{
  "study": "Tesla Q2 2026 earnings & brand trust — U.S. national panel (reactive pulse)",
  "news_hook": "LinkedIn trending: Tesla Q2 earnings + brand trust debate (July 23, 2026)",
  "run_started_at": "2026-07-23T13:30:30.172Z",
  "run_finished_at": "2026-07-23T13:33:46.543Z",
  "audience": {
    "label": "U.S. national ACS-weighted panel (national_us)",
    "market_id": "national_us",
    "n_requested": 2000,
    "n_sampled": 2000,
    "disclosure": "Synthetic panel methodology; not a probability sample. Reactive news read, not investment advice."
  },
  "methodology": {
    "model": "lewis-v17",
    "pipeline": "sampleAgentsForMarket(national_us) → buildStandardStudyContext → dateline + news stimulus → runWave → applyTypeCalibration",
    "temporal_grounding": [
      "Today is Thursday, July 23, 2026.",
      "News context: Tesla reported Q2 2026 earnings on July 23. Revenue rose about 26% year over year to $28.2 billion, but operating profit fell sharply and the company reported negative free cash flow as capital spending on AI, robotaxi, and Optimus robotics doubled. Shares fell in after-hours trading. Industry coverage also highlights a long-running brand-trust debate: Tesla remains one of the most recognized EV brands but ranks poorly on consumer trust scores in recent EV industry reports, with Elon Musk's public profile often cited as a factor."
    ]
  },
  "questions": [
    {
      "id": "q1_earnings_read",
      "question": "After Tesla's latest earnings — higher revenue but lower profits and heavy spending on robotaxi and AI — which comes closest to your view?",
      "options": [
        "The spending is worth it if Tesla wins on robotaxi and AI",
        "Sales recovery is good, but the profit drop is a real warning sign",
        "Musk is asking investors to fund a bet that isn't proven yet",
        "I don't follow Tesla closely enough to say",
        "Tesla is already in trouble regardless of this quarter"
      ],
      "question_type": "approval",
      "n_responses": 2000,
      "distribution_calibrated": [
        {
          "option": "The spending is worth it if Tesla wins on robotaxi and AI",
          "count": 116,
          "pct": 5.8
        },
        {
          "option": "Sales recovery is good, but the profit drop is a real warning sign",
          "count": 339,
          "pct": 16.9
        },
        {
          "option": "Musk is asking investors to fund a bet that isn't proven yet",
          "count": 1434,
          "pct": 71.7
        },
        {
          "option": "I don't follow Tesla closely enough to say",
          "count": 38,
          "pct": 1.9
        },
        {
          "option": "Tesla is already in trouble regardless of this quarter",
          "count": 73,
          "pct": 3.7
        }
      ],
      "signal": {
        "signal_score": 0.8088168293386729,
        "signal_label": "Very Strong",
        "signal_bars": 4,
        "reliability_score": 0.8815191511990046,
        "reliability_label": "Very High",
        "reliability_tooltip": "Lewis's panel produced a consistent, stable result across all demographic subgroups.",
        "clarity_score": 0.719958435953823,
        "clarity_label": "Clear",
        "clarity_tooltip": "A strong majority of agents aligned on this option.",
        "within_moe": false,
        "dominant_result": false,
        "not_sure_top": false
      },
      "elapsed_s": 70.3
    },
    {
      "id": "q2_purchase_intent",
      "question": "Would you consider buying a Tesla vehicle in the next two years?",
      "options": [
        "Definitely yes",
        "Probably yes",
        "Probably not",
        "Definitely not",
        "Not sure / don't need a car"
      ],
      "question_type": "consumer_behavior",
      "n_responses": 2000,
      "distribution_calibrated": [
        {
          "option": "Definitely yes",
          "count": 127,
          "pct": 6.4
        },
        {
          "option": "Probably yes",
          "count": 149,
          "pct": 7.4
        },
        {
          "option": "Probably not",
          "count": 1574,
          "pct": 78.7
        },
        {
          "option": "Definitely not",
          "count": 129,
          "pct": 6.4
        },
        {
          "option": "Not sure / don't need a car",
          "count": 22,
          "pct": 1.1
        }
      ],
      "signal": {
        "signal_score": 0.8179139143797536,
        "signal_label": "Very Strong",
        "signal_bars": 4,
        "reliability_score": 0.8678690183011895,
        "reliability_label": "Very High",
        "reliability_tooltip": "Lewis's panel produced a consistent, stable result across all demographic subgroups.",
        "clarity_score": 0.7568576762535542,
        "clarity_label": "Clear",
        "clarity_tooltip": "A strong majority of agents aligned on this option.",
        "within_moe": false,
        "dominant_result": false,
        "not_sure_top": false
      },
      "elapsed_s": 61.9
    },
    {
      "id": "q3_musk_effect",
      "question": "How much does Elon Musk's public profile affect your view of Tesla as a company?",
      "options": [
        "A lot — it makes me view Tesla more negatively",
        "Some — it colors my view but the product still matters most",
        "Some — it makes me view Tesla more positively",
        "Not much — I judge the cars and services on their own",
        "Not sure"
      ],
      "question_type": "approval",
      "n_responses": 2000,
      "distribution_calibrated": [
        {
          "option": "A lot — it makes me view Tesla more negatively",
          "count": 780,
          "pct": 39
        },
        {
          "option": "Some — it colors my view but the product still matters most",
          "count": 1087,
          "pct": 54.4
        },
        {
          "option": "Some — it makes me view Tesla more positively",
          "count": 46,
          "pct": 2.3
        },
        {
          "option": "Not much — I judge the cars and services on their own",
          "count": 29,
          "pct": 1.4
        },
        {
          "option": "Not sure",
          "count": 58,
          "pct": 2.9
        }
      ],
      "signal": {
        "signal_score": 0.6376654939682956,
        "signal_label": "Strong",
        "signal_bars": 3,
        "reliability_score": 0.833668000069964,
        "reliability_label": "Very High",
        "reliability_tooltip": "Lewis's panel produced a consistent, stable result across all demographic subgroups.",
        "clarity_score": 0.3981068753995898,
        "clarity_label": "Modest Lean",
        "clarity_tooltip": "One option leads, but a meaningful minority disagrees.",
        "within_moe": false,
        "dominant_result": false,
        "not_sure_top": false
      },
      "elapsed_s": 62.8
    }
  ]
}