SPECIAL REPORT
The 2026 Senate Forecast
35 races. One national picture.
Issue 11 · Published October 31, 2026 · Forecast cutoff October 31, 2026, 12:00 p.m. ET · Grade: Pending
On November 3, 2026, voters in 35 states voted to elect U.S. senators: 33 in regular elections, plus special elections in Florida and Ohio. This report forecasts each race’s vote shares and leader, and will grade every forecast in public against the official results.
35 races · Forecast cutoff October 31, 2026, 12:00 p.m. ET · Certified results: Pending · Leaders: Democrats 17 · Republicans 17 · Independents 1 · Toss-ups 7
Preliminary results snapshot
A snapshot retrieved November 4, 2026 at 12:36 p.m. Eastern implies an average miss of 3.43 percentage points across all 35 races. Decision Desk HQ had called 33: 29 forecast leaders matched those calls and 4 did not. Alaska and Mississippi remained uncalled. Counts and calls may change.
Each share below divides votes for the named non-Republican by votes for those two named candidates; other candidates are excluded. Alaska uses first-choice votes here, solely as a provisional comparison. Its registered grading rule requires the final ranked-choice round. The official pass or fail remains pending until all 35 results are certified.
Source: Decision Desk HQ. Each race has its own last-reported time, linked below; the counts are not all updated simultaneously. This is an unofficial snapshot, not a certified result.
Show all 35 preliminary calculations
| State and scored candidates | Forecast | Counted votes | Count share | Miss | Winner call | Source count time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AlaskaMary Peltola / Dan Sullivan | 49.3% | 102,578 / 102,071 | 50.12% | 0.82 pp | Uncalled | Nov 4, 10:18 AM EST |
| AlabamaEverett Wess / Barry Moore | 40.9% | 758,412 / 917,398 | 45.26% | 4.36 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 11:45 AM EST |
| ArkansasHallie Shoffner / Tom Cotton | 40.6% | 375,643 / 480,671 | 43.87% | 3.27 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 9:28 AM EST |
| ColoradoJohn Hickenlooper / Mark Baisley | 60.7% | 1,310,937 / 773,936 | 62.88% | 2.18 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 4:49 AM EST |
| DelawareChris Coons / Mike Katz | 63.5% | 240,347 / 137,764 | 63.57% | 0.07 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 3:52 AM EST |
| FloridaAngie Nixon / Ashley Moody | 46.2% | 3,968,811 / 4,207,774 | 48.54% | 2.34 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 3:00 AM EST |
| GeorgiaJon Ossoff / Mike Collins | 55.2% | 2,463,132 / 1,711,322 | 59.00% | 3.80 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 4:25 AM EST |
| IowaJosh Turek / Ashley Hinson | 49.6% | 683,429 / 628,799 | 52.08% | 2.48 pp | Incorrect | Nov 4, 11:48 AM EST |
| IdahoTodd Achilles / Jim Risch | 41.8% | 215,763 / 366,445 | 37.06% | 4.74 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 4:25 AM EST |
| IllinoisJuliana Stratton / Don Tracy | 58.0% | 2,373,044 / 1,477,661 | 61.63% | 3.63 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 4:56 AM EST |
| KansasAdam Hamilton / Roger Marshall | 49.9% | 556,414 / 503,230 | 52.51% | 2.61 pp | Incorrect | Nov 4, 11:35 AM EST |
| KentuckyCharles Booker / Andy Barr | 39.8% | 612,397 / 784,181 | 43.85% | 4.05 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 11:24 AM EST |
| LouisianaJamie Davis / Julia Letlow | 42.2% | 720,106 / 745,963 | 49.12% | 6.92 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 2:12 AM EST |
| MassachusettsEd Markey / John Deaton | 67.0% | 1,502,669 / 741,934 | 66.95% | 0.05 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 11:44 AM EST |
| MaineTroy Jackson / Susan Collins | 51.3% | 370,600 / 324,784 | 53.29% | 1.99 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 12:04 PM EST |
| MichiganAbdul El-Sayed / Mike Rogers | 52.1% | 2,503,652 / 2,168,102 | 53.59% | 1.49 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 11:19 AM EST |
| MinnesotaPeggy Flanagan / Michele Tafoya | 53.8% | 1,520,756 / 1,232,698 | 55.23% | 1.43 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 3:49 AM EST |
| MississippiScott Colom / Cindy Hyde-Smith | 44.4% | 465,606 / 463,606 | 50.11% | 5.71 pp | Uncalled | Nov 4, 11:29 AM EST |
| MontanaSeth Bodnar / Kurt Alme | 44.1% | 156,419 / 198,199 | 44.11% | 0.01 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 4:26 AM EST |
| North CarolinaRoy Cooper / Michael Whatley | 54.7% | 2,463,773 / 1,640,663 | 60.03% | 5.33 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 4:21 AM EST |
| NebraskaDan Osborn / Pete Ricketts | 50.1% | 322,144 / 372,274 | 46.39% | 3.71 pp | Incorrect | Nov 4, 12:13 PM EST |
| New HampshireChris Pappas / John E. Sununu | 54.2% | 328,387 / 243,230 | 57.45% | 3.25 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 3:12 AM EST |
| New JerseyCory Booker / Justin Murphy | 60.6% | 1,781,880 / 1,013,308 | 63.75% | 3.15 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 9:51 AM EST |
| New MexicoBen Ray Luján / Larry Marker | 59.0% | 455,165 / 265,557 | 63.15% | 4.15 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 3:22 AM EST |
| OhioSherrod Brown / Jon Husted | 50.9% | 2,301,042 / 2,077,750 | 52.55% | 1.65 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 5:40 AM EST |
| OklahomaN'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas / Kevin Hern | 37.1% | 430,993 / 629,971 | 40.62% | 3.52 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 3:49 AM EST |
| OregonJeff Merkley / David Brock Smith | 63.4% | 862,755 / 617,053 | 58.30% | 5.10 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 4:30 AM EST |
| Rhode IslandJack Reed / Raymond McKay | 66.0% | 235,276 / 103,996 | 69.35% | 3.35 pp | Correct | Nov 3, 11:20 PM EST |
| South CarolinaAnnie Andrews / Darline Graham | 48.1% | 1,042,362 / 951,165 | 52.29% | 4.19 pp | Incorrect | Nov 4, 2:25 AM EST |
| South DakotaBrian Bengs / Mike Rounds | 44.4% | 119,543 / 184,437 | 39.33% | 5.07 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 4:15 AM EST |
| TennesseeMarquita Bradshaw / Bill Hagerty | 37.5% | 886,969 / 1,138,264 | 43.80% | 6.30 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 3:16 AM EST |
| TexasJames Talarico / Ken Paxton | 50.5% | 5,450,662 / 4,276,190 | 56.04% | 5.54 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 12:02 PM EST |
| VirginiaMark Warner / Bert Mizusawa | 59.7% | 2,176,244 / 1,385,569 | 61.10% | 1.40 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 3:15 AM EST |
| West VirginiaRachel Fetty Anderson / Shelley Moore Capito | 30.7% | 172,922 / 266,068 | 39.39% | 8.69 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 2:36 AM EST |
| WyomingJames Byrd / Harriet Hageman | 31.1% | 65,097 / 122,157 | 34.76% | 3.66 pp | Correct | Nov 4, 2:02 AM EST |
A preliminary comparison
On these same 35 changing counts, Lewsearch's average miss was 3.43 percentage points and Synthetic Users' was 4.21 points. Lewsearch was closer in 18 races and Synthetic Users in 17; each matched 29 of the 33 calls, missed 4, and had two uncalled races. Lewsearch published October 31; Synthetic Users' desk was updated November 2.
For each organization we normalized the same two named candidates' forecast shares and compared them with their normalized shares of the same reported vote count. Synthetic Users' candidate shares are shown to one decimal, which limits the precision of our calculation. We do not convert its displayed margins directly: other candidates and undecided responses can make that shortcut differ materially from the named-pair shares, as in Montana and Idaho. About 73% of the mean difference comes from Montana, where the named pair excludes another major candidate. These 35 races, different publication dates, preliminary counts and Alaska's unresolved ranked-choice round limit the conclusion; this is not proof of general superiority. See the comparison and terms discussion.
The forecast map
Select a state, or choose one from the list, to open its race below the map. Color shows the forecast leader; shade shows the predicted margin. The table further down lists every race.
A map of the 50 states. The 35 states with a Senate race on November 3, 2026, are buttons in alphabetical order; each opens its race panel below the map. The 15 states without a Senate election in 2026 are light gray and not selectable: Arizona, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Indiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New York, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Utah, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin. Washington, D.C., has no senators. The race table below lists every race as text.
Predicted margin (points)
Under 33–55–88+Senate control
The row shows all 100 seats: the 65 not up in 2026, muted, and the 35 races colored by each forecast leader. Democrats and the independents who caucus with them reach 51 seats on these forecasts, a majority.
- Democrats not up in 2026: 32
- Independents not up · caucus with Democrats: 2
- Democrat leads: 17
- Independent leads · caucus not stated: 1
- Republican leads: 17
- Republicans not up in 2026: 31
Seats not up: source, as of October 27, 2026. The two independents not up in 2026 caucus with the Democrats.
Close races
The 6 races with the smallest predicted margins.
- KansasRoger Marshall (Republican) leads · toss-upPredicted margin: R +0.2Open the race panel
- NebraskaDan Osborn (Independent) leads · toss-upPredicted margin: I +0.2Open the race panel
- IowaAshley Hinson (Republican) leads · toss-upPredicted margin: R +0.8Open the race panel
- TexasJames Talarico (Democrat) leads · toss-upPredicted margin: D +1.0Open the race panel
- AlaskaDan Sullivan (Republican) leads · toss-upPredicted margin: R +1.4Open the race panel
- OhioSherrod Brown (Democrat) leads · toss-upPredicted margin: D +1.8Open the race panel
All 35 races
This table is a complete text alternative to the map. Sort by any column, or search by state or candidate; select a state to open its race panel.
35 races shown
| Details | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular | RBarry MooreDEverett Wess | 59.1%40.9% | R +18.2 | Republican | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | RDan SullivanInc.DMary Peltola | 50.7%49.3% | R +1.4 | Republican (toss-up) | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Ranked-choice voting | ||||||||
| Regular | RTom CottonInc.DHallie Shoffner | 59.4%40.6% | R +18.8 | Republican | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | DJohn HickenlooperInc.RMark Baisley | 60.7%39.3% | D +21.4 | Democrat | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | DChris CoonsInc.RMike Katz | 63.5%36.5% | D +27.0 | Democrat | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Special | RAshley MoodyInc.DAngie Nixon | 53.8%46.2% | R +7.6 | Republican | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | DJon OssoffInc.RMike Collins | 55.2%44.8% | D +10.4 | Democrat | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Majority required; a runoff follows if no candidate passes 50% | ||||||||
| Regular | RJim RischInc.ITodd Achilles | 58.2%41.8% | R +16.4 | Republican | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | DJuliana StrattonRDon Tracy | 58.0%42.0% | D +16.0 | Democrat | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | RAshley HinsonDJosh Turek | 50.4%49.6% | R +0.8 | Republican (toss-up) | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | RRoger MarshallInc.DAdam Hamilton | 50.1%49.9% | R +0.2 | Republican (toss-up) | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | RAndy BarrDCharles Booker | 60.2%39.8% | R +20.4 | Republican | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | RJulia LetlowDJamie Davis | 57.8%42.2% | R +15.6 | Republican | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | DTroy JacksonRSusan CollinsInc. | 51.3%48.7% | D +2.6 | Democrat (toss-up) | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Ranked-choice voting | ||||||||
| Regular | DEd MarkeyInc.RJohn Deaton | 67.0%33.0% | D +34.0 | Democrat | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | DAbdul El-SayedRMike Rogers | 52.1%47.9% | D +4.2 | Democrat | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | DPeggy FlanaganRMichele Tafoya | 53.8%46.2% | D +7.6 | Democrat | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | RCindy Hyde-SmithInc.DScott Colom | 55.6%44.4% | R +11.2 | Republican | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | RKurt AlmeISeth Bodnar | 55.9%44.1% | R +11.8 | Republican | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | IDan OsbornRPete RickettsInc. | 50.1%49.9% | I +0.2 | Independent (toss-up) | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | DChris PappasRJohn E. Sununu | 54.2%45.8% | D +8.4 | Democrat | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | DCory BookerInc.RJustin Murphy | 60.6%39.4% | D +21.2 | Democrat | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | DBen Ray LujánInc.RLarry Marker | 59.0%41.0% | D +18.0 | Democrat | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | DRoy CooperRMichael Whatley | 54.7%45.3% | D +9.4 | Democrat | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Special | DSherrod BrownRJon HustedInc. | 50.9%49.1% | D +1.8 | Democrat (toss-up) | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | RKevin HernDN'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas | 62.9%37.1% | R +25.8 | Republican | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | DJeff MerkleyInc.RDavid Brock Smith | 63.4%36.6% | D +26.8 | Democrat | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | DJack ReedInc.RRaymond McKay | 66.0%34.0% | D +32.0 | Democrat | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | RDarline GrahamInc.DAnnie Andrews | 51.9%48.1% | R +3.8 | Republican | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | RMike RoundsInc.IBrian Bengs | 55.6%44.4% | R +11.2 | Republican | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | RBill HagertyInc.DMarquita Bradshaw | 62.5%37.5% | R +25.0 | Republican | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | DJames TalaricoRKen Paxton | 50.5%49.5% | D +1.0 | Democrat (toss-up) | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | DMark WarnerInc.RBert Mizusawa | 59.7%40.3% | D +19.4 | Democrat | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | RShelley Moore CapitoInc.DRachel Fetty Anderson | 69.3%30.7% | R +38.6 | Republican | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
| Regular | RHarriet HagemanDJames Byrd | 68.9%31.1% | R +37.8 | Republican | Pending | — | ||
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins | ||||||||
Regular election
- Candidates
- RBarry Moore · 59.1%DEverett Wess · 40.9%
- Predicted margin
- R +18.2
- Leader
- Republican
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- RDan Sullivan · 50.7%DMary Peltola · 49.3%
- Predicted margin
- R +1.4
- Leader
- Republican (toss-up)
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Ranked-choice voting
Regular election
- Candidates
- RTom Cotton · 59.4%DHallie Shoffner · 40.6%
- Predicted margin
- R +18.8
- Leader
- Republican
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- DJohn Hickenlooper · 60.7%RMark Baisley · 39.3%
- Predicted margin
- D +21.4
- Leader
- Democrat
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- DChris Coons · 63.5%RMike Katz · 36.5%
- Predicted margin
- D +27.0
- Leader
- Democrat
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Special election
- Candidates
- RAshley Moody · 53.8%DAngie Nixon · 46.2%
- Predicted margin
- R +7.6
- Leader
- Republican
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- DJon Ossoff · 55.2%RMike Collins · 44.8%
- Predicted margin
- D +10.4
- Leader
- Democrat
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Majority required; a runoff follows if no candidate passes 50%
Regular election
- Candidates
- RJim Risch · 58.2%ITodd Achilles · 41.8%
- Predicted margin
- R +16.4
- Leader
- Republican
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- DJuliana Stratton · 58.0%RDon Tracy · 42.0%
- Predicted margin
- D +16.0
- Leader
- Democrat
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- RAshley Hinson · 50.4%DJosh Turek · 49.6%
- Predicted margin
- R +0.8
- Leader
- Republican (toss-up)
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- RRoger Marshall · 50.1%DAdam Hamilton · 49.9%
- Predicted margin
- R +0.2
- Leader
- Republican (toss-up)
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- RAndy Barr · 60.2%DCharles Booker · 39.8%
- Predicted margin
- R +20.4
- Leader
- Republican
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- RJulia Letlow · 57.8%DJamie Davis · 42.2%
- Predicted margin
- R +15.6
- Leader
- Republican
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- DTroy Jackson · 51.3%RSusan Collins · 48.7%
- Predicted margin
- D +2.6
- Leader
- Democrat (toss-up)
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Ranked-choice voting
Regular election
- Candidates
- DEd Markey · 67.0%RJohn Deaton · 33.0%
- Predicted margin
- D +34.0
- Leader
- Democrat
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- DAbdul El-Sayed · 52.1%RMike Rogers · 47.9%
- Predicted margin
- D +4.2
- Leader
- Democrat
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- DPeggy Flanagan · 53.8%RMichele Tafoya · 46.2%
- Predicted margin
- D +7.6
- Leader
- Democrat
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- RCindy Hyde-Smith · 55.6%DScott Colom · 44.4%
- Predicted margin
- R +11.2
- Leader
- Republican
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- RKurt Alme · 55.9%ISeth Bodnar · 44.1%
- Predicted margin
- R +11.8
- Leader
- Republican
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- IDan Osborn · 50.1%RPete Ricketts · 49.9%
- Predicted margin
- I +0.2
- Leader
- Independent (toss-up)
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- DChris Pappas · 54.2%RJohn E. Sununu · 45.8%
- Predicted margin
- D +8.4
- Leader
- Democrat
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- DCory Booker · 60.6%RJustin Murphy · 39.4%
- Predicted margin
- D +21.2
- Leader
- Democrat
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- DBen Ray Luján · 59.0%RLarry Marker · 41.0%
- Predicted margin
- D +18.0
- Leader
- Democrat
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- DRoy Cooper · 54.7%RMichael Whatley · 45.3%
- Predicted margin
- D +9.4
- Leader
- Democrat
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Special election
- Candidates
- DSherrod Brown · 50.9%RJon Husted · 49.1%
- Predicted margin
- D +1.8
- Leader
- Democrat (toss-up)
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- RKevin Hern · 62.9%DN'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas · 37.1%
- Predicted margin
- R +25.8
- Leader
- Republican
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- DJeff Merkley · 63.4%RDavid Brock Smith · 36.6%
- Predicted margin
- D +26.8
- Leader
- Democrat
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- DJack Reed · 66.0%RRaymond McKay · 34.0%
- Predicted margin
- D +32.0
- Leader
- Democrat
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- RDarline Graham · 51.9%DAnnie Andrews · 48.1%
- Predicted margin
- R +3.8
- Leader
- Republican
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- RMike Rounds · 55.6%IBrian Bengs · 44.4%
- Predicted margin
- R +11.2
- Leader
- Republican
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- RBill Hagerty · 62.5%DMarquita Bradshaw · 37.5%
- Predicted margin
- R +25.0
- Leader
- Republican
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- DJames Talarico · 50.5%RKen Paxton · 49.5%
- Predicted margin
- D +1.0
- Leader
- Democrat (toss-up)
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- DMark Warner · 59.7%RBert Mizusawa · 40.3%
- Predicted margin
- D +19.4
- Leader
- Democrat
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- RShelley Moore Capito · 69.3%DRachel Fetty Anderson · 30.7%
- Predicted margin
- R +38.6
- Leader
- Republican
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
Regular election
- Candidates
- RHarriet Hageman · 68.9%DJames Byrd · 31.1%
- Predicted margin
- R +37.8
- Leader
- Republican
- Result
- Pending
- Error
- —
More on this race
Voting system: Plurality: the candidate with the most votes wins
How we will score it
These rules were frozen on October 31, 2026, 12:00 p.m. ET, before publication.
- Winner calls
- Correct calls out of 35: pending.
- Error metric
- Average miss. Each race's miss is the gap, in points, between our forecast and the certified result for the leading non-Republican candidate's share of the two-way vote against the Republican. Alaska uses the final ranked-choice round.
- Pass rule
- The forecast passes if its mean error across all 35 races is 4.0 points or less.
- Toss-ups
- Every race is called. A margin under 3.0 points is marked toss-up and still counts as a call.
The grade is Pending until the official results are certified.
Sources
The race list, seat classes, term ends and voting systems were verified against Senate.gov and state election offices, except where a race notes that its candidate list comes from county ballots; the 15 states without a 2026 Senate election are Arizona, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Indiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New York, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Utah, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin. Candidate names come only from election officials’ certified candidate lists and ballots. Map: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic boundaries (2017) via us-atlas, ISC license.
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