{
  "issue": 8,
  "title": "Will households put higher odds on rising unemployment? Our October call",
  "date": "2026-10-14",
  "status": "awaiting_grade",
  "outcome": null,
  "forecast": {
    "mean_subjective_probability_pct": 47.33,
    "exact_numerator": "4733",
    "exact_denominator": "100",
    "valid_value_sum": 47330,
    "target_month": "2026-10",
    "horizon_months": 12,
    "measure": "National mean subjective percent chance that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher 12 months from now, not the unemployment rate or a Yes-response share.",
    "frozen_at_utc": "2026-10-14T20:58:42.649585+00:00",
    "artifact_sha256": "8fb507a521e7fafbf7de96125f584d8d899a9f34e478a6fd502a6c147bafa98c"
  },
  "protocol": {
    "locked_at_utc": "2026-10-14T20:47:38.511208+00:00",
    "sha256": "e134cb74da3220279f8301ca85bc68be6941e033255b342c6fe2a1bfcd521a9a"
  },
  "grading": {
    "baseline_B_pct": 43.865966796875,
    "tolerance_T_pp": 1.07501220703125,
    "win_rule": "abs(F-Y)<abs(B-Y) AND abs(F-Y)<=T",
    "ties": "Fail",
    "tolerance_source": "Median of 23 absolute monthly changes across October 2024–September 2026. Historical movement threshold, not a confidence interval.",
    "winning_Y_region_inclusive_pct": [
      46.25498779296875,
      48.40501220703125
    ],
    "Y": "First published full-precision October 2026 national value in the official workbook, Unemployment Expectations sheet, column B, row with YYYYMM=202610. Rounded press values are not substitutes.",
    "revision_policy": "Archive first-release workbook bytes, hash, timestamp and value; preserve later revisions separately.",
    "expected_release_date": "2026-11-09",
    "expected_release_time_ET": "11:00",
    "expected_release_time_UTC": "16:00",
    "current_outcome": "Not released; grade pending."
  },
  "denominators": {
    "assigned_n": 1000,
    "attempted_person_n": 1000,
    "unattempted_person_n": 0,
    "valid_n": 1000,
    "invalid_n": 0,
    "missing_n": 0
  },
  "responses": {
    "35": 201,
    "45": 524,
    "55": 116,
    "65": 159
  },
  "method": {
    "population_target": "U.S. household heads",
    "synthetic_proxy": "ACS adults aged 18+ who are housing-unit reference persons, excluding group quarters, across 50 states and DC.",
    "frame_years": "2020–2024",
    "unique_source_people": 1000,
    "distinct_demographic_prompts": 977,
    "primary_weights": "Equal 1.0; approximate source-derived selection does not recreate a human probability sample.",
    "aggregation": "Exact arithmetic mean of valid generated numeric texts; no calibration, clipping or imputation.",
    "timing": "Before release, during October fieldwork; not before fieldwork.",
    "limitations": [
      "All answers take only four values. Exact mean indicates arithmetic precision, not fine individual judgments or forecast certainty.",
      "Shared model, fixed seed and repeated prompts; no human margin of error.",
      "Reference persons proxy SCE household heads; recruitment and human survey weights are not reproduced.",
      "Cached urbanicity is a PUMA-name heuristic.",
      "One future comparison does not establish general accuracy."
    ]
  },
  "instrument": {
    "Q3intro": "In some of the following questions, we will ask you to think about the percent chance of something happening in the future. Your answers can range from 0 to 100, where 0 means there is absolutely no chance, and 100 means that it is absolutely certain.\n\nFor example, numbers like:\n\n2 and 5 percent may indicate \"almost no chance\"\n18 percent or so may mean \"not much chance\"\n47 or 52 percent chance may be a \"pretty even chance\"\n83 percent or so may mean a \"very good chance\"\n95 or 98 percent chance may be \"almost certain\"",
    "Q4intro": "Next, we would like to ask you for your expectations about the economy.\n\nOf course, no one can know the future. These questions have no right or wrong answers - we are interested in your views and opinions.",
    "Q4new": "What do you think is the percent chance that 12 months from now the unemployment rate in the U.S. will be higher than it is now?",
    "response_instruction": "Return one number from 0 to 100, inclusive."
  },
  "instrument_adaptation": "Official probability/economy introductions and Q4new retained; residential-mobility practice omitted, graphical box replaced with numeric instruction.",
  "sources": {
    "workbook": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/sce/sce/downloads/data/frbny-sce-data.xlsx",
    "questionnaire": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/sce/sce/downloads/data/frbny-sce-survey-core-module-public-questionnaire.pdf",
    "calendar": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/calendars/i-nov26.html",
    "terms": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/privacy/termsofuse"
  },
  "source_snapshot": {
    "workbook_sha256": "6512ecdeea161d2d96cc61e7d01bcbc5912495a245800d22f80187249b270280",
    "questionnaire_sha256": "e30e2ef1f925cb90aef1d5d6c9b13c6307b1f311e40c5b894ad27ddf69066e93"
  },
  "attribution_and_disclaimer": {
    "questions": "Some survey questions were taken or adapted from the Survey of Consumer Expectations, ©2013-2020 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The SCE questions are available without charge at https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce and may be used subject to license terms posted there. The New York Fed did not participate in or endorse the Lewsearch October 2026 synthetic unemployment-expectations study, and the New York Fed disclaims any responsibility or legal liability for the administration of the survey and the analysis and interpretation of data collected.",
    "data": "Source: Survey of Consumer Expectations, ©2013-2020 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The SCE data are available without charge at https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce and may be used subject to license terms posted there. The New York Fed disclaims any responsibility for this analysis and interpretation of Survey of Consumer Expectations data."
  }
}