The Lewsearch Report/Issue 07
Awaiting grade · Deloitte publishes in mid-October
The 2026 Holiday Budget, Called Before Deloitte Publishes It
Every fall, Deloitte asks U.S. shoppers how much they plan to spend over the holidays and reports the average. Last year it was $1,595. This year's number is due in mid-October. Our forecast, made by a method we registered before the panel answered, is $1,589: a hair under last year.
Our forecast
$1,589
Average planned holiday spending per shopper. The graded number.
Deloitte, 2025
$1,595
Last year's average. The number to beat.
We win if Deloitte prints
$1,509–1,591
Within $80 of our number and closer to it than to last year's.
Why this forecast
Deloitte fields its survey at the turn of August into September (August 27 to September 5 last year) and has published on October 15 in each of the last two years. The 2026 answer most likely exists already, in Deloitte's files. We have not seen it. That is the setup of our Blind Challenge, where a research team brings a study it has finished and we answer before seeing the results. Here we take the same test in public, on a number retailers and reporters watch every fall.
The call is close to flat, and the window to win is narrow. A forecast that sits this near last year's number only wins if the year moves the way it says, by the right amount.
The rule
WIN if Deloitte's 2026 headline average lands within $80 of $1,589 and closer to $1,589 than to $1,595. Both must hold. A tie is not closer.
- $1,560
- Win
- $29 from our number, $35 from last year's.
- $1,600
- Miss
- Inside the band, but closer to last year's $1,595.
- $1,500
- Miss
- Lower than last year, as we said, but $89 from our number.
Graded against the average planned spend in Deloitte's 2026 holiday consumer survey. Deloitte's separate forecast of total holiday retail sales, published September 10 (up 4.0% to 4.8%), is a different measure and plays no part in the grade. If Deloitte has not published a comparable average by November 15, 2026, the Issue is recorded as ungradeable. Nothing on this page changes after the release except the grade.
How we got $1,589
We asked 2,000 simulated U.S. adults the same holiday budget question three times. Each run was set on September 2 of a different year, 2024, 2025 and 2026, with the economic background people could have read that day. The same 2,000 answered all three.
In total, how much do you expect to spend during the upcoming year-end holiday season? Include gifts, holiday food and entertaining, decorations, clothing and other items for yourself or your home, and holiday experiences such as travel and going out.
| Run | Inflation, July | Unemployment, July | Gas, late August | Michigan sentiment, August |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 2, 2024 | 2.9% | 4.3% | $3.31 | 67.9 |
| Sept 2, 2025 | 2.7% | 4.2% | $3.15 | 58.2 |
| Sept 2, 2026 | 3.4% | 4.1% | $4.09 | 51.7 |
July's 12-month CPI change and unemployment rate (Bureau of Labor Statistics, the latest published before each date), average regular gasoline in the fourth week of August (Energy Information Administration), and the final August index of consumer sentiment (University of Michigan). One template, same wording each year.
| Year | Panel average | Deloitte average |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $1,639 | $1,778 |
| 2025 | $1,634 | $1,595 |
| 2026 | $1,628 | Mid-October |
The panel's own average landed 8% below Deloitte's in 2024 and 2% above it in 2025. The registered recipe uses the change instead of the level: the 2026 run averaged 0.4% below the 2025 run, and 0.4% below $1,595 is $1,589. Sampling noise in that change spans $1,560 to $1,619 (95% interval), a range that includes last year's $1,595. The panel's 2026 average itself, $1,628, is on the record and is not graded.
The main risk
Run the same recipe one year back and it misses badly. The panel's 2024 and 2025 runs differ by 0.3%. Deloitte's average fell 10.3%, from $1,778 to $1,595. The recipe would have forecast $1,772 for 2025, $177 too high. Given a different year's background, the panel's dollar answers barely move.
Some answers did move, including the direction of spending. Asked whether they will spend more, the same or less than last year, 51.8% of the panel said less in the 2026 run, up from 46.3% in 2025 and 45.8% in 2024. That points the same direction as the forecast, more strongly. The same answer barely moved from 2024 to 2025, though, the year Deloitte's average fell 10.3%. We registered the dollar question as the forecast, so the graded number stays $1,589.
Also frozen, not graded
The same runs answered two of Deloitte's other headline topics. Each forecast adds the panel's 2025 to 2026 change to Deloitte's 2025 figure. Our wording may differ from Deloitte's, so these are published for the record only.
| Measure | Deloitte 2025 | Our 2026 forecast | Same recipe for 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expect higher prices on holiday items | 77% | 83.3% | 62.4% (actual 77%) |
| Expect the economy to weaken in the year ahead | 57% | 58.5% | 29.0% (actual 57%) |
Both backtests miss by wide margins. They start from Deloitte's 2024 figures as its 2025 report states them: 69% expected higher prices and 30% expected the economy to weaken. On the economy, the panel answered about the same in every run (61% to 63% weaker) while Deloitte's figure nearly doubled.
| Age 18 to 34 | $1,650 | +1.5% |
| Age 35 to 54 | $1,666 | -0.5% |
| Age 55 and up | $1,577 | -1.8% |
| Income under $35k | $608 | -0.8% |
| Income $35k to $75k | $927 | -1.0% |
| Income $75k to $125k | $1,673 | +0.2% |
| Income $125k and up | $3,194 | -0.4% |
Income bands as the simulated respondents carry them; the top two split at $125,000 or $150,000, depending on the source market.
Without the background
We also ran the 2025 and 2026 questions with the date alone and no economic background. That version fell 1.4% from one year to the next, which by the same recipe would give $1,573. It was registered as a check and is not graded.
The record
- Method registered
- 2026-10-01 17:57:23 UTC (1:57 PM ET), before the panel answered
- Panel
- 2,000 simulated U.S. adults from Lewsearch's production agent pool, raked to Census ACS targets on age, gender, race and ethnicity, education, income and region, and to national party identification
- Fielded
- October 1, 2026, on Lewsearch's production model, answer order shuffled for every respondent
- Registration SHA-256
- 86828b2a2539e2107dd8d6aed9c0f96e6d4fd0628020b34c9f3b748d369fe8ad
- Questionnaire SHA-256
- 2fc40de9d627df43ab2b4c66962fa15592c321afeb16239cf9620f4298e76ecf
- Files
- Lewsearch holds the registration and questionnaire files and shares them on request. The hashes above show whether either has changed.
Download the full data (JSON)Deloitte's holiday retail surveyDeloitte's 2025 release ($1,595)
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