohio", "geography": "state", "usps": "OH", "n_questions": 6, "panel": { "panel_label": "Ohio statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_oh_i3_voter_id", "prediction_id": "b_oh_i3_voter_id", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Ohio general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Issue 3, which would require photo identification to vote?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "OH", "label": "Ohio" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Ohio", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_oh_i3_voter_id", "kill_if": "Kill if Ohio SoS does not list this amendment on the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 86.3, "No": 13.7 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 666477078, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "e2026_gov_oh", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_oh", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Ohio were held today, would you vote for Democrat Amy Acton or Republican Vivek Ramaswamy?", "options": [ "Amy Acton", "Vivek Ramaswamy", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "OH", "label": "Ohio" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Ohio (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_oh", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Amy Acton": 43.7, "Vivek Ramaswamy": 45.7, "Undecided": 10.6 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 93465786, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_oh01", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_oh01", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Ohio's 1st Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Greg Landsman or Republican Eric Conroy?", "options": [ "Greg Landsman", "Eric Conroy", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "OH", "label": "Ohio" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in OH 1st CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_lean_d", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_oh01", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Greg Landsman": 49.6, "Eric Conroy": 41.3, "Undecided": 9.0 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 1866001375, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_oh07", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_oh07", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Ohio's 7th Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Brian Poindexter or Republican Max Miller?", "options": [ "Brian Poindexter", "Max Miller", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "OH", "label": "Ohio" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in OH 7th CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_toss_up", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_oh07", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Brian Poindexter": 39.4, "Max Miller": 52.2, "Undecided": 8.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 1765335661, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_oh09", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_oh09", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Ohio's 9th Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Marcy Kaptur or Republican Derek Merrin?", "options": [ "Marcy Kaptur", "Derek Merrin", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "OH", "label": "Ohio" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in OH 9th CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_toss_up", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_oh09", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Marcy Kaptur": 49.7, "Derek Merrin": 46.0, "Undecided": 4.3 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 1731780423, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "oh_senate_matchup_2026", "prediction_id": "oh_senate_matchup_2026", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, whom would you support?", "options": [ "Sherrod Brown (D)", "Jon Husted (R)", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "OH", "label": "Ohio" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Ohio (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate_special", "unique_stem": "oh_senate_matchup_2026", "kill_if": "Brown or Husted not on the Nov 3 ballot", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Sherrod Brown (D)": 44.1, "Jon Husted (R)": 41.0, "Undecided": 14.9 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2428826126, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Question text previously frozen on /predictions (Issue 03 Senate); the November 2026 certified result does not yet exist. Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "ok", "state": "Oklahoma", "geography": "state", "usps": "OK", "n_questions": 2, "panel": { "panel_label": "Oklahoma statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "e2026_gov_ok", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_ok", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Oklahoma were held today, would you vote for Democrat Cyndi Munson or Republican Mike Mazzei?", "options": [ "Cyndi Munson", "Mike Mazzei", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "OK", "label": "Oklahoma" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Oklahoma (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_ok", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Cyndi Munson": 21.1, "Mike Mazzei": 72.1, "Undecided": 6.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 43132929, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_sen_ok", "prediction_id": "e2026_sen_ok", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate in Oklahoma were held today, would you vote for Democrat N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas or Republican Kevin Hern?", "options": [ "N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas", "Kevin Hern", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "OK", "label": "Oklahoma" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Oklahoma (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "e2026_sen_ok", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas": 19.3, "Kevin Hern": 75.7, "Undecided": 5.0 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2607152823, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "or", "state": "Oregon", "geography": "state", "usps": "OR", "n_questions": 2, "panel": { "panel_label": "Oregon statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "e2026_gov_or", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_or", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Oregon were held today, would you vote for Democrat Tina Kotek or Republican Christine Drazan?", "options": [ "Tina Kotek", "Christine Drazan", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "OR", "label": "Oregon" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Oregon (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_or", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Tina Kotek": 52.7, "Christine Drazan": 42.3, "Undecided": 4.9 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 4220656892, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_sen_or", "prediction_id": "e2026_sen_or", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Jeff Merkley or Republican David Brock Smith?", "options": [ "Jeff Merkley", "David Brock Smith", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "OR", "label": "Oregon" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Oregon (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "e2026_sen_or", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Jeff Merkley": 58.5, "David Brock Smith": 36.6, "Undecided": 4.9 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3026593298, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "pa", "state": "Pennsylvania", "geography": "state", "usps": "PA", "n_questions": 4, "panel": { "panel_label": "Pennsylvania statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "e2026_gov_pa", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_pa", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Pennsylvania were held today, would you vote for Democrat Josh Shapiro or Republican Stacy Garrity?", "options": [ "Josh Shapiro", "Stacy Garrity", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "PA", "label": "Pennsylvania" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Pennsylvania (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_pa", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Josh Shapiro": 49.9, "Stacy Garrity": 46.0, "Undecided": 4.1 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3972391106, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_pa07", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_pa07", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Bob Brooks or Republican Ryan Mackenzie?", "options": [ "Bob Brooks", "Ryan Mackenzie", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "PA", "label": "Pennsylvania" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in PA 7th CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_toss_up", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_pa07", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Bob Brooks": 45.5, "Ryan Mackenzie": 47.3, "Undecided": 7.1 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 4079160661, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_pa08", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_pa08", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Paige Cognetti or Republican Rob Bresnahan?", "options": [ "Paige Cognetti", "Rob Bresnahan", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "PA", "label": "Pennsylvania" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in PA 8th CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_toss_up", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_pa08", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Paige Cognetti": 48.1, "Rob Bresnahan": 47.5, "Undecided": 4.5 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 35857650, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_pa10", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_pa10", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Janelle Stelson or Republican Scott Perry?", "options": [ "Janelle Stelson", "Scott Perry", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "PA", "label": "Pennsylvania" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in PA 10th CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_toss_up", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_pa10", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Janelle Stelson": 44.2, "Scott Perry": 51.4, "Undecided": 4.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 4095791185, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "sc", "state": "South Carolina", "geography": "state", "usps": "SC", "n_questions": 2, "panel": { "panel_label": "South Carolina statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "e2026_gov_sc", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_sc", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of South Carolina were held today, would you vote for Democrat Jermaine Johnson or Republican Alan Wilson?", "options": [ "Jermaine Johnson", "Alan Wilson", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "SC", "label": "South Carolina" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in South Carolina (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_sc", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Jermaine Johnson": 37.5, "Alan Wilson": 55.1, "Undecided": 7.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 46384333, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_sen_sc", "prediction_id": "e2026_sen_sc", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Annie Andrews or Republican Darline Graham?", "options": [ "Annie Andrews", "Darline Graham", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "SC", "label": "South Carolina" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in South Carolina (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "e2026_sen_sc", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Annie Andrews": 38.4, "Darline Graham": 52.4, "Undecided": 9.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3139402131, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "sd", "state": "South Dakota", "geography": "state", "usps": "SD", "n_questions": 4, "panel": { "panel_label": "South Dakota statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_sd_j_citizenship", "prediction_id": "b_sd_j_citizenship", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 South Dakota general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Constitutional Amendment J, which would disqualify any individual who is not a U.S. citizen from voting in any election?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "SD", "label": "South Dakota" }, "universe": "Likely voters, South Dakota", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_sd_j_citizenship", "kill_if": "Kill if SD SoS removes Amendment J from the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 72.2, "No": 27.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 4263435510, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_sd_l_supermajority", "prediction_id": "b_sd_l_supermajority", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 South Dakota general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Constitutional Amendment L, which would require a 60 percent supermajority of voters to approve constitutional amendments?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "SD", "label": "South Dakota" }, "universe": "Likely voters, South Dakota", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_sd_l_supermajority", "kill_if": "Kill if SD SoS removes Amendment L from the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 64.5, "No": 35.5 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3417282622, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "e2026_gov_sd", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_sd", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of South Dakota were held today, would you vote for Democrat Dan Ahlers or Republican Larry Rhoden?", "options": [ "Dan Ahlers", "Larry Rhoden", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "SD", "label": "South Dakota" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in South Dakota (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_sd", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Dan Ahlers": 25.6, "Larry Rhoden": 68.8, "Undecided": 5.6 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 163827666, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_sen_sd", "prediction_id": "e2026_sen_sd", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate in South Dakota were held today, would you vote for independent Brian Bengs or Republican Mike Rounds?", "options": [ "Brian Bengs", "Mike Rounds", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "SD", "label": "South Dakota" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in South Dakota (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "e2026_sen_sd", "kill_if": "Bengs or Rounds not on the Nov 3 ballot, or a replacement Democrat is the first-place finisher", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Brian Bengs": 15.9, "Mike Rounds": 80.9, "Undecided": 3.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3189734988, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "tn", "state": "Tennessee", "geography": "state", "usps": "TN", "n_questions": 3, "panel": { "panel_label": "Tennessee statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_tn_amd2_property_tax", "prediction_id": "b_tn_amd2_property_tax", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Tennessee general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Amendment 2, which would prohibit the legislature from enacting taxes on property?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "TN", "label": "Tennessee" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Tennessee", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_tn_amd2_property_tax", "kill_if": "Kill if TN SoS does not list Amendment 2 on the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 57.5, "No": 42.5 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3529865190, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "e2026_gov_tn", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_tn", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Tennessee were held today, would you vote for Democrat Jerri Green or Republican Marsha Blackburn?", "options": [ "Jerri Green", "Marsha Blackburn", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "TN", "label": "Tennessee" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Tennessee (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_tn", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Jerri Green": 30.0, "Marsha Blackburn": 63.6, "Undecided": 6.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 4258302177, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_sen_tn", "prediction_id": "e2026_sen_tn", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Marquita Bradshaw or Republican Bill Hagerty?", "options": [ "Marquita Bradshaw", "Bill Hagerty", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "TN", "label": "Tennessee" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Tennessee (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "e2026_sen_tn", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Marquita Bradshaw": 32.4, "Bill Hagerty": 62.2, "Undecided": 5.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2518880491, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "tx", "state": "Texas", "geography": "state", "usps": "TX", "n_questions": 5, "panel": { "panel_label": "Texas statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "e2026_gov_tx", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_tx", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Texas were held today, would you vote for Democrat Gina Hinojosa or Republican Greg Abbott?", "options": [ "Gina Hinojosa", "Greg Abbott", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "TX", "label": "Texas" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Texas (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_tx", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Gina Hinojosa": 37.8, "Greg Abbott": 57.5, "Undecided": 4.7 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3956305035, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_tx15", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_tx15", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Texas's 15th Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Bobby Pulido or Republican Monica De La Cruz?", "options": [ "Bobby Pulido", "Monica De La Cruz", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "TX", "label": "Texas" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in TX 15th CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_lean_r", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_tx15", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Bobby Pulido": 35.0, "Monica De La Cruz": 60.2, "Undecided": 4.8 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2384563733, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_tx28", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_tx28", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Texas's 28th Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Henry Cuellar or Republican Tano Tijerina?", "options": [ "Henry Cuellar", "Tano Tijerina", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "TX", "label": "Texas" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in TX 28th CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_lean_d", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_tx28", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Henry Cuellar": 42.8, "Tano Tijerina": 53.1, "Undecided": 4.1 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 421141025, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_tx34", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_tx34", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Texas's 34th Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Vicente Gonzalez or Republican Eric Flores?", "options": [ "Vicente Gonzalez", "Eric Flores", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "TX", "label": "Texas" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in TX 34th CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_toss_up", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_tx34", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Vicente Gonzalez": 48.3, "Eric Flores": 48.1, "Undecided": 3.6 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 589064310, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "tx_senate_matchup_2026", "prediction_id": "tx_senate_matchup_2026", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat James Talarico or Republican Ken Paxton?", "options": [ "James Talarico", "Ken Paxton", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "TX", "label": "Texas" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Texas (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "tx_senate_matchup_2026", "kill_if": "Talarico or Paxton not on the Nov 3 ballot", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "James Talarico": 38.5, "Ken Paxton": 57.3, "Undecided": 4.1 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 72219663, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Question text previously frozen on /predictions (Issue 03 Senate); the November 2026 certified result does not yet exist. Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "ut", "state": "Utah", "geography": "state", "usps": "UT", "n_questions": 2, "panel": { "panel_label": "Utah statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_ut_60_tax_initiatives", "prediction_id": "b_ut_60_tax_initiatives", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Utah general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on the amendment requiring a 60 percent voter supermajority for citizen-initiated measures that create a new tax, increase a tax rate, or involve a property tax?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "UT", "label": "Utah" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Utah", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_ut_60_tax_initiatives", "kill_if": "Kill if Utah Lt. Gov. elections office does not list it on the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 42.8, "No": 57.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2413799525, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_ut_sc_pohlman", "prediction_id": "b_ut_sc_pohlman", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Utah Supreme Court retention election were held today, would you vote to retain or not retain Justice Jill Pohlman?", "options": [ "Retain", "Do not retain" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "UT", "label": "Utah" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Utah", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified retain vs do-not-retain. Simple majority retains.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Retain share of Retain+Do-not-retain (or Yes+No retain language). Winner is Retain if Retain > 50% of those votes (NM 57% threshold does not apply to these rows). Tie is a miss.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_ut_sc_pohlman", "kill_if": "Kill if Pohlman resigns or the retention question is removed.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Retain": 68.4, "Do not retain": 31.6 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 1353643199, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified retain vs do-not-retain. Simple majority retains." } ] }, { "market_id": "va", "state": "Virginia", "geography": "state", "usps": "VA", "n_questions": 6, "panel": { "panel_label": "Virginia statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_va_q1_abortion", "prediction_id": "b_va_q1_abortion", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Virginia general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Question 1, which would provide a state constitutional right to reproductive freedom, defined as the right to make and effectuate one's own decisions about all matters related to one's pregnancy?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "VA", "label": "Virginia" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Virginia", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_va_q1_abortion", "kill_if": "Kill if VA Dept. of Elections removes Question 1 from the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 61.5, "No": 38.5 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2476213284, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_va_q2_marriage", "prediction_id": "b_va_q2_marriage", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Virginia general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Question 2, which would repeal the one-man-one-woman marriage provision and prohibit denial of a marriage license to two adults based on sex, gender, or race?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "VA", "label": "Virginia" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Virginia", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_va_q2_marriage", "kill_if": "Kill if VA Dept. of Elections removes Question 2 from the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 45.5, "No": 54.5 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 1125291529, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_va_q3_felony_vote", "prediction_id": "b_va_q3_felony_vote", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Virginia general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Question 3, which would restore voting rights to people convicted of felonies upon release from incarceration?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "VA", "label": "Virginia" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Virginia", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_va_q3_felony_vote", "kill_if": "Kill if VA Dept. of Elections removes Question 3 from the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 60.6, "No": 39.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2069646966, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "e2026_house_va01", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_va01", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Virginia's 1st Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Shannon Taylor or Republican Rob Wittman?", "options": [ "Shannon Taylor", "Rob Wittman", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "VA", "label": "Virginia" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in VA 1st CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_lean_r", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_va01", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Shannon Taylor": 43.0, "Rob Wittman": 46.7, "Undecided": 10.3 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 1820729257, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_va02", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_va02", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Virginia's 2nd Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Elaine Luria or Republican Jennifer Kiggans?", "options": [ "Elaine Luria", "Jennifer Kiggans", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "VA", "label": "Virginia" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in VA 2nd CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_toss_up", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_va02", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Elaine Luria": 46.1, "Jennifer Kiggans": 42.8, "Undecided": 11.1 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 1871062114, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_sen_va", "prediction_id": "e2026_sen_va", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Mark Warner or Republican Bert Mizusawa?", "options": [ "Mark Warner", "Bert Mizusawa", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "VA", "label": "Virginia" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Virginia (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "e2026_sen_va", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Mark Warner": 57.4, "Bert Mizusawa": 32.6, "Undecided": 10.0 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2905059918, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "vt", "state": "Vermont", "geography": "state", "usps": "VT", "n_questions": 2, "panel": { "panel_label": "Vermont statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_vt_p4_equality", "prediction_id": "b_vt_p4_equality", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Vermont general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Proposal 4, which would prohibit denial of rights based on race, ethnicity, sex, religion, disability, sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, or national origin?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "VT", "label": "Vermont" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Vermont", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_vt_p4_equality", "kill_if": "Kill if Vermont SoS does not list Proposal 4 on the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 71.5, "No": 28.5 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 1334868807, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "e2026_gov_vt", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_vt", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Vermont were held today, would you vote for Democrat Amanda Janoo or Republican Phil Scott?", "options": [ "Amanda Janoo", "Phil Scott", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "VT", "label": "Vermont" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Vermont (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_vt", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Amanda Janoo": 52.2, "Phil Scott": 44.3, "Undecided": 3.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3821789893, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "wa", "state": "Washington", "geography": "state", "usps": "WA", "n_questions": 3, "panel": { "panel_label": "Washington statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_wa_income_tax_repeal", "prediction_id": "b_wa_income_tax_repeal", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Washington general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on the initiative to repeal the tax on household income over $1 million and prohibit state and local taxes on individual income?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "WA", "label": "Washington" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Washington", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_wa_income_tax_repeal", "kill_if": "Kill if WA SoS does not list this initiative on the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 24.8, "No": 75.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 787931349, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_wa_sports_sex", "prediction_id": "b_wa_sports_sex", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Washington general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on the initiative requiring school and voluntary nonprofit athletics to prohibit biologically male students from competing with and against biologically female students?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "WA", "label": "Washington" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Washington", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_wa_sports_sex", "kill_if": "Kill if WA SoS does not list this initiative on the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 49.7, "No": 50.3 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3773257788, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "e2026_house_wa03", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_wa03", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Washington's 3rd Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez or Republican John Braun?", "options": [ "Marie Gluesenkamp Perez", "John Braun", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "WA", "label": "Washington" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in WA 3rd CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_toss_up", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_wa03", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Marie Gluesenkamp Perez": 52.8, "John Braun": 42.7, "Undecided": 4.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 1070758596, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "wi", "state": "Wisconsin", "geography": "state", "usps": "WI", "n_questions": 4, "panel": { "panel_label": "Wisconsin statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_wi_aa_ban", "prediction_id": "b_wi_aa_ban", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Wisconsin general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on the amendment prohibiting government from discriminating or granting preferential treatment based on race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "WI", "label": "Wisconsin" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Wisconsin", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_wi_aa_ban", "kill_if": "Kill if Wisconsin Elections Commission does not list it on the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 46.4, "No": 53.6 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 1343831344, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_wi_worship", "prediction_id": "b_wi_worship", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Wisconsin general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on the amendment prohibiting the government from closing gatherings at places of worship during declared emergencies, including public-health emergencies?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "WI", "label": "Wisconsin" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Wisconsin", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_wi_worship", "kill_if": "Kill if WEC does not list it on the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 70.6, "No": 29.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 528085064, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "e2026_gov_wi", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_wi", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Wisconsin were held today, would you vote for Democrat David Crowley or Republican Tom Tiffany?", "options": [ "David Crowley", "Tom Tiffany", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "WI", "label": "Wisconsin" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Wisconsin (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_wi", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "David Crowley": 45.9, "Tom Tiffany": 48.1, "Undecided": 6.0 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3838714607, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_house_wi03", "prediction_id": "e2026_house_wi03", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. House in Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District were held today, would you vote for Democrat Rebecca Cooke or Republican Derrick Van Orden?", "options": [ "Rebecca Cooke", "Derrick Van Orden", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "WI", "label": "Wisconsin" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in WI 3rd CD (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "house_toss_up", "unique_stem": "e2026_house_wi03", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Rebecca Cooke": 44.3, "Derrick Van Orden": 51.5, "Undecided": 4.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3065588924, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "wv", "state": "West Virginia", "geography": "state", "usps": "WV", "n_questions": 2, "panel": { "panel_label": "West Virginia statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_wv_citizenship", "prediction_id": "b_wv_citizenship", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 West Virginia general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on the Citizenship Voting Requirement Amendment, which would state that only citizens may vote in elections?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "WV", "label": "West Virginia" }, "universe": "Likely voters, West Virginia", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_wv_citizenship", "kill_if": "Kill if WV SoS does not list it on the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 93.3, "No": 6.7 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 1655597351, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "e2026_sen_wv", "prediction_id": "e2026_sen_wv", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Rachel Fetty Anderson or Republican Shelley Moore Capito?", "options": [ "Rachel Fetty Anderson", "Shelley Moore Capito", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "WV", "label": "West Virginia" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in West Virginia (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "e2026_sen_wv", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Rachel Fetty Anderson": 20.1, "Shelley Moore Capito": 75.7, "Undecided": 4.2 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2687097966, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] }, { "market_id": "wy", "state": "Wyoming", "geography": "state", "usps": "WY", "n_questions": 4, "panel": { "panel_label": "Wyoming statewide PUMS panel, DC omitted", "sample_n": 1000, "sampling": "simple random sample, seed=20260901" }, "questions": [ { "id": "b_wy_i1_homestead", "prediction_id": "b_wy_i1_homestead", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Wyoming general election were held today, would you vote Yes or No on Initiative 1, which would create a homeowner property-tax exemption equal to 50 percent of a primary residence's assessed value?", "options": [ "Yes", "No" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "WY", "label": "Wyoming" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Wyoming", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Yes share of Yes+No. Ignore blanks/undervotes. Winner is Yes if Yes > No; else No. Ties (exactly 50.000%) are a miss for both calls.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_wy_i1_homestead", "kill_if": "Kill if Wyoming SoS removes Initiative 1 from the Nov 3 ballot.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Yes": 78.4, "No": 21.6 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 3684780105, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Business decision is ADOPT vs REJECT under the state's legal threshold. Simple majority of Yes+No unless a row notes a supermajority. Predict Yes if the measure is adopted; No if rejected." }, { "id": "b_wy_sc_jarosh", "prediction_id": "b_wy_sc_jarosh", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the November 3, 2026 Wyoming Supreme Court retention election were held today, would you vote to retain or not retain Justice Robert Jarosh?", "options": [ "Retain", "Do not retain" ], "question_type": "politics_ballot", "category": "politics_ballot", "bucket": "ballots_statewide", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "two_way", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "WY", "label": "Wyoming" }, "universe": "Likely voters, Wyoming", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-07", "gt_source": { "name": "State Secretary of State / elections board certified canvass; AP election night call as interim only", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/2026_ballot_measures" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_ballot", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified retain vs do-not-retain. Simple majority retains.", "winner_call_definition": "Certified Retain share of Retain+Do-not-retain (or Yes+No retain language). Winner is Retain if Retain > 50% of those votes (NM 57% threshold does not apply to these rows). Tie is a miss.", "series_id": "certified", "unique_stem": "b_wy_sc_jarosh", "kill_if": "Kill if Jarosh leaves the court or the retention question is removed.", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Retain": 71.4, "Do not retain": 28.6 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 1479870124, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified retain vs do-not-retain. Simple majority retains." }, { "id": "e2026_gov_wy", "prediction_id": "e2026_gov_wy", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for Governor of Wyoming were held today, would you vote for Democrat Kenneth Casner or Republican Eric Barlow?", "options": [ "Kenneth Casner", "Eric Barlow", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "WY", "label": "Wyoming" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Wyoming (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 200, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "governor", "unique_stem": "e2026_gov_wy", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "Kenneth Casner": 17.2, "Eric Barlow": 75.8, "Undecided": 7.1 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 4107156511, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." }, { "id": "e2026_sen_wy", "prediction_id": "e2026_sen_wy", "benchmark_qid": null, "question": "If the 2026 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat James Byrd or Republican Harriet Hageman?", "options": [ "James Byrd", "Harriet Hageman", "Undecided" ], "question_type": "politics_election", "category": "politics_election", "bucket": "elections", "mode": "policy", "call_type": "election_twoway", "geography": { "kind": "state", "state": "WY", "label": "Wyoming" }, "universe": "November 2026 general-election voters in Wyoming (actual electorate)", "n": 1000, "as_of_date": "2026-09-01", "resolve_by": "2027-01-08", "gt_source": { "name": "State board / secretary of state certified results; AP/DDHQ unofficial if canvass slips past grade week", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2026" }, "gt_source_type": "certified_election", "gt_url_meta": { "url_type": "series", "url_http_status": 202, "url_verified_at": "2026-09-01" }, "resolve_rule": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips.", "winner_call_definition": "Winner call: named candidate with more certified votes (RCV final round in AK/ME if used; GA Dec 1 runoff if no majority). Undecided is not a winner. MAE secondary: two-way share among the two named major options after dropping Undecided and others.", "series_id": "senate", "unique_stem": "e2026_sen_wy", "kill_if": "Named major-party (or named independent) nominee is not on the Nov 3 ballot, or race is cancelled", "in_field_watch": false, "lewis_distribution": { "n": 1000, "n_ok": 1000, "coverage": 1.0, "raw_shares_pct": { "James Byrd": 11.5, "Harriet Hageman": 84.1, "Undecided": 4.4 }, "calibrated_shares_pct": null, "model": "lewis-v17", "calibrator": "identity", "sample_seed": 2838096537, "aggregation": "verbalized elicitation; probability floor 0.03; calibrator identity; n=1000; seed 20260901" }, "fielding_pending": false, "human_benchmark_gt": null, "review_notes": "Certified Nov 3 2026 general (or GA Dec 1 runoff / AK-ME RCV final). Grade first week of Jan 2027 on state canvass or AP/DDHQ if canvass slips." } ] } ] }