{
 "issue": "07",
 "status": "Pre-registered. Resolves when Deloitte publishes its 2026 holiday retail survey, expected mid-October 2026.",
 "series": "Deloitte holiday retail survey: headline average expected holiday spending per shopper",
 "edition": "2026",
 "graded_measure": "Deloitte 2026 headline average expected holiday spending",
 "forecast": 1589,
 "forecast_full": 1589.2,
 "forecast_ci95": [
  1560,
  1619
 ],
 "companion_raw": 1628,
 "companion_raw_meaning": "The panel's own 2026 average in dollars. Published for the record. Not graded.",
 "last_print": 1595,
 "last_print_edition": "2025",
 "last_print_released": "2025-10-15",
 "prior_prints": {
  "2023": 1652,
  "2024": 1778,
  "2025": 1595
 },
 "n": 2000,
 "kish_effective_n": 1110,
 "frame": "Simulated U.S. adults from Lewsearch's production agent pool, raked to national Census ACS targets on age, gender, race and ethnicity, education, income (in the four bands the agents carry) and region, and to a national party identification target. No humans were interviewed.",
 "engine": "Lewis, Lewsearch's production model. Verbalized scoring; answer order shuffled for every respondent.",
 "question": {
  "text": "In total, how much do you expect to spend during the upcoming year-end holiday season? Include gifts, holiday food and entertaining, decorations, clothing and other items for yourself or your home, and holiday experiences such as travel and going out.",
  "options": [
   "Nothing",
   "Less than $250",
   "$250 to $499",
   "$500 to $999",
   "$1,000 to $1,499",
   "$1,500 to $2,499",
   "$2,500 to $3,999",
   "$4,000 or more"
  ],
  "dollar_midpoints": [
   0,
   125,
   375,
   750,
   1250,
   2000,
   3250,
   5500
  ]
 },
 "design": {
  "runs": "The same 2,000 respondents answered the same question three times, each run dated September 2 of 2024, 2025 and 2026, with that year's economic background.",
  "context_template": "One four-fact template per year: July CPI 12-month change, July unemployment rate, EIA regular gasoline in the fourth week of August, final August University of Michigan sentiment.",
  "contexts": {
   "2024": "Economic background: The government's latest report showed consumer prices up 2.9 percent from a year earlier. The unemployment rate was 4.3 percent. Regular gasoline averaged about $3.31 a gallon nationally. The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment stood at 67.9.",
   "2025": "Economic background: The government's latest report showed consumer prices up 2.7 percent from a year earlier. The unemployment rate was 4.2 percent. Regular gasoline averaged about $3.15 a gallon nationally. The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment stood at 58.2.",
   "2026": "Economic background: The government's latest report showed consumer prices up 3.4 percent from a year earlier. The unemployment rate was 4.1 percent. Regular gasoline averaged about $4.09 a gallon nationally. The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment stood at 51.7."
  },
  "context_sources": {
   "cpi_12mo_july": {
    "2024": "BLS, released Aug 14, 2024",
    "2025": "BLS, released Aug 12, 2025",
    "2026": "BLS, released Aug 12, 2026"
   },
   "unemployment_july": {
    "2024": "BLS, released Aug 2, 2024",
    "2025": "BLS, released Aug 1, 2025 (as first published)",
    "2026": "BLS, released Aug 7, 2026"
   },
   "gasoline_regular_us": {
    "2024": "EIA weekly, Aug 26, 2024: 3.313",
    "2025": "EIA weekly, Aug 25, 2025: 3.147",
    "2026": "EIA weekly, Aug 24, 2026: 4.085"
   },
   "michigan_sentiment_final_august": {
    "2024": "67.9",
    "2025": "58.2",
    "2026": "51.7"
   }
  }
 },
 "panel_mean": {
  "definition": "M_Y = weighted mean over respondents of sum_k soft_k * midpoint_k for H1_Y, midpoints [0, 125, 375, 750, 1250, 2000, 3250, 5500], using raw weighted soft answers (no display floor).",
  "by_run": {
   "2024": {
    "mean": 1638.69,
    "se": 35.8
   },
   "2025": {
    "mean": 1633.58,
    "se": 34.6
   },
   "2026": {
    "mean": 1627.65,
    "se": 34.36
   }
  }
 },
 "recipe": "forecast = 1595 * (M_2026 / M_2025), rounded to the nearest dollar.",
 "ratio_2026_over_2025": 0.99636,
 "ratio_se": 0.00941,
 "win": {
  "band_dollars": 80,
  "and_closer_than_last_print": true,
  "tie_is_not_closer": true,
  "text": "WIN if Deloitte's 2026 headline average lands within $80 of the forecast and is closer to the forecast than to $1,595.",
  "winning_range_whole_dollars": [
   1509,
   1591
  ],
  "worked_examples": {
   "1560": "win",
   "1600": "miss",
   "1500": "miss"
  },
  "resolves": "Deloitte 2026 holiday retail survey release, expected mid-October 2026",
  "ungradeable_if_unpublished_by": "2026-11-15"
 },
 "backtest": {
  "recipe": "1778 * (M_2025 / M_2024)",
  "implied_2025": 1772,
  "actual_2025": 1595,
  "error_dollars": 177,
  "panel_change_pct": -0.3,
  "deloitte_change_pct": -10.3
 },
 "secondary_not_graded": {
  "H3_expect_higher_prices": {
   "question": "Compared with last year's holiday season, do you expect prices for holiday items to be higher, lower, or about the same?",
   "options": [
    "Higher",
    "About the same",
    "Lower"
   ],
   "panel_share_higher_pct": {
    "2024": 85.1,
    "2025": 78.5,
    "2026": 84.8
   },
   "deloitte_2025_pct": 77,
   "forecast_2026_pct": 83.3,
   "backtest_2025_pct": 62.4,
   "recipe": "77 + (P_2026 - P_2025), where P_Y is the weighted share answering Higher on H3_Y. Deloitte 2025: 77% expect higher prices on holiday items."
  },
  "H4_expect_economy_weaker": {
   "question": "Looking ahead to 2027, do you expect the U.S. economy to be stronger, weaker, or about the same as it is now?",
   "options": [
    "Stronger",
    "About the same",
    "Weaker"
   ],
   "panel_share_weaker_pct": {
    "2024": 62.2,
    "2025": 61.2,
    "2026": 62.7
   },
   "deloitte_2025_pct": 57,
   "forecast_2026_pct": 58.5,
   "backtest_2025_pct": 29.0,
   "recipe": "57 + (P_2026 - P_2025), where P_Y is the weighted share answering Weaker on H4_Y. Deloitte 2025: 57% expect the economy to weaken in 2026."
  },
  "H2_spend_vs_last_year": {
   "question": "Compared with last year's holiday season, do you expect to spend more, less, or about the same this holiday season?",
   "options": [
    "More",
    "About the same",
    "Less"
   ],
   "panel_distribution_pct": {
    "2024": [
     27.3,
     26.8,
     45.8
    ],
    "2025": [
     25.5,
     28.3,
     46.3
    ],
    "2026": [
     22.6,
     25.6,
     51.8
    ]
   }
  }
 },
 "robustness_not_graded": {
  "no_context_mean_2025": 1592.7,
  "no_context_mean_2026": 1570.3,
  "no_context_ratio": 0.98594,
  "no_context_forecast": 1573
 },
 "h1_distributions_pct": {
  "2024": [
   0.4,
   6.5,
   14.9,
   20.9,
   18.8,
   18.3,
   12.8,
   7.3
  ],
  "2025": [
   0.4,
   5.7,
   15.0,
   22.1,
   18.8,
   17.8,
   13.2,
   7.0
  ],
  "2026": [
   0.5,
   6.7,
   14.7,
   21.2,
   19.3,
   17.1,
   13.6,
   6.9
  ]
 },
 "cuts_2026_run": {
  "Age 18-34": {
   "mean_2025": 1625,
   "mean_2026": 1650,
   "change_pct": 1.5,
   "n": 635
  },
  "Age 35-54": {
   "mean_2025": 1674,
   "mean_2026": 1666,
   "change_pct": -0.5,
   "n": 657
  },
  "Age 55+": {
   "mean_2025": 1605,
   "mean_2026": 1577,
   "change_pct": -1.8,
   "n": 708
  },
  "Income Under $35k": {
   "mean_2025": 613,
   "mean_2026": 608,
   "change_pct": -0.8,
   "n": 513
  },
  "Income $35k-$75k": {
   "mean_2025": 936,
   "mean_2026": 927,
   "change_pct": -1.0,
   "n": 634
  },
  "Income $75k-$125k": {
   "mean_2025": 1669,
   "mean_2026": 1673,
   "change_pct": 0.2,
   "n": 405
  },
  "Income $125k+": {
   "mean_2025": 3206,
   "mean_2026": 3194,
   "change_pct": -0.4,
   "n": 448
  }
 },
 "source": "Deloitte, annual U.S. holiday retail survey",
 "deloitte_sources": {
  "survey_page": "https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/retail-distribution/holiday-retail-sales-consumer-survey.html",
  "release_2025": "https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/about/press-room/deloitte-holiday-spending-declines-amid-economic-uncertainty.html",
  "release_2024": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/deloitte-holiday-shoppers-expected-to-increase-spending-302275500.html",
  "release_2023": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/deloitte-holiday-shoppers-are-back-in-the-spirit-of-spending-301958111.html",
  "report_2025_pdf": "https://www.deloitte.com/content/dam/insights/articles/2025/us188488_cic-holiday-retail/pdf/DI_2025-Holiday-Survey.pdf",
  "fielding_2025": "4,270 consumers, August 27 to September 5, 2025; released October 15, 2025",
  "fielding_2024": "4,114 consumers, August 30 to September 6, 2024; released October 15, 2024",
  "secondary_2024_values": "69% expected higher prices and 30% expected the economy to weaken, as stated in Deloitte's 2025 report",
  "not_graded": "Deloitte's separate holiday retail sales forecast (September 10, 2026: up 4.0% to 4.8%) is a different measure."
 },
 "hashes": {
  "registration_sha256": "86828b2a2539e2107dd8d6aed9c0f96e6d4fd0628020b34c9f3b748d369fe8ad",
  "questionnaire_sha256": "2fc40de9d627df43ab2b4c66962fa15592c321afeb16239cf9620f4298e76ecf",
  "registered_utc": "2026-10-01T17:57:23Z"
 },
 "note": "Deloitte is not involved in this forecast. Synthetic panel, not a probability sample.",
 "revisions": []
}