{
  "issue": "06",
  "status": "Pre-registered. Resolves Monday, September 21, 2026.",
  "series": "NY Fed SCE Household Spending Survey, median reported year-over-year change in monthly nominal household spending (F1)",
  "wave": "August 2026",
  "graded_measure": "F1",
  "forecast": 4.9,
  "forecast_full": 4.9033160633333335,
  "companion_raw": 4.2,
  "companion_raw_full": 4.162444,
  "companion_raw_meaning": "Panel median before calibration. Published for the record. Not graded.",
  "last_print": 4.8,
  "last_print_full": 4.780695438,
  "last_print_wave": "April 2026",
  "official_series_f1": [
    { "wave": "April 2025", "value": 4.497980595 },
    { "wave": "August 2025", "value": 4.133610249 },
    { "wave": "December 2025", "value": 4.877758503 },
    { "wave": "April 2026", "value": 4.780695438 }
  ],
  "secondary_not_graded": {
    "note": "Frozen with the headline at the freeze time below. Not graded. Last-print values are the April 2026 wave from NY Fed chart data.",
    "expected_change_next_12_months_median_pct": {
      "overall": { "forecast": 4.841253691333334, "last_print": 3.416846037 },
      "essential": { "forecast": 5.770199664, "last_print": 5.080705643 },
      "non_essential": { "forecast": 1.6519130406666667, "last_print": 1.838682294 }
    },
    "expected_change_by_category_next_12_months_median_pct": {
      "housing": { "forecast": 3.336092159333333, "last_print": 3.062762022 },
      "utilities": { "forecast": 4.703236026333333, "last_print": 4.79770422 },
      "food": { "forecast": 5.529578781666666, "last_print": 5.624959469 },
      "clothing": { "forecast": 2.63733884, "last_print": 2.925820589 },
      "transportation": { "forecast": 4.798321642, "last_print": 5.386204243 },
      "medical_care": { "forecast": 4.80539746, "last_print": 4.856134415 },
      "recreation": { "forecast": 2.384822465666667, "last_print": 2.825891018 },
      "education": { "forecast": 0.19942927929999998, "last_print": 0.1516870707 }
    },
    "large_purchase_next_4_months_average_pct_chance": {
      "vehicles": { "forecast": 9.830087591333333, "last_print": 9.620981216 },
      "vacations": { "forecast": 28.530782066666667, "last_print": 30.9973278 }
    }
  },
  "n": 1000,
  "frame": "Census-grounded synthetic U.S. household heads. No humans were interviewed.",
  "calibration": "Lewsearch production calibration step, frozen before this forecast and not modified after the number was seen. Recipe not published.",
  "calibration_inputs": "Earlier published waves of this series were available to the calibration step. The August 2026 wave was not.",
  "win": {
    "abs_pp": 0.4,
    "and_closer_than_last_print": true,
    "tie_is_not_closer": true,
    "resolves": "2026-09-21",
    "worked_examples": { "4.8": "miss", "5.0": "win", "5.4": "miss" }
  },
  "source": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/household-spending",
  "hashes": {
    "roster_sha256": "e93c7dab33c809782237efd8eb91cf865df8da2b8c726a4d647a29d9cf6b2857",
    "registration_sha256": "eb9dca8a2a58b18edb883551a69c16ce61a88900787b4049a41f8919b07906b6",
    "august_2026_cells_sha256": "323758e83298aa73b1c3b5c410e4bc8a9b471a54cd574761e6cfbdeff55698f2",
    "freeze_utc": "2026-09-15T04:40:34.047075+00:00"
  },
  "revisions": [
    {
      "date": "2026-09-15",
      "note": "Page and JSON revised before the print: official series, ungraded secondary table, calibration_inputs, and worked WIN examples added; copy tightened. Forecast, last print, panel reading, and WIN rule unchanged."
    }
  ]
}