The Lewsearch Report/Pulse
Pricier ad-free streaming lowered modeled retention
October 23, 2026 · Exploratory simulation · Not graded
Across the same 24 hypothetical U.S. adult renewal profiles, increasing discovery+ Ad-Free from $9.99 to $11.99 lowered the mean generated probability of keeping it from 44.75% to 42.29%—a 2.46-point change.
| Renewal option | $9.99 ad-free | $11.99 ad-free |
|---|---|---|
| Keep ad-free | 44.75% | 42.29% |
| Switch to ads | 35.38% | 35.83% |
| Cancel this service | 8.96% | 11.33% |
| Unsure | 10.92% | 10.54% |
In the primary comparison, cancellation probability rose 2.38 points and switching to ads rose 0.46. All six tested variants reduced modeled retention, but the decline ranged from 0.21 to 9.54 points. That is a sensitivity range, not a confidence interval; the size of the effect is fragile.
Method and limits
Lewis v17 generated probabilities for 24 hypothetical paid ad-free renewal scenarios in each price arm. Catalog and tier features stayed fixed; option order was counterbalanced. Six variants produced 288 structurally valid outputs, reusing the same profiles. These are probability means, not counts of people choosing an option.
The chart uses raw means before calibration or display adjustments. Generation enforced an exact-sum output grammar; its behavioral effects are unvalidated, and a held-out comparison with unconstrained generation has not been done. No human respondents, actual cancellations or streaming-specific calibrated accuracy were established.
Discovery+ raised both plans: new subscriptions changed October 13; existing renewals change on or after November 12. This controlled simulation holds ads at $6.99, so it does not estimate that rollout’s effect.
Request research materials. Simulation completed October 22, 2026 (Eastern). Treat this as a methods demonstration and a hypothesis for human testing, not consumer evidence or a churn forecast.
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